This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
MEXICO OPEN AT VIDANTA
Purse: $8.1M
Winner's Share: $1.458M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Vallarta, Mexico
Course: Vidanta Vallarta Golf Course
Yardage: 7,456
Par: 71
2023 champion: Tony Finau
Tournament Preview
The first seven weeks of the revamped PGA Tour schedule featured the Hawaii Swing and the vaunted West Coast Swing, which included a combined three Signature Events. There wasn't a bad field in the bunch. There is now. With Week No. 8 comes the Mexico Open, where you have to go all the way to No. 24-ranked Tony Finau to find the best player in the 132-man field. And, frankly, he's probably playing only because he's the defending champion.
Finau originally would've shared top billing with Will Zalatoris. But Zalatoris withdrew after tying for second at Riviera on Sunday, which virtually assured him entry into future Signature Events without having to accrue points in the Mexico Opens of the schedule. So who's here besides Finau? Nicolai Hojgaard, Emiliano Grillo and Ryan Fox round out the players among the top 50 in the OWGR. Others of note -- and we use that term loosely -- include Maverick McNealy, Keith Mitchell, Robert MacIntyre, Francesco Molinari, Padraig Harrington, Jhonattan Vegas, 2023 NCAA Division I champion Fred Biondi and the Coody twins, Parker and Pierceson. Appropriately, there are more than a dozen professionals with ties to Mexico in the field, either via category qualification or sponsor invite, among them Roberto Diaz, Alvaro Ortiz and Raul Pereda, who was a top-5 finisher in PGA Tour Q School and was part of the media interview schedule. The two best players with connections to Mexico, Abraham Ancer and Carlos Ortiz, are now with LIV Golf.
The Mexico Open -- the country's national championship -- has been around since World War II and now, for the third straight year, it is a part of the PGA Tour. The world's best golfers have been playing in the Mexico Open for decades, long before the PGA Tour established a footprint in the country at Mayakoba in 2007.
Lee Trevino heads the list of great golfers who have won it, joined by Ben Crenshaw, Billy Casper, Stewart Cink, Jay Haas, Fred Funk, Bobby Locke, Roberto De Vicenzo and even golfers more familiar to many of us as broadcasters, Frank Nobilo and Bob Rosburg. More recently, the tournament was affiliated with the Korn Ferry Tour, PGA Tour Latinoamerica and even Europe's Challenge Tour. Beginning in 2022, it became a part of the biggest tour in the world, a huge turning point for golf in Mexico and a sense of pride for this nation.
This new chapter in history of the Mexico Open is being played out at the relatively new Vidanta Vallarta Golf Course, which is just eight years old and made its tournament debut in 2022. Fittingly, a Latin player emerged victorious, with Jon Rahm taking home the title. Perhaps not so fittingly, this is another Greg Norman design, as was Mayakoba, which ended its 15-year relationship with the PGA Tour and now plays host to a LIV Golf tournament.
Last year, there also was another PGA Tour event in Mexico. The World Wide Technology Championship was played in early November in Los Cabos and effectively replaced the Mayakoba event, which had the same title sponsor. Since the Tour has not announced the FedEx Cup Fall schedule yet, we don't know for certain whether that tournament will return.
The Mexico Open kind of/sort of took the place of the WGC-Mexico, which was played from 2017 to 2020.
Vallarta is located on the western edge of Mexico, just off the Pacific, some 500-600 miles west of Mexico City. So expect it to be very windy, especially in the afternoon. Befitting a Norman track, the course is super long and wide open off the tee. Unlike with the WGC-Mexico at Chapultepec, this course is at sea level and there is no elevation to make it play shorter. So, nearly 7,500 yards and a par-71 is long, even by today's standards. And it is not a stock-par-71, if that's even possible. There are four par-5s, five par-3s and only nine par-4s. Two of the par-5s exceed 600 yards, including the massive 637-yard 12th. Three of the par-3s are around 200 or more. And four of the par-4s are in the neighborhood of 500 yards. The back-nine has three par-3s and three par-5s. Odd indeed.
In the first two editions, Vidanta ranked middle of the pack in difficulty among courses played on the PGA Tour. But there were some killer holes. In fact, three of them were among the 50 hardest on Tour last year. The double-bogey-laden 475-yard 10th was the absolute third hardest hole on Tour all year. The 505-yard 16th and 226-yard 17th were the other two, which means the back-nine should be a bear. When you add in the 548-yard par-5 18th, one of the easiest holes on the track, the final three-hole swing could deliver some wild swing. Another easy hole was the drivable 297-yard seventh.
The Vidanta website says there's "wall-to-wall paspalum playing surfaces. The layout winds along the Ameca River, providing views of the Sierra Madres from every hole. Large landing areas off the tee give way to large undulating greens protected, in typical Norman fashion, by cavernous bunkers." There are more than 100 bunkers, water coming into play on 13 holes and plenty of those "sandy waste areas" (which are not hazards, you can ground your club!). Most of the golfers should be at least a little familiar with paspalum greens from their time at Mayakoba and other courses in the general region. As a reminder, paspalum tends to run slower, about 11ish on the Stimpmeter.
With 132 players in the field, more than half should make the cut. So don't fear the long shots. And, since you've probably already looked at the DraftKings prices, it had to be a shock to see prices down to $5,000. More than 50 guys in the field are below $6,000.
As for the weather, we're looking at four days in the 80s, even the upper 80s. That might help shorten the course just a bit. There's no rain and little wind in the forecast, though it's hard to believe it won't be blowing hard by the Pacific.
Mexico Open historical factoid: The first winner of the first edition of tournament in 1944 was Al Espinosa, who in fact won the first four Mexico Opens. You may not know the name, but Espinosa was an accomplished golfer, winning nine times on the PGA Tour in the 1920s and '30s and being named to three Ryder Cup teams. He played in 30 majors and finished in the top-25 20 times. He was runner-up twice in majors, at the 1928 PGA and also in the 1929 U.S. Open at Winged Foot, where he lost a 36-hole playoff to Bobby Jones -- by 23 shots!
Key Stats to Winning at Vidanta
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approaches from 200+ yards
• Strokes Gained: Putting
Past Champions
2023 - Tony Finau
2022 - Jon Rahm
Champion's Profile
The winning score jumped from Rahm's 17-under in 2022 to Finau's 24-under last year. With the beautiful weather forecast, we can expect another big-time birdie-fest. Finau hit the ball far, averaging almost 330 yards off the tee, while also ranking 11th in fairways hit. He was second in SG: Off-the-Tee to Rahm, and they both hit an otherworldly 80 percent of their greens in regulation. Finau also ranked 13th in SG: Around-the-Green, first in SG: Tee-to-Green and even eighth in SG: Putting. Basically, he crushed it all over the course. The top six guys on the leaderboard all ranked in the top-10 in SG: Putting, which is excessive, even for a birdie-fest. But it stands to reason you'll have to make a bunch of birdies to contend when the winning score is almost 25-under. Two years ago, Rahm averaged just over 340 yards and was good statistically across the board. Eight of the top-15 in SG: Off-the-Tee were among the top-15 on the leaderboard. Length will be an advantage and, with the fairways so wide, the biggest hitters will be able to unload without much concern. The over/under on the winning score as determined by golfodds.com is 262.5 -- 21.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Nicolai Hojgaard - $10,700 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1600)
Finau is the highest-ranked player in the field at No. 24. But Hojgaard is next at No. 34 and might be playing better right now. He certainly is putting far better than Finau right now. Hojgaard was runner-up last month at the Farmers and tied for 33rd in his Mexico Open debut last year. Of course, you could pick both players, but Finau is at the exorbitant price of $12,000 pretty much has to win to pay off. His price is too high.
Thomas Detry - $10,100 (+2500)
Detry has played well so far this year, registering a top-20 at the Farmers and a top-5 at Pebble Beach. He's ranked top-20 on Tour in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Putting. He's among the longer drivers and more accurate drivers. Detry's approach play has been leaky, but it's going to be hard to find golfers without a weakness this week.
Taylor Pendrith - $9,600 (+2500)
Pendrith is among the longest drivers and best putters on Tour so far this season. That's what you're looking for this week. Now, it's a small sample size because the Canadian has played only three times so far in 2024. But he does have two top-10s. Pendrith really is strong statistically across the board. He tied for 30th here a year ago.
Erik van Rooyen - $9,500 (+3500)
The South African has some of the best SG: Off-the-Tee numbers in this field over his past 24 rounds (ranked eighth) and in SG: Approach (second). That's a formidable combo for this course. And van Rooyen's putting is above average for this field. He has three top-25s already on the season. He tied for 33rd here a year ago.
Tier 2 Values
Ryan Fox - $9,300 (+3500)
The New Zealander has done little on the PGA Tour so far this season, but he's got the skills to succeed this week: He's a very long driver and a very good putter. He has not been an accurate driver, but he'll get help on that from the wide Vidanta fairways.
Brandon Wu - $9,100 (+4500)
Wu was runner-up to Rahm two years ago and third behind Finau and Rahm last year. Not too shabby. He hasn't come close to matching that in the ensuing 12 months. But in a field like this it's hard to find a known quantity on paspalum greens like Wu.
Davis Thompson - $8,900 (+3500)
Thompson is still only 24 years ago. He's ranked top-25 on Tour in both SG: Approach and Putting. He's also a pretty long hitter, although highly inaccurate. Like Fox, he may get away with that this week. Thompson has two top-25s already in 2024, at the Amex and Phoenix. This will be his Vidanta debut.
Michael Kim - $8,200 (+5500)
Kim ranks very high in our model, inside the top 20. That's mostly attributed to his play on approach and around the green, though he's also a medium-long hitter and a better-than-average putter. Kim tied for 30th last year here in Mexico.
Tier 3 Values
Alejandro Tosti - $7,800 (+5500)
There aren't many guys in the $7,000s this week because DraftKings has chosen to drop more than 50 guys in the $5000s. Tosti may not be the most well known golfer, but going off at 50-1 on DraftKings should tell you he's got some game. He lands at No. 11 overall in our model. Tosti is a very big hitter off the tee and ranked 20th on Tour in SG: Putting. That might explain why he tied for 10th here a year ago.
Chesson Hadley - $7,700 (+8000)
Hadley is not a long hitter, but he's very accurate with his irons and putter. That should be enough to offset any distance concerns and get him to the weekend and maybe a lot more. Hadley has made only three starts so far in 2025, but one of them was a tie for 25th at uber-long Torrey Pines.
Jhonattan Vegas - $7,600 (+5500)
The soon-to-be 40-year-old Vegas missed about eight months last year with an elbow/shoulder injury and is now playing on a major medical extension. After missing his first three cuts in 2024, he tied for 22nd at Phoenix. Vegas remains a big hitter, but his game gets progressively worse closer to the hole: ranked 5th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 50th in Approach and 163rd in Putting. That last stat is a concern, but at a mid-$7000s price, we don't need a victory from Vegas to justify his price.
Sam Stevens - $7,100 (+5500)
Stevens ranks top-25 in our model in driving distance, SG: Off-the-Tee, proximity from 200-plus yards and SG: Around-the-Green -- that's for golfers in this field over their past 24 rounds. That's pretty stout at any price, much less near long-shot territory. Stevens opened his season with a top-25 at the Sony Open and just missed another last time out at Phoenix.
Long-Shot Values
Joseph Bramlett - $6,800 (+9000)
Bramlett is another guy who hits it far and putts pretty well. It's just that the area between the tee shot and the green that gives him trouble. Yet he tied for 25th at Torrey Pines in a field far stronger than this one. This will be Bramlett's third Mexico Open. He missed the cut in 2022 and tied for 10th last year.
Sami Valimaki - $6,700 (+10000)
Valimaki is the best golfer in Finland and graduated from the DP World Tour to the PGA Tour. He's one of the longest drivers on any tour -- and also pretty accurate. Valimaki is coming off made cuts at the Farmers and Phoenix, finishing in the 40s both times. But he did shoot a 64 in the final round at TPC Scottsdale.
Vince Whaley - $6,500 (+10000)
Whaley shot four rounds in the 60s at the Amex last month and got it to 18-under to tie for 34th. So he can deliver at a birdie-fest, though that's the only cut he's made in four starts so far in 2024. Still, Whaley is ranked 69th in SG: Approach, which in this field would qualify you for the Golf Hall of Fame.
Rafael Campos - $6,200 (+18000)
The 35-year-old from Puerto Rico is only 150-1 at the DK Sportsbook, so $6,200 seems like an underprice. Especially for a guy who tied for 20th at the Farmers just a few weeks back.
Deep Long-Shot Values
More than half the field will make the cut, and there are numerous players listed in the $5,000s. Here are a couple of consider.
Callum Tarren - $5,600 (+15000)
0-for-4 in cuts so far in 2024. He's due?
Omar Morales - $5,400 (+50000)
Morales is a 20-year-old junior at UCLA and of Mexican descent. He qualified for last year's U.S. Open and also played in last year's Mexico Open. He missed both cuts.
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