This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
MEXICO OPEN
Purse: $7.7M
Winner's Share: $1.386M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Villa Hidalgo, Mexico
Course: Vidanta Vallarta
Yardage: 7,456
Par: 71
2022 champion: Jon Rahm
Tournament Preview
As big as the tournament in Mayakoba was for Mexico and its golf fans, as big as it was having a prestigious WGC event in the country, they cannot compare to Mexico's national championship. The Mexico Open has been around since World War II and now, for the second straight year, it is a part of the PGA Tour.
The world's best golfers have been playing in the Mexico Open for decades, long before the PGA Tour established a footprint in the country at Mayakoba in 2007.
Lee Trevino heads the list of great golfers who have won it and is joined by Ben Crenshaw, Billy Casper, Stewart Cink, Jay Haas, Fred Funk, Bobby Locke, Roberto De Vicenzo and even golfers more familiar to many of us as broadcasters, Frank Nobilo and Bob Rosburg. More recently, the tournament was affiliated with the Korn Ferry Tour, PGA Tour Latinoamerica and even Europe's Challenge Tour. Beginning last year, it became a part of the biggest tour in the world, a huge turning point for golf in Mexico and a sense of pride for this nation.
This new chapter in history of the Mexico Open is being played out at the relatively new Vidanta Vallarta Golf Course, which is just seven years old and made its tournament debut last year. Fittingly, a Latin player emerged victorious in 2022, with Jon Rahm taking home the title Perhaps not so fittingly, this is another Greg Norman design, as was Mayakoba, which has ended its 15-year relationship with the PGA Tour and now plays host to a LIV Golf tournament.
There will be another PGA Tour event in Mexico as part of the recently announced fall schedule. The World Wide Technology Championship will be played in early November in Los Cabos and will effectively replace the Mayakoba event, which had the same title sponsor.
The Mexico Open kind of/sort of took the place of the WGC-Mexico, which was played from 2017 to 2020.
Rahm will be back to defend his title in this 144-man field, even though this is not a designated event. Most of the big names are idle in advance of next week's designated Wells Fargo Championship. (Rahm told the Pat MacAfee Show on Friday that he won't play the Wells Fargo, his one free designated skip of the season, and will take two weeks off in advance of the PGA Championship.) The Mexico Open didn't attract a great field last year, with only six of the top-50 in the world rankings in attendance. What it did have were Abraham Ancer and Carlos Ortiz, the two best players with connections to Mexico, but now both have gone to LIV. Tony Finau, who finished in a three-way share of runner-up with Kurt Kitayama and Brandon Wu, will be back, as will Wu.
Rahm and Finau are two of just three top-50s -- barely -- and eight top-100s in the field. The other top-50 is No. 50 Alex Noren. There's also Gary Woodland, Emiliano Grillo, Maverick McNealy, Wyndham Clark and Andrew Putnam representing the top-100, plus a few others of some renown in Luke List, Jimmy Walker, Matt Wallace and Francesco Molinari. The 17 Latin American players in the field include Nico Echavarria of Colombia, who won the Puerto Rico Open last month and is ranked 280th, and Augusto Nunez of Argentina, ranked 285th. The top Mexican players in the field are 42-year-old Jose de Jesus Rodríguez, a former PGA Tour member ranked No. 462, and Raul Pereda, No. 799. Arkansas senior Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira, who just competed in the Masters (MC) as the Latin America Amateur Championship winner, also is entered, along with a pair of sophomores, UCLA's Omar Morales and Oregon's Jose Cristobal Islas.
Vallarta is located on the western edge of Mexico, just off the Pacific, some 500-600 miles west of Mexico City. So expect it to be very windy, especially in the afternoon. Befitting a Norman track, the course is super long and wide open off the tee. Unlike with the WGC-Mexico at Chapultepec, this course is at sea level and there is no elevation to make it play shorter. So, nearly 7,500 yards and a par-71 is long, even by today's standards. And it is not a stock-par-71, if that's even possible. There are four par-5s, five par-3s and only nine par-4s. Two of the par-5s exceed 600 yards, including the massive 637-yard 12th. Three of the par-3s are around 200 or more. And four of the par-4s are in the neighborhood of 500 yards. The back-nine has three par-3s and three par-5s, odd indeed.
Last year, Vidanta ranked middle of the pack in difficulty, 24th out of 50 courses played on the PGA Tour. But there were some killer holes. In fact, four of them were among the top-50 hardest on Tour last year, which is an incredible feat. Three were long par-4s, the 496-yard eighth, the 475-yard 10th and the 505-yard 16th, plus the 226-yard 17th. So with 16 and 17 so hard, and the par-5, 548-yard 18th being among the softest, we could see some wild swings at the finish. The easiest hole was also a par-4, the drivable 297-yard seventh.
The Vidanta website says there's "wall-to-wall paspalum playing surfaces. The layout winds along the Ameca River, providing views of the Sierra Madres from every hole. Large landing areas off the tee give way to large undulating greens protected, in typical Norman fashion, by cavernous bunkers." There are more than 100 bunkers, water coming into play on 13 holes and plenty of those "sandy waste areas" (which are not hazards, you can ground your club!). Most of the golfers should be at least a little familiar with paspalum greens from their time at Mayakoba and other courses in the general region. As a reminder, paspalum tends to run slower, about 11ish on the Stimpmeter.
As for the weather, the golfers should enjoy beautiful conditions all week, with high temperatures in the 80s, zero chance of rain and wind forecast to be not too bad, in the low double digits mph all four days.
Mexico Open historical factoid: The first winner of the first edition of tournament in 1944 was Al Espinosa, who in fact won the first four Mexico Opens. You may not know the name, but Espinosa was and accomplished golfer, winning nine times on the PGA Tour in the 1920s and '30s and being named to three Ryder Cup teams. He played in 30 majors and finished in the top-25 20 times. He was runner-up twice in majors, at the 1928 PGA and also in the 1929 U.S. Open at Winged Foot, where he lost a 36-hole playoff to Bobby Jones -- by 23 shots!
Key Stats to Winning at Vidanta
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approaches from 200+ yards
• Strokes Gained: Putting
Past Champions
2022 - Jon Rahm
Champion's Profile
Rahm won last year at 17-under, and the big-time birdie-fest didn't quit materialize. He led the field in driving distance with an average of just over 340 yards. Rahm also ranked 15th in fairways hit, seventh in greens in regulation, third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 18th in SG: Putting. Rahm ranked second in SG: Off-the-Tee, and eight of the top-15 in the category were among the top-15 on the leaderboard. Finau was one of three runners-up, just a shot back. He was almost 30 yards behind Rahm in driving distance but still ranked 17t in SG: OTT. Finau also led the field in GIR, was second in SG; Approach, fifth in SG: Around-the-Green and first in SG: Tee-to-Green -- but also a Finau-like 60th in SG: Putting. Length will be an advantage and, despite Finau coming close despite poor putting, look for guys who can make birdies. Two-under was the cut line. The over/under on the winning score as determined by golfodds.com is 266.5 -- 17.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Jon Rahm - $12,000 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +260)
Rahm is the defending champion. He's the first $12,000 golfer we've seen in about two years. His odds opened at +275 and were dropping. His odds are probably too short to make it worth your while. His big DFS price is still worth it. We don't normally talk one-and-done pools here, but when someone is such an overwhelming favorite, it's often a good play.
Tony Finau - $10,700 (+800)
Finau came within a shot of Rahm last year with an absolutely terrible week on the greens. He's been putting much better, now ranked 44th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting. And he leads the Tour in SG: Approach. There is a huge dropoff in the field after Rahm and Finau.
Wyndham Clark - $9,700 (+1600)
Clark is coming off a good week partnering with Beau Hossler at the Zurich Classic. He's ranked 11th on Tour in driving distance. He's in the top-80 in every strokes-gained category. He's made the cut in all nine of his starts in 2023, including recent top-10s at the Valspar and Puntacana.
Tier 2 Values
Patrick Rodgers - $9,300 (+2800)
Rodgers came close to his first PGA Tour win at the Valero earlier this month, ending in a tie for fifth, then tied for 19th at the RBC Heritage. This course is right up the alley of this big hitter, who tied for 10th here a year ago.
Byeong Hun An - $9,100 (+3500)
The big-hitting An is making the most of his second chance on the PGA Tour. He's missed only three cuts all season and recently tied for sixth at the Valero before playing in the Zurich Classic. Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green is not one of our key stats, but when you lead the Tour in that category like An does, that's notable.
Ben Martin - $8,600 (+5000)
Martin is the first guy listed who doesn't classify as a big hitter. Yet he checks in at No. 12 in our model. He has made seven straight cuts (not including the Zurich), with three of them resulting in top-10s. Martin is ranked 15th on Tour in SG: Approach.
Stephan Jaeger - $8,200 (+3500)
Jaeger averages more than 300 yards off the tee and is ranked top-50 in approaches from 200-plus yards. He lands at No. 20 in our model, close to his tie for 15th here last year.
S.H. Kim - $8,200 (+5500)
Kim is pretty long hitter and a very good putter. He's made seven of his past eight cuts (non-Zurich) and was 15th at the Valero last time out. Kim is ranked in the top-50 in SG: Off-the-Tee.
Tier 3 Values
Will Gordon - $7,900 (+5000)
Gordon slots at No. 14 in our model. He's ranked top-50 on Tour in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach. Gordon has made 12 of 16 cuts. He has just one top-10 all season -- that also came in Mexico, a tie for third at Mayakoba in the fall. That course is much shorter than Vidanta but does feature paspalum greens.
Lee Hodges - $7,900 (+6000)
Hodges is a very attractive ninth overall in our model. He's not super long, but not short either, at just under 300 yards off the tee. He had his best finish of the season earlier this month when he tied for sixth at the Valero.
Joseph Bramlett - $7,800 (+5500)
Bramlett is ranked top-25 on Tour in both driving distance and approaches from 200-plus yards, plus top-50 in SG: Approach. He's been slumping a bit of late, but back in January he tied for 13th at a long Torrey Pines course. Bramlett ranked 17th in our model.
Augusto Nunez - $7,000 (+15000)
The 30-year-old Argentine has made six of his past seven cuts, with his two best finishes at the tournaments in the Caribbean -- T15 at Puerto Rico, T26 at the Dominican Republic. Nunez is a huge hitter, ranked top-25 on Tour in driving distance and ninth in approaches from 200-plus yards. Other than putting, he rates well in every key stat and surprisingly comes in at 13th in our model.
Long-Shot Values
Chris Stroud - $6,700 (+30000)
Stroud made two cuts recently -- at the two Caribbean tournaments: a tie for 15th at Puerto Rico and a tie for 38th at the Dominican Republic. He's not a long hitter off the tee, and that's a concern, but he's ranked third on Tour in approaches from 175-200 yards and 18th overall in SG: Approach.
Alejandro Tosti - $6,500 (+15000)
The 26-year-old Argentine and University of Florida alum has been tearing up the Korn Ferry Tour with two top-10s and two top-25s in his past four starts. Despite this very weak field, it's still a big jump up in class for Tosti. He's played one PGA tour event this season, tying for 39th at the Sanderson Farms. Notice how his odds are so much shorter than this next guy, also priced at $6500.
Kevin Roy - $6,500 (+30000)
We've been wanting to pick Roy all year, because his approach numbers are so good. This might be the first time we've actually pulled the trigger. There's a lot to like -- along with a lot not to like. The 33-year-old New York native is ranked 21st on Tour in SG: Approach and an elite third from 200-plus yards.
Kyle Westmoreland - $6,300 (+35000)
All the way down here, Westmoreland still cracks the top 50 in our model. He's an absolute beast with driver in hand, ranking 12th in distance off the tee at more than 310 yards, with the fourth-fastest club head speed on Tour, at nearly 125 mph. Westmoreland has made three of his past six cuts (non-Zurich), including at the difficult Bay Hill course.
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