DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: The American Express Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

THE AMERICAN EXPRESS

Purse: $8.8M
Winner's Share: $1.53M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: La Quinta, Calif.
Courses: Stadium Course at PGA West, plus the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta
Yardage: 7,187 (Stadium)
Par: 72
2024 champion: Nick Dunlap

Tournament Preview

The PGA Tour likes to start its season with a bang, as can be expected. There are three signature events in the first seven tournaments, including stops at famed Pebble Beach and Riviera. There's another big-boy golf course in Torrey Pines, and of course Phoenix is always a must-see wild ride.

And then there's the Amex.

It's fair to say that if there's one weak link in the first month and a half of the season, it's La Quinta. And things used to be almost the polar opposite, when Bob Hope's five-day, 90-hole celebrity-splashed extravaganza was one of the must-watch tournaments of the entire year.

But last month at Christmastime, the Amex -- which apparently had been very good in Santa's eyes -- had a couple of wonderful gifts left under its tree: World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and No. 2 Xander Schauffele were coming to town.

Later that night, at Christmas dinner, Scheffler sliced up his hand, requiring surgery and knocking him out of the tournament. But the Amex at least still had Schauffele. Until Monday afternoon. That's when he also withdrew, though no cutlery was evidently involved.

This is why the Amex can't have nice things.

Now, the 156-man field is headed by world No. 7 Wyndham Clark, at least numerically. Realistically, the top draws are Justin Thomas, top-priced in DFS and the betting favorite; the always bubbly Patrick Cantlay; Sam Burns; Tony Finau; Jason Day; Tom Kim; and Sungjae Im. Oh, and the defending champion Nick Dunlap, who made the Amex stand out last year by winning the tournament as an amateur still attending the University of Alabama. Tournament organizers could use such a boost again.

In all, eight top-25s and 20 top-50s are on hand. At the other end of the spectrum, 28 of the 30 Korn Ferry grads, including top guy Matt McCarty, will play. Four of the 10 DP World Tour transfers are here as well: Rikuya Hoshino, Matteo Manassero, Antoine Rozner and Jesper Svensson, who made a splashy Tour debut last week with a top-10 at The Sony Open in Hawaii. Three veteran golfers in Kevin Kisner, Ryan Palmer and Brandt Snedeker are using their career earnings exemption this season. And it's nice to see all six Q School grads in the field after almost completely getting shut out at Waialae, though they are not familiar names.

The Amexes of the schedule are supposed to be, in large part, paths for the lesser guys to qualify for the signature events, with the next one coming at Pebble Beach in two weeks. It worked that way for Dunlap a year ago.

For decades, this tournament was one of the, um, signature stops on the PGA Tour calendar, largely because of Hope, the A-list entertainer who pulled in a star-studded lineup of show business types to frolic in the warm California desert in the dead of winter, which in turn brought out the biggest players in golf. Fans back east in the shivering cold ate it up -- and back then it was 90 holes across five rounds. Eventually, as Hope and the show business types aged, the tournament lost its luster, and that was accelerated when Hope passed away in 2003 at age 100. His name was removed from the title eight years later. But people of a certain age still refer to this event as "the Hope." 

The tournament drifted from sponsor to sponsor after Hope's passing: Chrysler, Humana, CareerBuilder, Workday and even a few years with no title sponsor. American Express came on board five years ago and, while the tournament is far from its heyday, things are far better than they were.

The two PGA West tracks –- the Stadium Course and the Nicklaus Tournament Course (par-72, 7,147 yards) –- were introduced in 2016 to go along with venerable La Quinta (par-72, 7,060). All of them are pushovers for today's golfers, though the Stadium is the toughest. The golfers will rotate on the three courses before a rare 54-hole cut for 65 and ties, and then the 1986 Pete Dye-designed Stadium track will go it solo on Sunday.

We'll focus on the Stadium here, since it will be used for two rounds, though some things apply to all three courses. All are short, so driver isn't always needed. With water on seven Stadium holes and more than 90 bunkers, there is at least some trouble lurking. And the bermudagrass greens are some of the smallest the golfers will see all year, averaging only 5,000 square feet. But they are simple and pretty slow. This is annually one of the biggest birdie-fests. last year, Dunlap's 29-under broke Jon Rahm's one-year scoring record of 27-under.

Interestingly, Bermuda is the grass of choice on both PGA West courses, but poa is on La Quinta. That can't be easy for the golfers to switch mid-tournament. La Quinta's greens are even smaller than the Stadium track's, averaging about 4,800 square feet. Nicklaus is the biggest at 7,000 square feet.

Thirteen of the past 15 winners played at least one of the two Hawaii stops before coming here, excluding Dunlap, who got in on a sponsor invite. Since the tournament's inception in 1960, there have been only seven non-American winners.

As for the weather, while wildfires rage on in Los Angeles, conditions some 130 miles to the east should be prime for another shootout. Highs will be in the low 70s all week, with zero chance of rain and little wind. In other words, giddyap! 

REMINDER: The Amex comes with a 54-hole cut after three days of pro-am play, so this might be a good week to consider a little added risk. If you don't get 6-for-6, you'd lose only 18 holes, and that might not kill your lineup in cash games. The top 65 players and ties will play on Sunday at the Stadium track.

Key Stats to Winning at the Stadium Course

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Ball Striking
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
• Birdie-or-Better Percentage/Par-5 Scoring
• Par-5 Efficiency, 550-600 yards 

Past Champions

2014 - Nick Dunlap
2023 - Jon Rahm
2022 - Hudson Swafford
2021 - Si Woo Kim
2020 - Andrew Landry
2019 - Adam Long
2018 - Jon Rahm
2017 - Hudson Swafford
2016 - Jason Dufner
2015 - Bill Haas 

Champion's Profile

There's little mystery this week. Getting on the green in short order will provide plenty of birdie of opportunities on some of the smallest and easiest greens the golfers will see all year. Last year, Dunlap was long and inaccurate off the tee but that mattered little. He ranked fourth in SG: Approach, 17th in SG: Tee-to-Green and ninth in SG: Putting. Two years ago, Rahm somehow got it to 27-under with a terrible putting week -- he ranked 61st in the field. It was not a year for putters. But last year proved that putting is a good path to success here. As mentioned, 13 of the past 15 winners played at least one of the two Hawaii stops before coming here. The over/under on the winning score at golfodds.com is 259.5, which is a big number -- 28.5 under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$9,000-$9,900

Sam Burns - $9,800 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1600)
With Schauffele withdrawing after prices were posted, only two $10,000+ golfers remain -- Thomas and Im. We're bypassing them in favor of Burns, also known as "Bermuda Burns," who oftentimes feasts on those putting surfaces. You need someone to at least show that they've been able to score very low, either here or somewhere else. Burns fits the bill, hitting 25-under-par last year (T6) and 22-under the year before (T11). He was also T6 in 2020. He already is off to a fast start with a top-10 at the Sentry.

Max Greyserman - $9,200 (+3000)
Greyserman came on strong in the second half last year to show can hang with the top guys. He had three runners-up, including at the ZOZO. And then he finished fourth in the World Wide Technology in Mexico, reaching 22-under. Greyserman finished second on Tour last season in SG: Putting and seventh in birdie average.

$8,000-$8,900

Davis Thompson - $8,900 (+3500)
Thompson let us down last week, missing the cut at the Sony. That always makes it hard to jump back on board the following week, but we think it's the right play. He's still one of the top guys in the field, with a sub-$9,000 price and a good history here. Thompson was runner-up two years ago and T21 last year. He is not an elite putter, though he finished top-35 on Tour last year in both birdie average and par-5 scoring.

Harry Hall - $8,800 (+4000)
Hall has opened the season with a pair of top-10s, after finishing last season with three straight top-15s. He is excellent around the greens, ranking sixth on Tour last season. He was also second in birdie average and sixth in par-5 scoring. That shows he can go low, which he did in winning the ISCO last year.

J.J. Spaun - $8,600 (+5500)
Last summer, amid a brutal first half 2024 season, Spaun fell out of the top-160 in the world rankings. He began to turn it around with a top-10 at the 3M Open, then two more at the Wyndham and the ZOZO. And now, with last week's T3 -- a result that could've been so much more -- he's up to No. 77. Spaun ended last season as a top-20 guy in SG: Approach, and that will play on any course.

Brian Harman - $8,200 (+6000)
Harman didn't have a great start to this season -- far back at the Sentry, an okay T21 at the Sony. And last year was not great. But over the past decade, Harman has a pair of top-3s at the Amex, plus another top-10, plus three more top-25s. So, we'll bank on extended course history over recent form. We shall see.

$7,000-$7,900

Adam Hadwin - $7,700 (+7000)
The Canadian snowbird himself, Hadwin thrives in the California desert. Tying for sixth last year, it was his sixth Amex top-10 in the past decade. He's also had two top-25s. Some guys are just a match for some courses, and in Hadwin's case he appears to be a match for three courses.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout - $7,600 (+7500)
Bezuidenhout has played the Amex three times and has finished T40, then T11, then runner-up to Dunlap last year. That's what's known in the golf world as improvement (actually, it's known as improvement everywhere). Shooting 28-under and not winning has to be brutal. The South African was a top-60 player last season in SG: Approach, Around-the-Green and Putting, and not many guys had that wide of a skill set.

Chris Kirk - $7,000 (+10000)
This price jumped out at us. A year ago, Kirk won The Sentry. And now he's almost in the $6,000s? And 100-1? Sure, he did not play all that well after The Sentry, but he missed only five cuts -- and three came in a row in midseason. Kirk has shown some juice at the Amex, tying for third just two years ago and for 16th four years ago. At this low number, priced similarly to many unfavorable options, he's worth a flyer.

$6,000-$6,900

Matti Schmid - $6,900 (+15000)
The 27-year-old German ended his first season on Tour much better than he started, stringing together a T16-5-T3 stretch in the fall season. His two best clubs were driver and putter, which is not a bad combination to have. That made him notably strong on the par-5s, ranking top-25 in par-5 birdie or better. That could explain why Schmid tied for sixth in his Amex debut two years ago.

Zach Johnson - $6,700 (+17000)
Johnson is about 13 months from the Champions Tour, and getting old never looked so good. He played last year on a career money exemption and now this year will have to make due with past champion status. So starts may not come so freely, though he did get in the Sony and even tied for 21st. He's in the Amex, where he's made six of his past seven cuts, with top-25s two of the past three years. Short, easier tracks are where Johnson will have to thrive, and he's done so recently.

David Lipsky - $6,500 (+30000)
Exciting Lipsky news: As I was looking up his odds, everything started flashing and he moved from 350-1 to 300-1. So he's on the rise! Seriously, that's hardly a big vote of confidence, but there's not a lot to like down here in the low $6,000s. Lipsky provides a decent floor to make the 54-hole cut. He had a good week on approach in tying for 45th last week at the Sony, and he ranked top-50 on Tour last season. Lipsky tied for 14th at the Amex three years ago.

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