This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
GENESIS SCOTTISH OPEN
Purse: $8M
Winner's Share: 1.440M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: North Berwick, Scotland
Course: The Renaissance Club
Yardage: 7,237
Par: 70
2021: Min Woo Lee
Tournament Preview
When the PGA Tour and DP World Tour announced that the Scottish Open would be co-sponsored beginning this year, further enhancing their relationship, they repeatedly used the term "strategic alliance." The press release even capitalized the two words. Little did they know less a year later how strategic they would need to be and how their alliance would grow even more profound. As the threat of LIV Golf grows, the two tours have tightened their bond, announcing last week that the top-10 golfers in the season-long 2023 DP World Tour points race would receive PGA Tour cards for the following season. It was a bold and maybe even surprise announcement that the two tours fortified themselves with each other, at least from the perspective of the DP World Tour, which was reportedly being targeted by LIV for a buyout.
For better or worse, LIV hangs over this tournament, which begins what we could call a two-week Scotland Swing leading up to the historic 150th Open Championship next week at St. Andrews. LIV golfers from both tours had been barred from the Scottish Open, something they did not take quietly or without litigation. In fact, a British court issued a stay on Monday allowing Ian Poulter and three other LIV golfers, Branden Grace and Justin Harding of South Africa and Adrian Otaegui of Spain, into the field, which now stands at 160. (All the LIV golfers who qualified will be allowed to play in the Open Championship.)
We will hear more about LIV all week, and next week, and beyond.
But for now let's turn our attention to actual golf. The Scottish Open field is loaded with 14 of the top-15 in the world golf rankings led by the winners of the past four majors: defending British Open champion Collin Morikawa, Masters winner Scottie Scheffler, PGA Championship victory Justin Thomas and newly minted U.S. Open champ Matt Fitzpatrick. Rory McIlroy is the only top guy missing. Only four players inside the top 25 of the OWGR and are eligible to play won't be here. Besides McIlroy, Tony Finau, Shane Lowry and Daniel Berger are skipping this final Open tune-up. Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen and Abraham Ancer are top-25 LIVers not allowed in.
Before the LIV trio was added, there were 75 PGA Tour pros and 75 DP World Tour pros in a 156-man field, along with three from the Korean Tour -- Seoul-based Genesis is the title sponsor -- and three sponsor's invites. Meanwhile, to further illustrate the burgeoning partnership between the two tours, the alternate-field Barbasol Championship also being played this week at Keene Trace in Kentucky has 50 spots reserved for DP World Tour players.
PGA Tour pros have been playing the Scottish Open with more regularity in recent years to get acclimated for the Open Championship. Former winners here include Phil Mickelson (2013) and Rickie Fowler (2015). Neither golfer, however, won at the Renaissance Club. This will be the fourth year that one of the biggest events on the European golf calendar will be played at this club that sits along the Firth of Forth right next to Muirfield on Scotland's "Golf Coast" 20 miles east of Edinburgh. The North Sea lurks. The Tom Doak design has been around only since 2008, which means it is not a historic links course and it has little in common with St. Andrews other than their location. In fact, the Renaissance Club was carved out of an old pine forest. But it does look and play very, um, "linksy."
The fairways are pretty wide, like on true links courses, and there also are deep bunkers. Some holes run along the coast. And there's gorse and thick fescue, two words all of us U.S.-based golf fans love to hear around this time of year. The large greens are fescue-based. But there are still some trees, creating an odd visual for links golf. Early indications are this could turn into a full-fledged birdie-best. As always, weather will dictate that.
Bernd Wiesberger won the first go-round at Renaissance in 2019 at 22-under. In far tougher, cooler conditions a year later, Aaron Rai won at 11-under. Last year, Min Woo Lee won at 18-under in a three-way playoff with Matt Fitzpatrick and Thomas Detry. So it appears 2020 was a bit of an outlier because of the weather.
The Scottish Open is part of the Rolex Series. the top tier of tournaments on the DP World Tour. It used to be eight events but now only four along with the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, the BMW PGA Championship and the season-ending DP World Tour Championship in Dubai. They have elevated purses and the fact that the Scottish Open will now be sponsored by Genesis makes it an even bigger deal.
Weather-wise, conditions should be pretty consistent all week, with highs right around 70 all four days, partly cloudy skies and little chance of rain but with the potential for the wind to be a big factor, blowing in the mid-teens mph every day, with the biggest gusts forecast on Sunday.
Fun Scottish Open factoid: None other than David Feherty won the third edition of the Scottish Open in 1986, beating Ian Baker-Finch and Christy O'Conner Jr. in a playoff at Haggs Castle. The Scottish Open may sound like it's 100 years old, but it was first played in 1972 and '73, then took a 12-year hiatus before Northern Ireland's Feherty won it. The tournament has been played every year since, with the winners including Ian Woosnam, Thomas Bjorn, Lee Westwood, Colin Montgomerie, Ernie Els, Retief Goosen, Tom Lehman, Justin Rose and, as mentioned above, Phil Mickelson and Rickie Fowler.
Key Stats to Winning at The Renaissance Club
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Birdie-or-Better Percentage/Birdie Average/Bogey Avoidance
• Par-5 Scoring
Past Champions
2021 - Min Woo Lee (Renaissance Club)
2020 - Aaron Rai (Renaissance Club)
2019 - Bernd Wiesberger (Renaissance Club)
2018 - Brandon Stone
2017 - Rafa Cabrera Bello
2016 - Alex Noren
2015 - Rickie Fowler
2014 - Justin Rose
2013 - Phil Mickelson
2012 - Jeev Milkha Singh
Champion's Profile
We have three years of data to go by but what we don't have is how things will play out with an elite field. Things will be far different this year, with perhaps the strongest field in the history of a European/DP World Tour. The top of the DK board will be dominated by American golfers, though of course links-style golf is not their forte. It presents a challenge. That said ...
When Wiesberger won at 22-under in 2019, he hit more than 80 percent of his greens in regulation -- though that ranked only 23rd in the field, which will tell you a lot about the Renaissance Club and its large greens. He also was sixth in putts per GIR, and the man he beat in a playoff, Benjamin Hebert, was fifth. Driving distance and accuracy off the tee mattered little, and neither golfer scrambled well. Wiesberger took big advantage of four par-5s, but this time around there are only three. Still, it's something to watch for as 13-under of his 22-under total came on the par-5s. In all, he had a whopping 30 birdies. In harder 2020 conditions, Rai was fourth in GIR at nearly 78 percent. He was only 29th in putting but fourth in scrambling. Playoff loser Tommy Fleetwood was a little behind in GIR percentage but putted far better than Rai. Last year, Lee, Matt Fitzpatrick and Thomas Detry all tied at 18-under after 72 holes. Like in 2019, they gobbled up the four par-5s, with Lee going 11-under and Fitzpatrick and Detry at 9-under. If looking for a connection, both Wiesberger and Rai finished second the week before at the Irish Open, while Lee tied for 17th -- but it's important to note they were all played at different courses. So maybe it's more current form than anything else. The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com is 266.5, which is 17.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Scottie Scheffler - $11,200 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1200)
Scheffler played this tournament last year and tied for 12th. He has played in one Open Championship. It was last year and he tied for eighth at Royal St. George's. That was before he went on his torrid victory stretch, so it shows that this week's course should not present much of an issue for the world's No. 1 golfer. To bet on Scottie, sign up and use the DraftKings promo code for a free bonus.
Jon Rahm - $11,000 (+1200)
It took Rahm some time to acclimate to links golf. In his first three Open Championships, he couldn't crack the top-40. But he was 11th in 2019 and, after the Open was canceled in 2020 because of the pandemic, Rahm tied for third last year. He also was seventh last year at this tournament. He's a two-time winner of the Irish Open but didn't play in it last week.
Justin Thomas - $10,600 (+1400)
Thomas played here in 2019 and 2021 and finished in the top-10 both times. And we really don't need to go into much detail about how he's played throughout 2022, piling up top-10 after top-10 before finally closing the deal at the PGA Championship.
Matt Fitzpatrick - $10,100 (+1800)
We're not fond of picking the top four guys on the DK board or of picking a guy in his first start after a life-altering golf moment, which Fitzpatrick had in winning the U.S. Open. But none of the big names is more familiar with links golf than the Englishman. As mentioned above, he made it to a playoff here last year before falling to Min Woo Lee.
Tier 2 Values
Xander Schauffele - $9,900 (+1800)
Like Fitzpatrick, Schauffele is coming off a win last time out. But of course the Travelers is nothing like a major. The Open Championship has been Schauffele's worst major, but it's all relative: He was second in 2018, 20th in 2017 and 26th last year. He played last year's Scottish Open and tied for 10th.
Cameron Smith - $9,100 (+2500)
Smith has played the Scottish once before, but not at the Renaissance Club. We like him here based on his short-game skill, as things could get dicey if the wind really blows and greens are missed with greater frequency. Smith has been decent but not great at the Open Championship, but he's a better golfer now than he's ever been before.
Jordan Spieth - $8,900 (+3000)
This is a favorable price for Spieth, who is not in the $10Ks and even the $9Ks but in the $8000s. It's a price at which we can back him. He hasn't played at Renaissance Club before, but he's clearly showed an affinity for links golf throughout his career.
Tommy Fleetwood - $8,400 (+4500)
Fleetwood plays his best golf in Europe. Sure, this isn't a traditional weaker-field Euro event, but he's still our favorite play in the lower $8,000s. The Englishman was runner-up here in 2020, the year the conditions were more difficult, and it's understandable he was at his best in dicier weather. He was still 26th last year. Fleetwood is also one of the better scramblers around, ranked ninth on the PGA tour in sG: Around-the-Green.
Tier 3 Values
Tyrrell Hatton - $7,800 (+5500)
Hatton is one of the harder guys to handicap -- and to trust. He can be great or he can be, um, not great. He has a temper. But he also was top-15 at THE PLAYERS and the PGA Championship. But then he missed the cut last week at the Irish Open. Back and forth we go with Hatton. The upside is significant -- certainly at this price -- and Hatton had top-20s here two of the past three years.
Lucas Herbert - $7,600 (+6500)
Herbert has played this tournament all three years it's been at the Renaissance Club. He's finished fourth each of the past two years, so he can play this track and good conditions and bad. The Aussie recently was 13th at the PGA Championship and ninth last week at the Irish Open to move back into the top-50 in the world rankings.
Min Woo Lee - $7,300 (+9000)
We don't expect the Australian to successfully defend his title, not in this loaded field. But he showed he can play this course -- and go low -- and that's a lot more to go off of than many of the guys in this price range. Lee has not been great on the PGA Tour this season, though he's done his best in the best fields, recording a T14 at the Masters and a T27 at the U.S. Open.
Jordan Smith - $7,300 (+13000)
Smith has been tearing up the DP World Tour, with five top-10s and only one missed cut all year. He's had six consecutive top-25s, including last week at the Irish Open. It will be interesting to see whether he can stay on this heater while moving up in class.
Long-Shot Values
Richie Ramsay - $7,000 (+35000)
The 39-year-old Scotsman is on a good run entering the Scottish Open. He's made five straight DP World Tours cuts (along with a WD), including a tie for third at the British Masters. Ramsay was 37th last week at the Irish Open. He made the Scottish cut in 2019 and 2021, tying for 15th last year.
David Lipsky - $6,800 (+30000)
The native California is quite familiar with golf in Europe. Before he made his way onto the PGA Tour, he won twice on the DP World Tour. Lipsky has proved pretty average in his first year with a Tour card in the States, which makes him better than an average in this field. Most of his high finishes have come in the weaker PGA Tour fields -- he has six top-25s -- but we expect him to make this cut here and perhaps a bit more.
Wil Besseling - $6,600 (+50000)
The 36-year-old Dutchman got a spot in the field when LIVer Patrick Reed was removed on Monday morning. He's played pretty well in 2022 to creep back inside the top-250 in the world. Besseling has made four straight cuts and seven of 10, highlighted by a runner-up at the Porsche European Open and a made cut at the U.S. Open, which was his first career major. He has not played the Scottish at the Renaissance Club.
Guido Migliozzi - $6,300 (+40000)
The Italian has not had a good year, falling from inside the top 100 in the world to outside the top-150. But he has shown flashes in recent weeks, tying for 14th at the U.S. Open and for 10th at the Dutch Open in late May. Migliozzi has played all three Scottish Opens at the Renaissance Club, making the cut in 2019 and 2021.
