DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Phoenix Open

The first thing that jumps out for us this week is the field. It's a tidy 132, 24 fewer golfers/scrubs than last week at Torrey Pines that likely will make this tournament a lot more chalk. There are some surprising names at or near the bottom of the DraftKings values, including former world No. 1 Luke Donald, 2007 Phoenix champion Aaron Baddeley and rising star Harold Varner III. So lineup construction will be different from past weeks, not only because of the bottom but the top. All told, 12 of the top 30 in the world are on hand, including No. 5 and defending champion Hideki Matsuyama, No. 6 Jordan Spieth and No. 9 Justin Thomas.

After largely staying away from the top guys the last couple weeks, we'll alter that approach here. Whom to play? Historically, what happens off the tee and on the green have not impacted scoring as much as what happens in between. We'll delve deeper into that in the Champion's Profile below.

The course underwent some major modifications two years ago, with changes to the greens and bunkers and 114 yards tacked on. TPC Scottsdale stiffened slightly from a middle-of-the-road track to 20th hardest of the 50 on Tour last season, 22nd of 52 in 2015. Aside from Phil Mickelson's outlier 28-under in 2013, the winning score has been in the low to mid-teens. The three toughest holes on the course from last year are all back-nine par-4s: in order, the 490-yard 14th, the 442-yard 18th and the 472-yard 11th. It all sets up for a rollicking finish. In between the tough 14th and 18th, there's the electrifying 16th and the risk/reward 17th. That's a drivable, 332-yard par-4 that played significantly under par last year at 3.772, albeit with zero eagles.  

Weather-wise, conditions should be fairly benign, warm with light wind. It'll be a bit chilly in the early morning, but that will be for both sides of the draw.
 
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Scottsdale 
 
• Ball striking 
• Greens in regulation 
• Proximity to the hole 
• Scrambling 
 
Past Champions 
 
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama 
2015 - Brooks Koepka 
2014 - Kevin Stadler 
2013 - Phil Mickelson 
2012 - Kyle Stanley 
2011 - Mark Wilson 
2010 - Hunter Mahan
2009 - Kenny Perry
2008 - J.B. Holmes
2007 - Aaron Baddeley

Champion's Profile 
 
A look back at the last two years since the course modifications, and even before, shows a strong correlation between greens in regulation and victory. In fact, every winner since 2010 has been top-10 in GIR, and four of the seven champions led the field. That's our critical focus this week. We've included ball striking in our key stats because driving does matter here and even though it overlaps with GIR (ball striking is total driving plus GIR). Among the last seven winners, only Phil Mickelson in his record-setting 2013 win was top-10 in putting average (putts per GIR). Some very ordinary putters have done well here in recent years, such as Bubba Watson (runner-up in 2014-15) and Kevin Stadler (2014 winner playing his home course). Last year, Hideki Matsuyama (first in GIR) beat Rickie Fowler (T6 GIR) in an epic playoff. Neither was in the top-20 in SGP. Brooks Koepka in 2015 was T4 GIR, 19th SGP. Watson was only 25th in GIR each of his two-runner-up years, so Bubba clearly has been an exception. Yes, long hitters have a propensity to break any model.
 
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap) 

Tier 1 Values 
 
Jordan Spieth - $12,000 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 8-1) 

Spieth is No. 1 on Tour in GIR and, for all his trouble of the tee, is 13th in total driving. And even though putting is not paramount, it surely doesn't hurt to be among the best in the world at it. Spieth was T7 two years ago in his lone visit to Scottsdale. He's a very pricey play, and we might favor the next guy just a bit more.

Hideki Matsuyama - $11,700 (10-1)
 
The defending champion also has a T2 and T4 on his resume in three starts here. Hard to argue with that track record. After Matsuyama, the third- and fourth-priced golfers are Justin Thomas at $11,500 and Jon Rahm all the way down at $9,500. We will bypass both this week. We'd like to see how Thomas performs on a tougher track than his two Hawaii wins came on. Rahm is the new flavor of the month. Even though this is a de facto home game for the Arizona State alum, playing just days after a life-altering first career win is a lot to ask. Really hard to refocus. Just look at Hudson Swafford two weeks ago.

Rickie Fowler - $9,500 (30-1) 

We have not been big backers of Fowler, and he has not been all that great since blowing the lead last year and losing to Matsuyama. But he's been runner-up here twice, and it's hard to believe this will be his ninth appearance in this tournament. More than relying on numbers, we are giving a lukewarm backing to Fowler because he remembers his crushing loss last year, and how it left tears in his eyes. His 30-1 odds clearly show the oddsmakers don't share our sentimentality.

Brooks Koepka - $9,100 (25-1) 

Before Jon Rahm, there was Brooks Koepka, another big, strapping golfer destined for greatness. Keep in mind, Rahm fans, that Koepka has not won since his maiden victory here in 2015. Coming back as defending champ can be daunting, and Koepka tied for 41st last year. He returns now as a regular Joe, albeit one well-suited for this track.
 
Tier 2 Values 
 
Ryan Moore - $8,600 (25-1) 

The Vegas denizen is no stranger to desert golf, and his history here is evidence. Moore has made eight straight cuts, with six top-20s and three top-10s. There are a lot of guys priced in the $8000s, and it was the toughest tier to formulate, with the likes of J.B. Holmes, Harris English and Phil Mickelson (playing third straight week) all meriting strong consideration. But here's the rest of our Tier 2: 

Bubba Watson - $8,300 (25-1) 

Watson certainly has been trending downward for almost a year now. But this course has proven near-perfect for him, with five straight top-15 cashes. If he doesn't do well this week, it will be very telling how the rest of the season can go for Watson. 

Brendan Steele - $8,200 (30-1) 

We've been riding Steele hard, and we'll continue to until he throws us off. Steele has finished T20-T6-T6 his last three starts. He's made six straight Phoenix cuts with four of them top-20s. He's sixth on Tour in ball striking (26th in total driving, sixth in GIR). He's 17th in proximity to the hole from the fairway. 

Zach Johnson - $8,100 (40-1) 

Like Watson, Johnson seemingly has turned a corner heading in the wrong direction. But this course suits him. After a four-year hiatus, Johnson returned in 2015 to tie for 10th before tying for 14th last year. He hasn't played much this year but tied for sixth at the Sony.
 
Tier 3 Values 
 
Russell Knox - $7,500 (30-1) 

It's remarkable that this guy is so cheap every week (and the oddsmakers agree with us on this one). He's ranked 18th in the world! Knox is 10th in ball striking. He's finished top-25 in all five events he's played this season, with three top-10s. Knox played here once before, tying for 15th two years ago. One of these days, Knox will have a clunker, but until then we'll keep playing him. 

Billy Horschel - $7,500 (80-1)

Horschel has not been great recently, though he does have a decent history at TPC Scottsdale: T24-T30-MC-T11 the last four years. More important, he's third on Tour in ball striking and third in total driving, while 15th in GIR. 

Keegan Bradley - $7,400 (50-1) 

Maybe marriage agrees with Bradley. The newlywed has been playing his best golf in years, tying for fourth last week at difficult Torrey Pines and 25th the week before at the CareerBuilder, completely different courses from week to week. Let's also throw in four top-25s here the past five years, both before and after the anchored-putting ban. Bradley is ninth on Tour in ball striking, 18th in GIR. 

William McGirt - $7,400 (100-1) 

McGirt has teed it up here five times with no finish worse than T32. He has good numbers across the board: eighth in GIR, 19th in ball striking.
 
Long-Shot Values 
 
Kyle Stanley - $6,800 (Field, 7-2) 

Stanley has been sneaky good so far this season -- his T14 at Torrey Pines was his fourth top-25 in six starts. He's also first on Tour in ball striking, ranking second in total driving and seventh in GIR. Stanley memorably won this tournament back in 2012. He hasn't done much here since, but he's now playing his best in years. 

Bryce Molder - $6,800 (Field, 7-2) 

Ever reliable, Molder has made seven straight Phoenix cuts, peaking with a tie for sixth last year. His GIR ranking is rather unsightly (149th), but after missing three cuts in a row to start the season, Molder has played four consecutive weekends, tying for 41st last week. 

Jim Herman - $6,600 (Field, 7-2) 

Herman had a successful Hawaiian double, tying for 12th at the Tournament of Champions before a solo 10th at the Sony. He's been off since then. Herman's lone visit to TPC Scottsdale last year resulted in a missed cut, but he's an improved golfer. He's fifth in GIR this season. 

Lucas Glover - $6,500 (Field, 7-2) 

We're just hoping to see Saturday, and Sunday. Glover remains one of the best ball strikers on tour. He's fourth overall, breaking down as seventh in total driving and 12th in GIR. Glover has made the cut the past two weeks. He's made 7-of-9 cuts in Phoenix, but he sat out last year.