DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: RBC Heritage

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

Eight of the top 30 in the world and 18 of the top 50 are on hand, though none higher than No. 16 Tyrrell Hatton, who badly missed the Masters cut and heads a strong group of internationals still lingering stateside. Other top-25s in the field are No. 17 Matt Kuchar (T4 at Augusta), No. 19 Danny Willett (MC), No. 22 and defending champion Branden Grace (T27) and No. 25 Brandt Snedeker (T27). Internationals include No. 32 Matthew Fitzpatrick, No. 43 Martin Kaymer, No. 44 Yuta Ikeda and No. 49 Hideto Tanihara. Interestingly, No. 3 Jason Day, sponsored by RBC, is not in the field.

Going from Augusta to Harbour Town is a shock to the system, leaving a course that plays as one of the longest all year to one of the shortest. The big hitters have no advantage; precision play is paramount. We'll be focusing on driving accuracy greens in regulation, proximity, especially scrambling in the key stats and Champion's Profile below. This will be our first look at Harbour Town since it was blasted by Hurricane Matthew last October. Hilton Head Island lost thousands of trees. Last year was the first tournament after a full-course renovation, and two holes were particularly treacherous. The 192-yard 14th was the seventh-hardest hole on Tour last year, with a whopping 64 scores of double-bogey or worse. The signature 18th, at 472 yards with a tiny green, was the 11th-hardest.

Golfers walking off the final hole in disgust at least get a look at the famed red-and-white-striped lighthouse and marina. The track traditionally plays among the hardest, and last year it was eighth toughest of the 50 on Tour.

Weather appears to be a non-factor, with warm temperatures, little wind and little chance of rain through Sunday.

Key Stats to Winning at Harbour Town (in order of importance)

• Scrambling
• Proximity to the hole
• Greens in regulation
• Driving accuracy
 
Past Champions 
 
2016 - Branden Grace 
2015 - Jim Furyk
2014 - Matt Kuchar
2013 - Graeme McDowell
2012 - Carl Pettersson
2011 - Brandt Snedeker
2010 - Jim Furyk
2009 - Brian Gay
2008 - Boo Weekley
2007 - Boo Weekley 

Champion's Profile 
 
Look above at the last 10 champs, and you'll see nary a big hitter. That's because Harbour Town neutralizes their game, as driving distance is historically among the shortest of any tournament. There are narrow, tree-lined fairways, and the width at the 300-yard mark averages out to a slivery 22 yards -- just like Copperhead.

Branden Grace last year was only the second winner since 2010 not in the top-10 in accuracy off the tee or in proximity to the hole. He was 14th in GIR, and only one winner since 2010 was not top-20. Grace, however, was third in scrambling, and that may be the most important stat of all. The greens are tiny at an average of 3,700 square feet, and even the most accurate of iron players will miss them on occasion. Every winner since 2010 has been top-20 in scrambling, and most much higher than that. Grace was 10th in strokes gained putting, which of course helps, but green play historically has not been a decider as much as the other key stats. Small greens can neutralize the best putters.
 
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap) 

Tier 1 Values 
 
Matt Kuchar - $11,500 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 12-1) 

Right off the bat, we're contradicting ourselves. Sort of. Kuchar tied for fourth at the Masters, so he had meaningful play on Sunday. But he does well year after year at Harbour Town after playing Augusta. He won here in 2014, with top-10s the next two years. Kuchar is showing signs of some slippage from his best days, but he's still ninth on Tour in scrambling. Kuchar is the top price in the field, and that often gives us pause, but not as much as some other guys who have zoomed up the DraftKings board this week. Russell Henley is on a great roll, but we simply cannot pull the trigger on him at the No. 2 price of $10,700. 

Kevin Kisner - $9,700 (25-1) 

This price is also a little rich for us, but we have to pick some Tier 1 guys. Kisner certainly is play better than last year, and two years ago was runner-up here to Jim Furyk, He's also coming off 72 holes at the Masters. Kisner is only 113th in GIR, but 13th in proximity and 47th in scrambling. 
 
Tier 2 Values 
 
Adam Hadwin - $8,800 (30-1) 

Hadwin has had a whirlwind spring, winning his first tournament at the Valspar, getting married and competing in his first Masters. We'll see how he responds this week, but his game is well-suited for the course, as he's fourth on Tour in scrambling. Hadwin has been trending in the right direction here, tying for 30th last year after missing the cut in his maiden go-round at Harbour Town. 

Luke Donald - $7,800 (30-1) 

The only thing Donald hasn't done at Harbour Town is win. He's finished top-3 six times in the past eight years, and even though all his key stats are pretty weak, there's no denying course history.

Jason Kokrak - $7,700 (60-1) 

Kokrak is certainly not Donald-like at Harbour Town, but he's gone T6-T18-T12 the past three years. Recent form still counts for a lot in our book. Kokrak has not been great the past month, but not terrible, either.

Wesley Bryan - $7,700 (60-1) 

Bryan has slowed considerably from his late-winter surge, but he's back home in South Carolina at a track he's well familiar with. Bryan also tied for seventh at Copperhead, which has some similarities to Harbour Town. He's T57 in proximity and 35th in scrambling.

Billy Horschel - $7,600 (40-1) 

It's hard to think of a golfer who gives us more angst each week than Horschel. He's sixth in GIR, T45 in proximity and 34th in scrambling, yet his putting torpedoes him week after week. That said, he's made three of his past four cuts this season, with two high finishes, and his putting is not as God-awful as it had been. How's that for a ringing endorsement? He's made four straight cuts at Harbour Town. His 40-1 tag show the oddsmakers think more of him than the DraftKings folk.
 
Tier 3 Values 
 
Luke List - $7,300 (60-1) 

This is where we begin a run on some of our week-in and week-out favorites. Invariably, they all can't continue to do well every week, but we'll keep riding them till we see otherwise. List, of course, is vastly improved this year, 33rd in GIR, T57 in proximity and 36th in scrambling. He's made five consecutive cuts, culminating with a T3 two weeks ago in Houston. List was T39 at Harbour Town last year. 

Kyle Stanley - $7,200 (60-1)

While we've seen some guys' prices zoom up this week, Stanley remains very affordable and very attractive. He's fifth in GIR, sixth in strokes gained tee to green, 13th in driving accuracy, seventh in proximity and 23rd in scrambling. His putting numbers? Don't ask. Stanley was T8 at Houston.

Webb Simpson - $7,200 (25-1) 

Simpson has made six straight cuts here, but all his good finishes came before the anchored-putting ban. He was T66 last year. Still, Simpson is 14th on tour in proximity, 16th in scrambling.

Lucas Glover - $7,200 (60-1) 

Glover had years of woe at Harbour Town, but was T18 two years ago and T33 last year. He's a tee-to-green robot, seventh on Tour in GIR and 13th in proximity. His scrambling and putting certainly aren't great, but nonetheless we've seen him thrive many weeks. 

Chad Campbell - $7,100 (Field, 5-2) 

Campbell is kind of Glover-lite. Same type of game, hasn't had the same results. He's had three top-25s here the past six years (with two MCs). And he was T11 last month at Copperhead. Campbell is 35th in driving accuracy, 42nd in GIR, 35th in proximity and 25th in scrambling. Putting? He's worse than Glover.
 
Long-Shot Values 
 
Hideto Tanihara - $7,000 (Field, 5-2) 

This is a risky pick with a lot of upside. There's not a lot of data on Tanihara, who plays most of his golf in his native Japan. But he is No. 49 in the world, tied for 32nd at the WGC-Mexico and was fourth at the Match Play. He was 28th on the PGA Tour in scrambling until a disastrous two rounds at the Masters dropped him to T64. 

Jim Herman- $6,900 (Field, 5-2) 

Herman hit a rough patch earlier this year, then steadied himself until a missed cut his last time out in Houston. He did have a T3 at Copperhead, and for all the reasons we like him this week: 12th in driving accuracy, 14th in GIR, 41st in proximity. Even his putting numbers are decent. OK, not decent, but mediocre. We'll take it.

Boo Weekley- $6,900 (Field, 5-2) 

Is it enough to say we are picking Weekley because it's fun to watch him and root for him as the fans scream Boooooo? No? OK, how about 10 consecutive cuts made for less than $7,000? Weekley's recent cashes have come nowhere near his back-to-back wins here in 2007-08, but he was 39th last year. Weekley is 60th on Tour in GIR and T35 in proximity, so he does have the right game for Harbour Town.

Zac Blair - $6,500 (Field, 5-2) 

If all PGA Tour courses were short, Blair would be having a much better career. He's made 11-of-15 cuts this season and is coming off his best showing, a T8 at Houston. Blair has made the cut both times at Harbour Town, albeit without a high finish. We are hoping for something a little better this time around. He's eighth in driving accuracy, but runs into trouble with long approach shots (112th in GIR, 8th in proximity). This week, those approach shots will be shorter. And to top it all off, he's second on Tour in scrambling.