This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
ROCKET MORTGAGE CLASSIC
Purse: $8.4M
Winner's Share: $1.35M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Detroit
Course: Detroit Golf Club (North Course)
Yardage: 7,370
Par: 72
2021 Champion: Cam Davis
Tournament Preview
Much like last week at the 3M Open, the Rocket Mortgage Classic has a smattering of big names, but most of the top guys are taking another week off as the playoffs loom two weeks from now. No. 4-ranked Patrick Cantlay is lone golfer in the top-10 in the world, there are only four more in the top-25 and a total of 11 in the top-50. For many in the field of 156, the world rankings are not on their mind -- qualifying for the FedEx Cup playoffs are. Next week's Wyndham Championship will be make or break, but guys with a good tournament this week can relieve a lot of the stress before the regular-season finale.
There's another interesting storyline at the top of the field. Two of the best young players in the game are still looking for their maiden PGA Tour win. Will that life-altering moment come this week for No. 13-ranked Will Zalatoris or No. 19 Cameron Young? Three other stars-of-the-future are in the similar position: Sahith Theegala, Maverick McNealy and Davis Riley are also looking for their breakthrough moment on Tour.
There are some other big names of note -- No. 16 Tony Finau, No. 20 Max Homa, No. 27 Kevin Kisner and Rocket Mortgage pitchman Rickie Fowler -- but tournament organizers have been saddled by their position in one of the dead zones on the PGA Tour calendar. Like their Midwest cousins at the 3M, the new guys on the Tour have to take their knocks.
Same as the 3M, this will be just the fourth Rocket Mortgage Classic, and since the last one the lending giant has re-upped their commitment through 2027. The first two editions at Detroit Golf Club were big-time birdie-fests, with Nate Lashley winning at 25-under in 2019 and Bryson DeChambeau at 23-under a year later. Both had 5-under cut lines, the lowest on Tour since 2016. Last year's winning score was only 18-under -- Cam Davis edged Joaquin Niemann and Troy Merritt in a playoff -- but another 20-under-plus shootout would not surprise this time around. The lower the score, the more of the lesser golfers can contend.
Detroit Golf Club has been around since 1899. Its two 18-hole courses were completed in 1916, both built by famed architect Donald Ross. The North, the longer of the two courses, is used for the tournament, save for one hole from the South (No. 3). The club's website describes the North this way: "It features narrow, tree-lined fairways, which make club selection an important part of the round. The undulating greens and treacherous bunkering ensures you bring your a-game all the way up to the pin." Gosh, they actually make it sound hard.
Last year, there were only 11 double bogeys and 21 over-par rounds on the weekend, which would rank among the lowest totals on Tour this year. There were some bogeys, and there were some eagles, but there really were a ton of birdies -- 1,740 -- which was down from 2020's 1,887, but still a big number.
Despite the website description, the fairways are not that narrow. Yes, there are a lot of trees and there are some holes with strategically placed fairway bunkers. There are many bunkers guarding the holes and severe undulations on the greens, moving back to front with runoffs. But none of it has affected the scores all that much, and golfers hit the greens in regulation at around 80 percent of the time last year. The greens are medium size, averaging 5,150 square feet, and are poa/bentgrass. There's water on just one hole, the par-5, 555-yard 14th. That's one of three gettable par-5s of under 580; there are also four par-4s under 400 -- the golfers will be throwing darts on those holes -- and two par-3s under 170. On the other hand, there's a 233-yard par-3 (the 11th) and a 635-yard par-5 (the 4th). Only six holes played over par last year, including the par-4 18th.
The golf course played among the 10 easiest on Tour in its first two years and just outside the top-10 last year. The opportunity for disaster is lower here than most courses, so we'll be targeting aggressive golfers with great birdie numbers.
Weather-wise, high temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-80s all week, with almost zero chance of rain and light winds. This could be a big-time track meet.
Key Stats to Winning at Detroit Golf Club
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Approach/SG: Tee-to-Green/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Putting/Three-Putt Avoidance
• Birdie Average/Birdie-or-Better Percentage
Past Champions
2021 - Cam Davis
2020 - Bryson DeChambeau
2019 - Nate Lashley
Champion's Profile
Davis' worst score all week was 68, same for playoff loser Troy Merritt, while the third man who tied at 18-under after regulation, Joaquin Niemann, shot no worse than 69. They all went low all week but there was more than one way to do it. A scan of the top of the leaderboard shows there were tee-to-green leaders or putting leaders, not both. In a birdie-fest, you always have to make putts, sure, but when your irons are laser-like you get a little more leeway. Driving distance wasn't all that important last year, but of course DeChambeau let fly during his 2020 win. Here's this little nugget from the PGA Tour's Media Guide: "DeChambeau became the first winner in the ShotLink era (since 2003) to lead the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Putting. He also led the field in Driving Distance (350.6 yards) and Par-4 Scoring Average (3.68)." That seems like a good way to win -- do something no one has ever done before. Seriously, DeChambeau blasted it off the tee, yet ranked only 58th in fairways, but it didn't matter. His worst score all week was 67. Lashley ran away by six strokes. He had two rounds of 63, so he tied the course record TWICE. The over/under on the winning score per golfodds.com is 267.5, which is 20.5 under par, so last year's 18-under did not deter forecasts of another huge birdie-fest.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Patrick Cantlay - $10,700 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +800)
Cantlay is the class of the field at a very affordable price. He hasn't won in the 2022, but he's done everything but. In 15 starts, he has five top-5s, three more top-10s and two more top-15s. He is ranked fourth on Tour in birdie average and sixth in Birdie-or-Better percentage.
Cameron Young - $10,100 (+1800)
Young is one of the longest hitters on Tour, but unlike some of the bombers, he's delivered on shorter tracks too -- third at Harbour Town, runner-up at the Open Championship. He's ranked eighth on Tour in BOB percentage and ninth in birdie average.
Cam Davis - $9,700 (+3500)
Davis is another big hitter -- not quite as long as Young -- but his best results have come at shorter courses. Besides winning here last year, he was third at Harbour Town and seventh at Colonial, and both fields were stouter than this one
Tier 2 Values
Kevin Kisner - $9,100 (+3500)
Short course + Kisner = green light. He was eighth here last year, third the year before. Kisner is averaging only 291 yards off the tee, which really hurts him on so many courses but obviously not here. He's ranked 13th in SG: Putting, 32nd in birdie average and 34th in BOB percentage.
Maverick McNealy - $8,800 (+2500)
McNealy's odds are not especially attractive, but his DFS price is a different story. He's ranked 11th on Tour in BOB percentage, and second on Tour in eagles per hole, just the type of aggressive play we're looking for this week. He finished 21st here last year and eighth the year before. McNealy had a little blip last month with two straight missed cuts, but he's made four straight since then, two of them top-10s plus a top-20.
Davis Riley - $8,600 (+4000)
Riley came back from a long layoff and face-planted at the 3M. Or was it trunk-slammed? Either way, he missed the cut. It wasn't good, but it can happen when is a bit rusty after a multi-week layoff. Perhaps he'll change his routine next time. Riley is ranked in the top-20 on Tour in both birdie average and BOB percentage.
Cameron Tringale - $8,500 (+4000)
Tringale finished 14th here last year, 30th the year before and fifth in 2019. So his eye definitely likes the course. He's been mixing good weeks and bad the past few months -- he was 14th at the U.S. Open and sixth at the Scottish Open, but he also missed the cut last week at the 3M. Tringale has good scoring averages, ranked about 60th on Tour in birdie average, BOB percentage and scoring average.
Russell Henley - $8,200 (+5500)
Henley is so accurate off the tee and from in the fairway that being a mediocre putter hasn't killed him. He's ranked only 107th on Tour in SG: Putting yet is 12th in both birdie average and BOB percentage. That can happen when you're also 26th in driving accuracy and 10th in greens in regulation.
Tier 3 Values
Scott Stallings - $7,700 (+5500)
Stallings has been off for a few weeks. In his last five starts he had three top-10s and two missed cuts. In other words, all or nothing. Stallings is ranked top-50 on Tour in SG: Putting and BOB percentage, a great sign for this week. He's played the first three Rocket Mortgage Classics and gotten better every year: 64th, then 39th, then 25th last year.
Joohyung Kim - $7,600 (+5500)
Kim played last week on a special temporary membership. He has 327 FedEx Cup points, which would place him 131st in the standings right now if he were a full member of the Tour. The 20-year-old from Korea cannot qualify for the playoffs, but finishing the season with the equivalent or better of the 125th-ranked player would give him his card for next season. Kim has played well on hard tracks and easy, including a tie for 25th last week at the 3M, T23 at the U.S. Open and a T17 at the Byron Nelson. He is ranked 39th in the world.
Troy Merritt - $7,600 (+6000)
Sometimes, we shouldn't overly think things. Merritt lost in a playoff here last year and was eighth the year before. He isn't having a great year, but it's not bad, either. Yet somehow he's ranked 40th in scoring average on Tour. Merritt is also 33rd in SG: Putting.
Greyson Sigg - $7,100 (+10000)
Sigg has been rolling of late. We turned to him last week and he delivered a top-10 so we're back for more. Sigg has gone T16-T27-T26-T7 in his last four starts and now is safely inside the top-125 in the point standings at 107th.
Long-Shot Values
Tyler Duncan - $6,900 (+15000)
Duncan has made three straight cuts (plus a WD at the John Deere). As we've often said, long courses are a deal breaker for him, shorter courses are his friends. Duncan has made the cut here the past two years. He is ranked in the top-75 on Tour in scoring average, birdie average and BOB percentage, which is a bit odd for someone 123rd in the FedEx Cup point standings. But we'll take it.
Chesson Hadley - $6,900 (+18000)
Hadley is grinding toward the top-125 in the point standings, now up to 130th. He's made six straight cuts, three of them top-10s, including last week at the 3M. Some of his season-long numbers are awful, but over the past two months they've been far better. Don't forget, Hadley is a very good putter, ranked 21st in SG: Putting.
Kelly Kraft - $6,700 (+20000)
Kraft is another guy pushing toward the top-125. He stands 139th after making seven of his past nine cuts, including T11 last week at the 3M. Kraft is one of the elite putters on Tour, ranked seventh, which means he has a lot of upside this week.
Aaron Baddeley - $6,200 (+50000)
Baddeley is a decent option only if you need a sixth for your lineup. We turned to him last week and he made the cut at the 3M, tying for 49th. That's seven cashes in the past eight starts for the Aussie, three on the PGA Tour and four on the Korn Ferry. He made the cut here last year. Baddeley's strength is his putting, and therefore he always has a chance to get hot. Last week he ranked 25th in the field in SG: Putting.
