This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
FedEx St. Jude Championship
Course: TPC Southwind (7,243 yards, par 70)
Purse: $20,000,000
Winner: $3,600,000 and 2,000 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
Golf's version of the postseason is here and the top-70 players in the standings will start the first of three legs of the FedExCup Playoffs at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Big moves can be made this week with points being quadrupled. The top-50 players in the standings after four rounds at TPC Southwind will head to the BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club for the second leg of the postseason and also be exempt into all the Signature Events in 2025. With points quadrupled again for the BMW the fight will be on to crack the top-30 and earn a spot into the TOUR Championship, which will also secure those players a spot in all four majors in 2025. With the starting strokes format in use again at East Lake, even the top players from this season who are all but locked into the TOUR Championship will still want to do well in these first two events of the playoffs to start as close as they can to the lead to chase the FedExCup title as well as the $25 million bonus that comes with it.
Since the FedExCup Playoffs inception in 2007 this opening playoff event was held mostly in the New York/New Jersey area until 2022 when FedEx decided to become the title sponsor and move it to their home in Memphis at TPC Southwind, which previously hosted a regular PGA Tour event from 1989-2018 and then a World Golf Championship event from 2019-21 before the WGC's were basically replaced by Signature Events on the PGA Tour. Will Zalatoris won his first PGA Tour event in 2022 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in a playoff over Sepp Straka and then Lucas Glover went back-to-back last year in a playoff over Patrick Cantlay in Memphis after winning at the Wyndham Championship the previous week. Zalatoris sits right on the bubble to make the BMW Championship at No. 49 while Glover failed to make the playoffs this season.
The man everyone has been chasing all season is Scottie Scheffler who holds the top spot in the FedExCup standings with his six victories, all of which came in elevated events with more FedExCup points on the line. While it doesn't count for any points, Scheffler added another victory at the Paris Olympics to further cement himself as the best player in 2024. The PGA Championship and Open Championship winner Xander Schauffele sits nearly 2,000 points behind Scheffler in second but about 1,500 points up on Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa in third and fourth. There are some big names sitting outside the top-50 who will be in need of a good week to make it to the BMW Championship. Last year's FedExCup champion Viktor Hovland sits 57th, 2015 FedExCup champion Jordan Spieth is 63rd and two-time PGA Tour winner this season Nick Dunlap is 67th. Mexico Open champion Jake Knapp is holding onto the final spot inside the top-50 by less than a point over Harris English and Nick Taylor.
After Tropical Storm Debby wrecked havoc at the Wyndham Championship last week and made the field play a lot of holes in a short amount of time, things are looking much better better for Memphis this week. It's going to be brutally hot as one would expect in Memphis this time of year, but there also appears to be a relatively limited chance of storms with the most likely occurrence being Friday afternoon. The good news is that even if there are some weather delays, getting back on schedule shouldn't be too difficult with only 70 players in the field. It's been known to get windy at TPC Southwind at times, but 8-12 mph sustained winds for each of the four rounds isn't going to concern the players too much. Even so don't expect Southwind to be a walkover as the winning score since 2010 at this course has been between 9-and-16-under with the exception of Dustin Johnson when he won by six strokes at 19-under in 2018, the final year of the FedEx St. Jude Classic. There are a lot of water hazards out there which can just wreck a round in a heartbeat.
Recent Champions
2023 - Lucas Glover -15 (TPC Southwind)
2022 - Will Zalatoris -15 (TPC Southwind)
2021 - Tony Finau -20 (Liberty National)
2020 - Dustin Johnson -30 (TPC Boston)
2019 - Patrick Reed -16 (Liberty National)
2018 - Bryson DeChambeau -18 (Ridgewood)
2017 - Dustin Johnson -13 (Glen Oaks)
2016 - Patrick Reed -9 (Bethpage)
2015 - Jason Day -19 (Plainfield)
2014 - Hunter Mahan -14 (Ridgewood)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
- Proximity 125-150 yards/150-175 yards
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
Champion's Profile
TPC Southwind is a very demanding ball-striking course. The fairways are narrow and either lined with trees or have water the players will have to avoid. The three-inch bermuda rough won't be much fun to be in either, especially considering these greens are the third smallest targets on Tour. The greens are also heavily guarded by water hazards and tricky bunkers. That being said if you find the green in regulation you will likely have a pretty solid chance for birdie because the bermuda surfaces are pretty flat and run at about 12 on the Stimpmeter. There is a nice wide variety of different holes lengths despite their only being two par-5s. Scrambling should also be an important factor considering the small targets and the difficulties of hitting crisp shots off bermuda. Southwind is a course where you have to maintain focus all the way throughout the round with so many opportunities to make a big number. That's even more difficult in 90 degree and humid conditions. The course will play pretty short because of that so it's not a place you need to hit a lot of drivers on. This is a precision and patience test.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Collin Morikawa ($11,800)
If it's precision we are looking for then Morikawa should be the man this week. He is the most accurate off the tee of all the elite players and he has gained strokes on approach in his last nine measured starts. Morikawa also ranks 10th in SG: Around-the-Green, 15th in scrambling and fifth in putts per GIR. He hasn't finished outside the top-25 since before the Masters and racked up six top-10s in that stretch. T20-T26-T5-T13 in four trips to TPC Southwind.
Ludvig Aberg ($11,500)
Aberg is looking for that statement type of win and this could be the perfect place for it. He is such a great ball striker, ranking 13th in SG: Off-the-Tee, third in total driving, ninth in SG: Approach and 21st in GIR percentage. The Swede is also eighth in proximity 150-175 yards and fifth in par-4 scoring this season. Aberg has finished outside the top-30 just three times in his last 25 starts worldwide with 13 top-10s in that stretch.
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,800)
Matsuyama claimed the bronze medal in Paris and is looking to carry that momentum into the FedExCup Playoffs. He leads the PGA Tour in SG: Around-the-Green, which is impressive because of how good his iron play is as well. Matsuyama gained strokes off the tee in 11 of his last 12 starts, on approach in 10 of his last 12 and around the green in his last 10. He has top-20 finishes in his last three trips to Memphis, including a T2 in 2021.
The Middle Tier
Corey Conners ($10,400)
It's a bit of a surprise that Conners doesn't have a better record at TPC Southwind given the emphasis on ball striking, but he did post a T6 last year. Conners has posted a top-30 in 10 straight starts, with four of those being top-10 results. The Canadian ranks fourth in SG: Approach, 11th in GIR percentage and fourth in proximity 150-175 yards. He hasn't lost strokes on approach in an event since the 2023 Open Championship. Conners also gained strokes around the greens in six of his last seven starts.
Billy Horschel ($9,900)
Horschel has as much experience at TPC Southwind as just about anyone in this field. He has finished top-10 here five times in his last nine starts with two other top-25s sprinkled in. Horschel put in a strong showing in Greensboro with a T7 following his T2 at Royal Troon. The putter continues to be excellent and he has now gained on approach in six of his last eight starts and around the greens in seven of his last nine. Horschel loves bermudagrass and it would be hard to not see him in the mix again this week.
Shane Lowry ($9,700)
The missed cut in Greensboro doesn't worry me at all as Southwind is a much better course fit for his game. Lowry ranks 16th in driving accuracy, ninth in SG: Approach and third in proximity 125-150 yards this season. He is also 15th in par-4 scoring average. Lowry finished T6 here back in 2020 and has gained strokes with the putter in his last three trips to Southwind.
The Long Shots
Sepp Straka ($8,800)
Straka collected seven top-16 finishes in a nine-start stretch, but has a best finish of T22 over his last six starts. I believe that changes this week. Straka is just such a strong course fit and it's no surprise he was runner-up here two years ago. The Austrian leads the Tour in driving accuracy and ranks 34th in SG: Approach. Straka is also eighth in proximity 150-175 yards.
Cam Davis ($8,300)
TPC Southwind doesn't really seem like a Davis course, but when he gets overlooked at a course that requires more precision he just shows up on the leaderboard on Sundays it feels like. Something about Southwind certainly has to fit his eye as he's gone T13-T6 the last two years here. Davis is in solid form having posted top-26 finishes in three of his last four starts including that victory in Detroit.
Eric Cole ($7,900)
Cole was the hottest golfer in the world last fall racking up four top-4 finishes in five starts, but his sophomore season has certainly been more of a struggle. It appears that the 36-year-old is getting back to form making his last six cuts with a trio of top-seven finishes in that stretch, including at the Wyndham Championship. Cole has gained on approach in five of six, around the greens in seven straight, and on the greens in six straight.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
If there was ever a time to fade both Scheffler ($13,200) and Schauffele ($12,500) it would likely be this week. The two have combined for just one top-12 finish in 12 starts at TPC Southwind. Given the amount of quality ball-strikers who are trending in the $10K and upper $9K range, it certainly does make it a little easier to stomach not selecting a Scheffler or Schauffele and also putting together a really balanced lineup. It's also important to remember that there will not be a cut this week, which seems to bring everyone closer together in contests and allows for a ton of movement to be made on Sunday. Overall if you can find an accurate ball striker with a solid short game and some history at Southwind, that's likely the best formula to success.
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