This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
The 152nd Open Championship
Course: Royal Troon (7,358 yards, par 71)
Purse: $17,000,000
Winner: $3,100,000 and 750 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The Open Championship is the most historic event in all of golf. 2024 marks the 152nd edition of this great tournament. There have been 14 different courses to host the Open Championship over that time and Royal Troon will get to host for the 10th time this week. It might not be one of the most famous venues in the Open rota, but it does feature both the longest and shortest hole in Open Championship golf. The shortest is the par-3 8th known as the "Postage Stamp" which measures just 123 yards on the card. The longest hole is the par-5 6th which is listed at 623 yards, three yards longer than the previous record set last year at Royal Liverpool on the par-5 15th hole. There had been six straight American winners at Royal Troon before Henrik Stenson broke that streak with his historic performance back in 2016 when he defeated Phil Mickelson by three shots and the rest of the field by 14 shots. Stenson shot an eight-under 63 in the final round to set the 72-hole scoring record at the Open Championship of 20-under-par (264).
Back in 2016 the Open Championship was still the third major of the year, with the PGA Championship still to be played the following month. There's a different feel at the Open Championship these days with it now being the last major of the year. It makes it an even longer wait until April until we return to major championship golf at the Masters. The stakes feel even that much more this week for players to win a major and turn a good year into a great year, and in Scottie Scheffler's case turn a great year into a historic year. While six wins to this point including a major and THE PLAYERS is awesome, the truly historic seasons we talk about include at least two majors. If Scheffler were to win at Royal Troon he would be the ninth different player to win the Masters and the Open Championship in the same year.
Scheffler has to be the top storyline, but not far behind is Rory McIlroy. It sure looked like he was going to end his decade-long major drought at the U.S. Open. McIlroy stormed into the solo lead with just three holes to play, but short missed putts on the 70th and 72nd hole proved to be the difference and opened the door again to Bryson DeChambeau. How will McIlroy bounce back? Well the first time he suffered that kind of heartbreak at a major championship back at the Masters in 2011 he followed that with a win the very next major being the U.S. Open at Congressional. DeChambeau and Xander Schauffele won the other two majors this year and could spoil the talk around Scheffler this week by taking multiple majors in a year in their own right. There's also a lengthy list of very talented players who will be hoping to break through the major door for the first time at Royal Troon. The leaders on that list being Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Tony Finau and Robert MacIntyre.
When you come to the Open Championship one of the biggest things people always talk about is the weather. In good conditions there's not a course on the Open rota that won't get tore up by these players. On the other hand, in poor conditions it is as big of a mental test as these players will ever face. Conditions can change on a dime in Scotland, but it does appear like we will get proper Open Championship conditions this week at Royal Troon. All four days have a sizable threat of rain and winds are will be at a constant 15-20 mph with gusts up over 30 mph. With there being 158 players to get around this course and everyone going off the 1st tee, there will certainly be points during the day that are more gettable than others. The luck of which side of the draw you get is more of a factor at the Open than any other tournament and has to be something DFS players need to monitor. Given the expected conditions, I'd expect the winning score to be closer to the 6-and-5-under-par that J.B. Holmes and Steve Stricker shot here in 2016 as opposed to the 20-and-17-under-par Stenson and Mickelson shot.
Recent Champions
2023 - Brian Harman -13 (Royal Liverpool)
2022 - Cameron Smith -20 (St Andrews)
2021 - Collin Morikawa -15 (Royal St. George's)
2020 - None
2019 - Shane Lowry -15 (Royal Portrush)
2018 - Francesco Molinari -8 (Carnoustie)
2017 - Jordan Spieth -12 (Royal Birkdale)
2016 - Henrik Stenson -20 (Royal Troon)
2015 - Zach Johnson -15 (St Andrews)
2014 - Rory McIlroy -17 (Royal Liverpool)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
- Three-Putt Avoidance
Champion's Profile
With Royal Troon being a traditional links course that goes out in one direction and then comes back in the opposite direction, the scoring will look drastically different on each nine. Much like St Andrews, the front-nine is where you make your score at Troon. All of those holes will traditionally be down wind and offer a lot of birdie and eagle chance. You will get four par-4s under 410 yards and then a pair of downwind par-5s in the first seven holes. There will be no shortage of players who are three or four-under through that start, maybe even better. Things change in a big way when you step on 10 tee and get ready to feel the brunt of the win. Not only that, but all the par-4s on the back-nine are longer than the ones on the downwind front-nine. There's also a pair of brutally tough par-3s that play over 200 yards on the back. All that to say, players will have to be good in all facets of the game to shoot the best score over 18 holes each day. You have to be good with the short irons and wedges on the front and the long irons and woods on the back.
Putting yourself in good positions coming into the greens is always of most importance so iron play is definitely a big key to success. Especially in windy conditions, being able to flight the ball properly is a big thing. It does tend to hurt some of the high-ball launchers and give the lower-ball hitters a better chance to get it close, especially on soft greens like we should see this week. With all the rain, the fescue grasses bordering the fairways should become more of a hazard. We won't see those same patchy spots where players can still get a lot of club on the ball. If you miss the fairway it more than likely is just a hack to try to get it somewhere around the green and get up-and-down. The fairway bunkers are also plenty steep and in most cases act as a one-shot penalty. While the distance will definitely help, particularly into the wind on the back-nine, I think you have to lean towards the accuracy side of the spectrum at Troon.
If the conditions do end up being challenging, which it looks like we will get, scrambling is certainly going to be a big part of the equation. That being said, scrambling around a course like this is much different than many of your American courses with firm greens and thick rough in close proximity. Players will be given a lot of options and one of the biggest is usually putter because of how close the fairways are cut on this side of the pond. If the greens are wet, some of the short spinning shots around the greens will usually take a skid forward and make it that much tougher to control. Players will also be faced with a number of long putts each round and so avoiding three-putts will be key to look at. These greens have a ton of tiny nuances and lagging it close and avoiding having a lot of four-to-eight footers for par will be the goal.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Rory McIlroy ($12,200)
McIlroy has owned the Open Championship throughout his career with seven top-6 finishes, including his win back in 2014. Troon is a place where he could put on a driving clinic as he ranks second in SG: Off-the-Tee and first in total driving for the season. On top of that he has always been a stellar long-iron player. Add in ranking 12th in scrambling and putting it as good as he ever has in his career, everything seems to be lining up for another strong run at a major with a nice $700 discount from Scheffler.
Xander Schauffele ($11,800)
Schauffele is the most complete player in the game and that's what it requires to win an Open Championship. He has never missed a cut in six starts in this championship to go along with four top-20s. Schauffele ranks top-five in par-3, 4 and 5 scoring this season. He also is 10th in SG: Off-the-Tee, fifth in SG: Approach, first in scrambling and 12th in SG: Putting on the year to further emphasize how strong he is across the board.
Jon Rahm ($11,000)
After missing the U.S. Open with a foot injury and posting disappointing results at the first two majors of the year, Rahm has to be fired up to silence the doubters and prove that he is still one of the best players in the world. I'm anticipating pretty low ownership on Rahm with a lot of other big-name options in this range. The Spaniard has been so strong in the type of conditions expected this week and finished T11 or better in three of the last four Open Championships. Rahm is an elite driver and can control trajectory with the best of them when he's locked in.
The Middle Tier
Tony Finau ($10,400)
Finau comes into the Open Championship red hot with top-20 finishes in his last five starts, including top-five's at the U.S. Open and Travelers. You wouldn't think Finau would be the best links player, but his creativity seems to shine through and it's led to making 6-of-7 cuts in this event and racking up four top-20s, including his first Open Championship start at Royal Troon in 2016. He ranks third in SG: Approach and 17th in SG: Around-the-Green this season while also turning his putting around in a big way as of late.
Tom Kim ($10,200)
With accuracy being favored over distance in the Open Championship, this is a great event for Kim to shine. He finished T2 at the Open last year, and that was while being hobbled by an ankle injury. Kim has been playing some really good golf of late with top-30s in six of his last eight starts, including nearly knocking off Scheffler at the Travelers Championship. Kim's iron play and putting continue to be on the up swing.
Aaron Rai ($9,500)
Rai has now climbed inside the top-20 of the DataGolf rankings with this excellent run of golf. He has gone T14-T19-T2-T7-T4 in his last five starts at a very wide variety of courses. Rai has long been one of the most accurate drivers and iron players, but now his putting is coming along for the ride. He is very dangerous at this price given the confidence and hot putter. Rai also is plenty comfortable playing in wet and windy conditions.
The Long Shots
Alex Noren ($8,800)
Well the last time a Swede in his 40s came to Royal Troon it sure worked out well. Noren checks all the boxes and has finished top-25 in 10 of his last 13 starts, including a T10 last week in Scotland. The tougher the conditions get the better for Noren who ranks third on the PGA Tour in bogey avoidance. His short game is fantastic and he won't put himself in bad spots.
Rasmus Hojgaard ($8,300)
Rasmus has actually been better than his twin Nicolai the last several months and I think he deserves a look at Royal Troon. He is coming off his third straight top-25 finish at the Scottish Open where he didn't even have a great week with the irons. I'm expecting a bounce back in that area because he previous four starts all features great SG: Approach numbers. Hojgaard is also sixth on the DP World Tour this season in SG: Putting.
Davis Thompson ($8,100)
I know Thompson has to be a little fatigued after his win at the John Deere Classic and then going to play the Scottish Open the next week, but his talent is so much better than the price he is listed at. Thompson is 21st in the DataGolf rankings and has proven he can get it done at a variety of venues. People often talk about his great ball-striking, but Thompson also ranks third in SG: Around-the-Green and 21st in putts per GIR.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
Because of the conditions we can get, bounces on the fairways and the widest range of tee times of the year, more luck is involved in the Open Championship than any other major. If ever there were going to be a time to fade Scottie Scheffler ($12,900) this would be it. That being said we could very well be sitting here on Sunday with the World No. 1 locking up a seventh win and second major of the year. This can obviously change, but it doesn't appear like one side of the draw or the other is lined up for a huge advantage in terms of wind, which is certainly a postive for DFS players. This is one of my favorite $10K ranges that I can remember, but I would say just an average $9K range. I'm favoring a balanced build for the Open with a lack of appealing options in the $7K range.
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