This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
WM Phoenix Open
Course: TPC Scottsdale (7,261 yards, par 71)
Purse: $8,800,000
Winner: $1,584,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
There really is no other tournament like it. The Phoenix Open is annually the most-attended tournament on the schedule and features one of the most iconic holes in the world. It's really a simple hole the par 3 16th that measures just under 170 yards, but the atmosphere around it is unlike anything else in the game. Every year it seems like the temporary grandstand grows higher and higher around this hole giving it a true stadium feel with thousands of well hydrated spectators ready to let you know exactly how they feel about your shot.
It's not just the 16th hole, however, the back-nine is one of the most entertaining watches there is. There are several holes where you can make birdies and eagles, but also plenty where you can find a watery grave. No lead is safe coming down the stretch on Sunday and is part of the reason why we have seen playoffs in five of the last eight tournaments. The Phoenix Open has been played on Super Bowl Weekend since 1973 and it always is an exciting lead in to the big game. While the PGA Tour does move up tee times in the final round to try to get everything wrapped up before kickoff, all of the recent playoffs we've had have pushed the golf into the first possession or so of the game. Last year Phoenix hosted both this event and the Super Bowl, but Scottie Scheffler was able to get it done in regulation by two strokes over Nick Taylor. In 2022 Scheffler picked up his first PGA Tour win after a hard fought playoff with Patrick Cantlay.
That brings us to the 2024 edition where World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will be looking for three in a row at TPC Scottsdale and hoping to join Arnold Palmer, Gene Littler, Mark Calcavecchia and Phil Mickelson as other three-time Phoenix Open champions. This season will be different than last in the sense that this is no longer one of the now coined "Signature Events" on the PGA Tour. The Tour elected to swap that status in 2024 to Pebble Beach and keep the WM Phoenix Open on its traditional date. That has moved the purse to "just" $8.8 million, down from $20 million last year. Looking at the field, however, you wouldn't really know notice much of a difference. Nine of the top-20 in the OWGR are teeing it up this week including last week's winner Wyndham Clark.
This will be a very different Phoenix Open due to what is coming. That nasty storm that has hit California is making its way towards Phoenix and it will certainly affect the play this week. Thankfully the worst of it is expected to be over by the time the first tee shot of the tournament is hit on Thursday, but we still could see some more showers in the first three rounds where temperatures are expected to barely creep into the 50s. Things should be all clear for the final round where we may see temperatures hit 60. The wind should be relatively moderate and steadily decrease as the week goes along. 14 to 19-under-par has been the winning score 15 of the last 16 years with the one exception being Phil Mickelson's record-tying 72-hole score of 28-under in 2013. Even with the course playing soft, the rain and temperatures should still present a challenge so I'd expect something around 15-under-par again this week.
Recent Champions
2023 - Scottie Scheffler (-19)
2022 - Scottie Scheffler (-16)
2021 - Brooks Koepka (-19)
2020 - Webb Simpson (-17)
2019 - Rickie Fowler (-17)
2018 - Gary Woodland (-18)
2017 - Hideki Matsuyama (-17)
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama (-14)
2015 - Brooks Koepka (-15)
2014 - Kevin Stadler (-16)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- SG: Approach
- Scrambling
- SG: Putting
Champion's Profile
This cold and rainy weather has turned TPC Scottsdale into a driving contest. We won't see all the 300+ yard drives with balls racing down the fairways. It's going to be all about carry and accuracy. This rough has gotten thicker over the years and when it gets wet you won't want to mess with it. When you hit fairways, players will be able to attack more than usual because of the receptive greens, but there will also be a lot of scrambling going on for players who can't control their driver. The bermudagrass putting surfaces will be slow because of the rain, which will allow players to be aggressive.
This is a week where we are looking for players who are long and straight off the tee, but can also fill it up on the greens. There will be plenty of birdies for players who are consistently putting the ball in the fairway, but also plenty of bogeys from players who are having to deal with the rough on their second or third shots.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Sam Burns ($11,300)
A bomber that can roll the rock is the perfect way to describe Sam Burn's game. He has been rolling with top-15 finishes in four of his last six PGA Tour starts. What also stands out is the fact that he has gained strokes on the greens in 11 of his last 13 starts. Burns finished T6 last year at TPC Scottsdale and gained strokes in every category.
Min Woo Lee ($10,900)
He might not look like it but Lee has club head speed for days. The Aussie has gained strokes off-the-tee in 12 of his last 14 measured rounds. Lee also head a stretch of nine straight events gaining strokes on the greens last season. He has finished top-25 in 12 of his last 17 starts worldwide including a pair of victories.
Wyndham Clark ($10,500)
I typically avoid taking a player right after a victory, but this value is too good for a course that perfectly suits his game. Clark can carry the ball as far as anyone on Tour and his confidence on the greens has to be sky high after pouring in putts left and right at Pebble Beach. Clark has also gained on approach in eight of his last nine tournaments and finished top-10 at TPC Scottsdale last year.
The Middle Tier
Byeong Hun An ($10,200)
TPC Scottsdale might be An's favorite course on Tour, as he owns a pair of top-10s and four top-25s in five starts. Now he is playing the best golf of his career with four top-5 finishes in his last eight starts. An gained strokes off the tee, around the green and with the putter in all but one of those eight tournaments. He is a legit OAD option this week even in this stacked field.
Si Woo Kim ($9,700)
Kim comes with a bit of a risk because of how bad he is on the greens, but the rest of his game is very strong and he's still gettin the finishes. Kim has finished top-25 in five of his last nine events. He has also gained strokes off the tee in his last 11 and gained around the green in all but one of those. The four-time winner on the PGA Tour ranked top-5 last week in GIR and has finished T26-T23 the last two years at TPC Scottsdale.
Beau Hossler ($9,600)
Hossler started to turn it on the second half of 2023 and has carried that right into 2024 going T6 at Torrey Pines and T14 at Pebble Beach last week. He now has finished top-15 in five of his last six starts. Hossler has the ideal type of length we are looking for and has also gained strokes with the putter in eight of his last ten measured tournaments. He grabbed a T14 at TPC Scottsdale behind a final-round 63.
The Long Shots
Erik van Rooyen ($8,600)
The way van Rooyen has turned around his ball-striking has been quite impressive. Last season he missed 9-of-11 cuts and was getting lapped in SG: Approach. The South African has now finished top-25 in eight of his last 11 starts and has gained on approach in all but one of those events. EVR has also been bombing it early this season as he ranks 14th in SG: Off-the-Tee.
Davis Thompson ($8,400)
Thompson is another player that turned up his game after a tough first half of 2023. He has now notched top-35 finishes in eight of his last 12 starts. Thompson is a very strong driver of the golf ball ranking 26th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 16th in total driving last season. He has also picked up strokes on approach in seven of his last eight measured tournaments.
Nick Hardy ($7,900)
Hardy might not be racking up the high finishes, but what he is doing is making the weekend consistently, in fact he has not missed a cut on the PGA Tour in his last 10 starts and has made the cut in 15-of-16. Hardy hits it long and has shown throughout his career the ability to pop with the putter. He has also gained on approach in five of his last six measured events.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
It's been the year of the long shot so far in 2024. It's not necessarily that some of the top dogs have played bad, but it's been the performance from some of the more unheralded names that have really made a big difference for GPP players. Most of the optimal lineups are leaving thousands of dollars in salary on the table. While it's not something I'd recommend, if you find some names you like lower on the salary board, don't worry about feeling like you need to pick a higher priced name that's going to garner a 30+ percent ownership so you don't leave money on the table. This week I think knowing the expected conditions will make a big impact. Typically distance isn't an overwhelming factor at TPC Scottsdale, but given the cold and rainy forecast for the week I think distance is going to play as much of a factor as it ever has here.
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