This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
There's an official start to the PGA Tour season, now in autumn. And there's an unofficial start, the first tournament of the calendar year, the Tournament of Champions. Then there's the first full-field event of the new calendar year at the Sony. But there's yet another unofficial start to the season, this week at the Farmers Insurance Open.
The Farmers is the first event of the year that brings out a gaggle of high-end talent and it's our first glimpse at a tough track, Torrey Pines South. The North Course is also in play this week for one round, and it's definitely easier than the South Course, but it's not a cakewalk.
This week: Farmers Insurance Open - Torrey Pines, La Jolla, Calif.
Last Year: Jason Day shot a final round 70 on his way to a playoff victory over Alex Noren and Ryan Palmer.
FAVORITES
Jon Rahm (10-1)
It's a little surprising to see Rahm as the favorite considering the strength of this field, but his track record here is pretty solid. Rahm won this event in 2017 and was atop the leaderboard midway through his third round last year only to fizzle down the stretch. His form is good entering this week, and he's played well in six of eight rounds at this event, which means he should definitely be considered among the favorites this week.
Rory McIlroy (12-1)
This is a perfect example of odds being set a certain way as a projection of how the public
There's an official start to the PGA Tour season, now in autumn. And there's an unofficial start, the first tournament of the calendar year, the Tournament of Champions. Then there's the first full-field event of the new calendar year at the Sony. But there's yet another unofficial start to the season, this week at the Farmers Insurance Open.
The Farmers is the first event of the year that brings out a gaggle of high-end talent and it's our first glimpse at a tough track, Torrey Pines South. The North Course is also in play this week for one round, and it's definitely easier than the South Course, but it's not a cakewalk.
This week: Farmers Insurance Open - Torrey Pines, La Jolla, Calif.
Last Year: Jason Day shot a final round 70 on his way to a playoff victory over Alex Noren and Ryan Palmer.
FAVORITES
Jon Rahm (10-1)
It's a little surprising to see Rahm as the favorite considering the strength of this field, but his track record here is pretty solid. Rahm won this event in 2017 and was atop the leaderboard midway through his third round last year only to fizzle down the stretch. His form is good entering this week, and he's played well in six of eight rounds at this event, which means he should definitely be considered among the favorites this week.
Rory McIlroy (12-1)
This is a perfect example of odds being set a certain way as a projection of how the public is likely to bet. With so many big names in the field this week, many of which have solid track records, there's no reason why McIlroy, a first-timer here, should be the second favorite. As such, there's no value with McIlroy at these odds, as a win this week seems highly unlikely.
Tiger Woods (14-1)
A little surprising that Woods is not the favorite, but there is still a little skepticism about the state of his game and whether he is truly back. When Tiger was in his prime, this was one of his spots. In fact, this might have been the spot. In a span of eight starts, Woods won six times, including four consecutive wins. If we had any idea the state of his game entering this week, Woods could be considered the runaway favorite, but we haven't seen him for a while. That said, he should be the favorite this week and has a lot of value at this price.
MID-TIER GOLFERS
Tony Finau (18-1)
Unlike last week, you aren't going to see many, if any golfers on this list with high odds. This event rarely produces a surprise winner, and the field is loaded, which means it's a good week to focus on the chalk. There are bigger names in the field, but it wouldn't surprise anyone if Finau won this week. Finau has yet to finish outside the top-25 here in four starts and he's finished in the top-10 in his past two.
Rickie Fowler (25-1)
Fowler has struggled mightily here over the past five years, missing the cut in four of those five starts, but prior to that stretch, he had a really good run at Torrey Pines. In his first four starts at this event, Fowler finished no worse than T20. His recent run has inflated his odds and he's no longer in the "favorite" category, but that just means he has more value as a mid-tier guy who no one expects anything out of this week.
Charles Howell III (28-1)
Prior to last fall, putting odds on Howell to win seemed like a futile gesture as his winning days seemed well behind him, but that all changed when Howell broke his lengthy winless drought. It seems reasonable to once again project Howell as a possible winner, and if he is to win during the "regular" season, this could be the spot. Howell has been amazingly consistent at this event over the years, making the cut in each of his 16 starts and finishing in the top 10 in three of his last five starts here.
LONGSHOTS
Alex Noren (40-1)
Every season there is a guy, usually a European, that the golf media trips over itself to proclaim as the next big thing and last year that guy was Noren. Noren was unable to break through, but he came close in a couple spots - and this was one as he lost in a three-way playoff to Jason Day. That was Noren's first start at this event, however, which means we can't be sure if he was simply hot for one week or if he truly has a feel for this course. At these odds, though, he's worth a shot.
Brandt Snedeker (40-1)
If not for Tiger Woods' dominance at this event, Snedeker would be the king here. In his 12 starts Torrey Pines, Snedeker has two wins, two runner-ups, a solo third and two additional top-10s. When healthy, Snedeker has almost always played well at this event. He's healthy once again and he's not that far removed from a victory on the PGA Tour. He's not quite the force he was five years ago, but he still has plenty of high level golf in him.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Optimal pick: Tiger Woods - Woods has several spots on the schedule that he's dominated over the years and for those in one-and-done pools, it's up to you to decide which one of those spots to use him. As mentioned, the only hesitation is that we don't know his form, but those years when he was winning here, we probably didn't know his form entering those weeks either.
Buyer beware: Rory McIlroy - This is McIlroy's first start at this event, and if some of the other big guns were in the same boat, perhaps he'd be a good pick this week, but that's not the case. Woods, Rahm, Jason Day, Finau and more, all have solid track records at this event; there's no reason to take a first-timer.
Last week: Adam Hadwin (T2) - $519,200; Season - $2,461,495
This week: Tiger Woods - This was not an easy selection. I heavily considered Rahm, but he's had trouble closing for a while now and I just have a feeling about Woods this week. I'm obviously taking a big chance using him here as there will be some great spots down the line, but you have to use him somewhere and it might as well be a place where he's had a ton of success.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Tiger Woods ($11,500)/Tony Finau ($10,700)/Rory Sabbatini ($7,900)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Adam Hadwin - (T2); Streak - 2
This week: Charles Howell III - Howell III would be a good pick in a one-and-done format, but he's a great pick in this format. With all the big guns in the field, you could go with a bigger name in this spot, but you might as well save the big names for a major as Howell III is just as likely to make the cut as any big gun this week.
