This article is part of our Golf One and Done Pool Expert Picks series.
THE PLAYERS Championship
Often referred to as "The Fifth Major", THE PLAYERS Championship is the PGA Tour's flagship event with the biggest purse in golf at $25 million. The best 144 players on the PGA Tour will all be competing for that top spot and look to put themselves in the history books. While it might not count as a major, every player will feel that something was missing from their resume if they end their career without a Players Championship trophy.
Since this is the biggest purse of the year, this is also the most important tournament of the year for One and Done players. Picking the winning player and getting the $4.5 million that comes with it can change the trajectory of your standing in your OAD pool. That said, the nature of TPC Sawgrass is built for volatility. Many of the top players in this field have pretty varied results over the years here. Even the best are not safe from a couple slight misses that take them out of the tournament completely.
Course Tidbits
- Course: TPC Sawgrass (7,352 yards, par 72)
- Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
- Purse: $25 million ($4.5 million to winner)
- Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-20)
- Average Winning Score Last 5 Tournaments: -16
Much like Bay Hill last week, TPC Sawgrass is a complete test with trouble lurking all around. Good scores will be shot, but if a player is just a little off, big numbers are not hard to find. This is not a course players will be able to overpower, which really keeps players of all lengths in the ballgame. It's all about precision off the tee and on approach to give yourself the best chance to contend.
The green complexes are no picnic either. There's a lot of runoff areas, tricky greenside bunkers and thick rough close to these greens that players will have to contend with if they are out of position on their first or second shots. These putting surfaces are some of the purest on Tour and you can make quite a few if you are putting the ball in the right positions. That said, if you miss some of the ridges and slopes that bisect these greens, two-putting will be no easy feat.
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THE PLAYERS Championship: One and Done Picks
I mentioned this past week that if my Scottie Scheffler play did not work, I'd be in scramble mode the rest of the season, and while I believe I need to take some chances now, I don't want to get cute this week. Matsuyama is a little under radar, especially with Xander Schauffele returning and Collin Morikawa nearly winning at Bay Hill. I think we'll see a majority on Scheffler, and the rest of the ownership scattered, which should provide some opportunity to move up the standings if Matsuyama plays well. His track record here indicates that even if he doesn't win, he'll be in the mix. --Greg Vara
Im should fly a bit under the radar this week considering he hasn't played all that well since posting a pair of top-5s early in the year, but he showed better form with a top-20 at Bay Hill last week. He's no stranger to playing well in Florida, having won at PGA National and has also had success at TPC Sawgrass with a T6 here in 2023 in which he was third in SG: Off-the-Tee. His steady all-around game makes him a great target. --Ryan Pohle
What better place for Fleetwood to finally pick up that elusive first PGA Tour win? His consistency with the ball striking over the last 12 months has been really only matched by the likes of Scheffler and Morikawa. Fleetwood has gained strokes on approach in 18 of his last 19 starts, 11 of those being by at least 1.15 strokes per round. He has also gained off the tee in 12 of his last 13 starts. Fleetwood has only missed one cut in seven starts at TPC Sawgrass with a pair of top-7 finishes and four top-30s in that span. --Ryan Andrade
Many people are probably wondering: What has happened to Scheffler? I get it. He's 0-for-4 in 2025. But his numbers are not that bad. Meaning, he's likely close. In just those four starts, he has two top-10s and two top-25s, and he's 13th in the FedExCup Standings. He's seventh in SG: Approach, second in Tee-to-Green, even 30th in Putting. He will have to clean up his driving accuracy this week, but otherwise that's a perfect fit for Sawgrass. It's hard to keep backing Scheffler and not see him win, but I'm sticking around, with the highest winner's payout of the season at $4.5 million. --Len Hochberg
Despite the massive $4.5M top prize, I'm comfortable traveling a bit further down the projected ownership list at an event as volatile as THE PLAYERS, with a volatile player himself such as Thomas, who resides 25/1 or shorter in the outright market but isn't someone we need to save for a major. He just burned his backers over the weekend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he ultimately lost a season-worst 5.3 strokes with the flat stick on Bay Hill's bermuda greens. However, the 2021 PLAYERS champion remains top-5 on Tour in both SG: Approach and rough proximity this season, while I also expect some positive putting regression on the poa trivialis overseed at TPC Sawgrass. --Bryce Danielson
THE PLAYERS Championship: One and Done Fades
It's tough to pick one this week because in reality, everyone is potentially a bad pick due to the nature of this course. If you need proof, just check the track record of anyone in the field and you're going to see some bad outings. No one is immune, even Scheffler has a MC and a T55 here. With that said, I'm not really feeling Thomas. Yes, he won here in 2021, but in the start prior to that win and three starts since, he's failed to crack the top 30. His form his season has been good, but not great, and even when he's played well, he's had trouble putting four rounds together. --Greg Vara
It's always risky fading a star player like McIlroy, especially considering he's a past champion here. However, this isn't really a place that suits his strengths, as the length advantage is certainly negated at Sawgrass. Outside of his win in 2019 at The PLAYERS, his best result is T19 across his last six appearances. Saving Rory for the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow or one of the other majors makes a lot more sense. --Ryan Pohle
Clark lipped out on the final hole in this event last year to miss a potential playoff with Scheffler by one shot. Apart from a T3 a month later at Harbour Town, Clark has not really been in position late to win a golf tournament since then. He hasn't even finished inside the top-10 since the TOUR Championship. Clark rode one of the best putting weeks of his career to that T2 last year, but his strength with the driver gets somewhat neutralized on this tight course where you need to work the ball both directions. They'll be better fits for him down the road. The ball-striking just hasn't been consistent enough of late to trust him at a venue like TPC Sawgrass with so much trouble. --Ryan Andrade
It took him almost three years to win. It might take him another three to win again. --Len Hochberg
Not only did McIlroy unsuccessfully experiment with equipment changes at the API last week, but his ball striking seemed especially off throughout his final 54 holes in Orlando where he lost nearly five strokes on approach combined across Rounds 2-4. A superb short-game performance guided him to a T15 result, but you need more than that from a player of McIlroy's caliber to compete for a OAD title. McIlroy also hit only 24 of 56 fairways in regulation at Bay Hill, and driving accuracy issues would be extremely detrimental at TPC Sawgrass as well. Looking at the 2025 schedule, he's better suited for consideration somewhere like Quail Hollow for the PGA Championship or back home in Northern Ireland for The Open. --Bryce Danielson
