Golf One and Done Pool Expert Picks: TOUR Championship

The top picks for one and done golf leagues at the TOUR Championship. See why some of our RotoWire experts are targeting Cameron Young in the FedExCup season finale at East Lake.
Golf One and Done Pool Expert Picks: TOUR Championship

TOUR Championship

The TOUR Championship is now the single largest purse in golf at $40 million with the winner taking home a big $10 million payday. That's more than double what the winner takes home at THE PLAYERS Championship ($4.5 million). Depending on your one and done league rules, getting the winner right this week at East Lake could have massive consequences to your season-long standings. The good news is that this year it will be a little different than what it has been in the past. With no more starting strokes, all 30 players in the field have a fair shot at the top prize, and even if you've used all the top guys at this point, there's still likely a pretty solid option you have available to try and take the title home. 

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Course Tidbits

  • Course: East Lake Golf Club (7,490 yards, par 70)
  • Location: Atlanta, Georgia
  • Purse: $40 million ($10 million to winner)
  • Defending FedEx Cup Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-30)
  • 2024 Lowest 72-hole Score: Collin Morikawa (-22)
  • 2024 Scoring Average: 68.62 (-2.38)
  • Average Lowest 72-hole Score Last 5 Years: -17.4

East Lake is one of the most complete tests the PGA Tour has to offer. With the Tour now going away from the starting strokes format, the focus is now trying to make this an exceptionally hard challenge for the top players. Last year was the first edition since a renovation from Andrew Green that brought the golf course back to the look and feel of the original design. Scottie Scheffler used his starting stroke advantage to win at 30-under-par, but it was Collin Morikawa who shot the lowest gross score at 22-under-par, two better than Scheffler. The scoring average for the field was also nearly 2.5 strokes under-par. 

This year the 14th hole is going back to being a long par-4 and East Lake will once again be a par 70. The tricky Bermuda rough is also about an inch longer than last year. The redesign brought in a lot of new options for hole locations, but most of them weren't used last year. Expect the Tour to get aggressive with some of the pins to create a more difficult challenge. Unfortunately, with the forecast being hot and humid with very little wind, there's not really going to be much resistance available from the conditions. The threat of storms virtually every afternoon in the August heat will leave the greens more receptive than the Tour would likely want. 

The biggest key this week is going to be playing out of the short grass. Thick and potentially wet Bermuda grass is not where you want to be hitting approach shots from into greens with plenty of areas that have tricky up-and-down's. With a number of beefy par-4s and par-3s, we'll see a lot of mid-to-long irons giving the best approach players a better chance to separate. Last year Scheffler ranked first in SG: Off-the-Tee, third in SG: Approach and first in GIR's for the week. Morikawa was second in SG: Off-the-Tee, fifth in SG: Approach and first in driving accuracy. 

Visit RotoWire's PGA earnings report to find total winnings and winnings per entry via our fantasy golf stats pages.

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TOUR Championship: One and Done Picks

Cameron Young

At this point in the year it's all about who's hot and who's not. We see it every season where a guy catches fire late and is able to ride that all the way to East Lake. This year that has been Young who dominated the Wyndham Championship, then followed that up with a 5th in Memphis and an 11th at Caves Valley last week. Young has been one of the best drivers and putters on the PGA Tour over the last few months which has led to six top-11 finishes in his last 11 starts. The iron play is also miles better than it was at the beginning of the season. One more good showing and he likely locks up a Ryder Cup spot as well. --Ryan Andrade

Harry Hall

While pressure to make a Ryder Cup team can break an individual, sometimes it can help. In Hall's case specifically, it looks like he's on the outside looking in and that might be providing a little extra motivation. It's one thing to play well because you want to, it's another to play well to spite someone. I'm not sure that's what's going on right now, but it sure does look like Hall is playing with a little something extra right now and I'm sure he would love to make things more complicated for Luke Donald by playing well again this week. --Greg Vara

It Depends

It's paramount to utilize game theory concepts at this stage, so don't simply click your "best" remaining player for the OAD finale without first sifting through the top of your leaderboard to view the available possibilities of your prime competitors as well. Monitoring who they're likely to pick should have an impact on who you pick in order to maximize your winnings, as you seek to either make a move into/ascend within the prize zone, or maintain your best possible position ITM. For example, I'm currently third place in a pool in which I can't physically overtake first, as they've already clinched the season-long win. So, I'll be ignoring them and game planning against the second-place entry, while also minding the nearby fourth and fifth-place selections in an effort to optimize my chances of not only improving a spot, but avoiding a last-minute tumble as well. Just because you saved dearest Rory McIlroy might not automatically make him a must-play despite his ostensibly promising, but roughly only 11-percent implied odds of winning this week, as others ahead of you might've saved him as well. Unless you have side action, there's no difference between finishing one spot on the wrong side of the payout bubble versus coming in last place. As goes for any peer-to-peer pool, swallow your pride and play to win if you still can. --Bryce Danielson

Cameron Young

A lot of this is dictated by who you have left. If you still have Young available, I think he can contend at East Lake. He started slowly at the BMW Championship but played the closing three rounds in nine-under which was only two strokes behind champion Scottie Scheffler. There aren't many golfers in better form right now, and I think that holds much more importance than usual as this is the type of venue that will expose weaknesses. We know that Young has a high ceiling when he's playing well, which has been the case often this summer. --Ryan Pohle

J.J. Spaun

Expert tip: If you haven't used Scottie Scheffler yet, this would be a good time. On the other hand, if you were saving Xander Schauffele all season for East Lake, um, oh well, you surely were not alone. There aren't many choices left and not many different ways to go. Spaun is the pick here. He's shown he can win big events, and almost did so two weeks ago in a playoff loss to Justin Rose. I see similarities between TPC Southwind and East Lake. Both are long par-70s with a premium on getting the ball in the fairway. The winning score should be mid- to upper teens. It will be sweltering hot, bringing fitness into play. And maybe most important of all, Spaun now knows in his heart he can play on golf's biggest stages. --Len Hochberg

TOUR Championship: One and Done Fades

Justin Thomas

Thomas has a great record at East Lake finishing inside the top-7 in seven of his eight career starts. That said, this is his worst season in terms of driving accuracy of his career. Playing out of the rough is going to be extremely difficult this week, and it's a course where you are going to need to hit a lot of drivers. Thomas also really hasn't been a threat most of the summer with just one top-10 finish in his last eight starts, and that was only a T9 at the Travelers. We need someone who has been putting their name near the top of the leaderboard recently given the hefty purse and there's plenty of better options for that you likely have available. --Ryan Andrade

Keegan Bradley

I'm just going to leave Bradley in the same spot as this past week. It's pretty clear that he's got too much to think about right now and perhaps too much pressure to play well this week. Bradley has been under a microscope for the past few months and unfortunately for him, he's been unable to put the playing captain thing to rest by sealing an automatic bid. I still believe he should be playing at the Ryder Cup, but that has no bearing on this week and as such, I think he's a poor play this week. --Greg Vara

Collin Morikawa

I know he posted the lowest 72-hole gross score here last year, but Morikawa lacks power off the tee, his short game is in shambles and he no longer vibes with caddies (emphasis on the plurality). As a fellow American, here's to hoping Keegan Bradley considers these elements when making his Team USA selections as well. --Bryce Danielson

Justin Thomas

Thomas has historically been one of the most consistent players at the TOUR Championship, but I'm not convinced that's going to hold up this year. We know that keeping the ball in the fairways is critical around East Lake, and he's been wildly inaccurate which was a key factor in him failing to record a top-25 in the four majors on top of only having one top-20 across his last eight starts. --Ryan Pohle

Justin Thomas

Thomas is a frequent visitor to this space. He still has only one top-20 since May (T9 at the Travelers). He was a non-factor in both playoff events (T33, T28). He still can't find a fairway (153rd on Tour in driving accuracy). Not only is he a fade here, but -- and not that you asked -- he will be a real liability if he continues to miss fairways at Bethpage Black. --Len Hochberg

Don't get burned by late withdrawals. Visit RotoWire's PGA tournament field page for a live-updated summary of the field for the current week and list of players who have dropped out.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Ryan has covered golf, college basketball, and motorsports for RotoWire since 2016. He was nominated for "DFS Writer of the Year" in 2021 and 2023 by the FSWA.
Bryce covers the PGA for RotoWire and provides input on the golf cheat sheet. He also contributes to the coverage for NFL, NBA and other sports.
Len Hochberg has covered golf for RotoWire since 2013. A veteran sports journalist, he was an editor and reporter at The Washington Post for nine years. Len is a three-time winner of the FSWA DFS Writer of the Year Award (2020, '22 and '23) and a five-time nominee (2019-23). He is also a writer and editor for MLB Advanced Media.
Ryan Pohle is a DFS Product Specialist at RotoWire and has written for the site since 2020.
Vara is the lead golf writer at RotoWire. He was named the FSWA Golf Writer of the Year in 2005 and 2013. He also picks college football games against the spread in his "College Capper" article.
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