This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
As we approach the final event of the fall season, the final event before the real offseason, I thought it would be fun to look back at what has transpired already this season and see if anything caught my eye.
With the new schedule and the addition of some big overseas events, it's no surprise that we had a couple big-name players, Justin Thomas and Justin Rose, win during fall, and the fact that we had a couple surprises with Ryan Armour and Brendan Steele win was not much of a surprise either. To anyone who watched the second half of the 2016-17 season, Patrick Cantlay's win wasn't a huge surprise at it was only a matter of time before he broke through.
Really, the only surprise was the lack of impact rookies had during fall. After all, this is supposed to be their time to shine. Is this a sign that the rookie class of 2017-18 will not have as much of an impact as those of the last few years? It's obviously too early to tell, but one trend that has developed since the implementation of the new schedule is that rookies who played well during the fall portion of the season rarely carried that over to the new year. With that in mind, I'd say there's nothing really to worry about regarding the new rookie class. If anyone is to leave his mark, it will be done during the 2018 portion of the schedule anyway.
2017 was
As we approach the final event of the fall season, the final event before the real offseason, I thought it would be fun to look back at what has transpired already this season and see if anything caught my eye.
With the new schedule and the addition of some big overseas events, it's no surprise that we had a couple big-name players, Justin Thomas and Justin Rose, win during fall, and the fact that we had a couple surprises with Ryan Armour and Brendan Steele win was not much of a surprise either. To anyone who watched the second half of the 2016-17 season, Patrick Cantlay's win wasn't a huge surprise at it was only a matter of time before he broke through.
Really, the only surprise was the lack of impact rookies had during fall. After all, this is supposed to be their time to shine. Is this a sign that the rookie class of 2017-18 will not have as much of an impact as those of the last few years? It's obviously too early to tell, but one trend that has developed since the implementation of the new schedule is that rookies who played well during the fall portion of the season rarely carried that over to the new year. With that in mind, I'd say there's nothing really to worry about regarding the new rookie class. If anyone is to leave his mark, it will be done during the 2018 portion of the schedule anyway.
2017 was quite the year on the PGA Tour, and while it's always fun to look back, I'd dare say there's more to look forward to next year.
This week: OHL Classic at Mayakoba - El Camaleon Golf Club, Playa Del Carmen, Mexico
Last Year: Pat Perez shot a final-round 67 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Gary Woodland.
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER
Pat Perez
Perez's win here last year came as a surprise, but if he were to pull off another victory this week, it wouldn't be shocking at all. Perez has come a long way in the last 12 months, posting the best season in his career and he's already backed up his solid 2016-17, with a great start to the new season. Outside of his win last year, his track record isn't great here, but he's a different player than he's been at any point in the last decade.
Russell Knox
Knox has not played well this fall, his best outing was a T65 at the Safeway Open, but perhaps a trip back to Mexico will snap him out of his current funk. Knox has finished runner-up and solo-3rd in his past two starts at this event and he's a perfect 5-5 on cuts made. It's always dangerous taking a guy who is not playing well coming in, but Knox obviously has a good feel for this course.
Jason Bohn
Bohn is by no means a safe pick this week – he's the exact opposite – but he does have a lot of upside. Let's start with the risk – Bohn has only one start this fall and it resulted in a withdrawal from the Sanderson Farms Championship, but the good news is that was two weeks ago and he's listed in the field this week, so he must be feeling better. The upside is his track record, which consists of three top-10s in the last four years.
Charles Howell III
Howell is generally a chip you save for the first few months of the calendar year, but if you want to get a jump on the competition, this might be the spot. Howell has a nice track record at this event with six top-20s in his last seven starts here. That includes two top-10s as well.
Graeme McDowell
Certainly not a name you'd expect to see on this list in fall ... at an event in Mexico, but here he is. The reason he's here is his track record, of course, as he won here in 2016 and finished in the top 25 last year. He's also coming off a top-10 last week at the Shriners Open.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Rickie Fowler
It certainly is risky putting Fowler on this list against a field that doesn't have much fire power, but his decision to play here is what has me worried. Fowler hasn't played a single fall event and now he's deciding to play this event? This has Mexican vacation written all over it, and I doubt that he'll have his best game this week.
Tyler Duncan
Two months ago, Duncan wasn't even a big enough name to make it on this list, but after a strong opening showing at the Safeway Open, he's at least a known commodity. That said, his top-5 at the Safeway is his only quality start this season as he missed the cut in the following two starts. After his top-5, Duncan was in prime position to be one of those young guys who break through during fall, but that obviously didn't happen.
Danny Lee
As he proved last year and previous years for that matter, Lee is a very streaky golfer and if he's not at the top of his game, there's no reason to take him. Lee started the season well with a top-10 at the CIMB Classic, but he posted a T71 in his most recent start. His track record here is a little disturbing as well as he's pulled a WD in two of his four starts here. Perhaps he's not fully invested in golf when he visits Mexico.
Nick Watney
Watney has a lot going against him this week that likely will be too much to overcome. Let's start with his track record here, which is limited, but he missed the cut in his only start. Next, he's coming off a missed cut last week at the Shriners, but it wasn't just a missed cut, it was a missed cut with the worst two-round score in the field.
D.A. Points
Two – it's not the number of starts Points has made this fall, nor the number of cuts made, rather it's the number of FedEx points he has this season through three events. In case you are unfamiliar with how points are doled out, two points in three events is just about as bad as one can do. For the record, two missed cuts and a 78th-place finish is how you rack up two points in three events.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Last week: Kevin Streelman (67) - $14,008; Season - $1,158,725
This week: Graeme McDowell - As mentioned, McDowell is not a guy I would normally use, or think of for that matter, during fall, but he's becoming irrelevant at the majors and there just aren't many spots to use him during spring/summer. He showed good form last week and hopefully that carries over to this week.
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Kevin Streelman - (67); Streak - 2
This week: Graeme McDowell - I wanted to find someone with a longer history at this event, but there simply isn't anyone with a long record of success here, it's mostly hit or miss for most of these golfers. That said, McDowell has made the cut in all three starts here and is coming off a top-10 last week, so his game is where it needs to be.
