This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
The PGA Tour heads to that Mecca of golf known as Detroit this week as we begin the stretch toward the final major of the year. In all seriousness, while Detroit isn't the first city to come to mind when you think of golf, Michigan has a reputation as a fairly "golf-crazy" state. Expect some decent crowds this week.
As for the course, we don't have much to go on, other than how the course "should" play. I've never been fond of predicting how golfers will play based on the course alone, unless there's an obvious theme, like say, Bethpage, where you have to be a bomber. There will certainly be opinions on what type of golfer should succeed on this course, but in the end, it will come down to what it usually comes down to — who's playing best. We'll lean heavily on current form this week as it's pretty much all we have.
This week: Rocket Mortgage Classic – Detroit Golf Club, Detroit
Last Year: none
FAVORITES
Dustin Johnson (6-1)
There's not a lot of high-end firepower in the field this week, which is why Johnson is at a paltry 6-1. No doubt he's the best player in the field, and it's not even close, but this is a new venue and we just don't know if it will suit DJ's eye. While he's an obvious "must-start" in all league formats, I wouldn't pull the trigger on him in OAD formats, and I probably wouldn't
The PGA Tour heads to that Mecca of golf known as Detroit this week as we begin the stretch toward the final major of the year. In all seriousness, while Detroit isn't the first city to come to mind when you think of golf, Michigan has a reputation as a fairly "golf-crazy" state. Expect some decent crowds this week.
As for the course, we don't have much to go on, other than how the course "should" play. I've never been fond of predicting how golfers will play based on the course alone, unless there's an obvious theme, like say, Bethpage, where you have to be a bomber. There will certainly be opinions on what type of golfer should succeed on this course, but in the end, it will come down to what it usually comes down to — who's playing best. We'll lean heavily on current form this week as it's pretty much all we have.
This week: Rocket Mortgage Classic – Detroit Golf Club, Detroit
Last Year: none
FAVORITES
Dustin Johnson (6-1)
There's not a lot of high-end firepower in the field this week, which is why Johnson is at a paltry 6-1. No doubt he's the best player in the field, and it's not even close, but this is a new venue and we just don't know if it will suit DJ's eye. While he's an obvious "must-start" in all league formats, I wouldn't pull the trigger on him in OAD formats, and I probably wouldn't bet on him at this price.
Rickie Fowler (10-1)
It makes perfect sense that Fowler is the second favorite this week, after all, he's the first person that comes to mind when you think of Rocket Mortgage. Is he a good play, though? His last four starts have resulted in just one top-20, which makes his 10-1 odds a little steep this week. With a new course in play, I expect someone from off the radar to win this week, which means it's probably best to look elsewhere. Save Fowler for a spot during the FedEx playoffs.
Gary Woodland (12-1)
It's amazing what a major championship will due to one's odds. Woodland has been a classic "20-1" guy for a while now, but with his impressive win at the U.S. Open, he's been bumped to "favorite" status. We'll see if it's warranted, but my guess is that he might struggle for a few weeks as he adjusts to his new status as major champion.
MID-TIER GOLFERS
Chez Reavie (20-1)
While Woodland is adjusting to life as a major winner, Reavie is readjusting to life as a PGA Tour winner. It's been a while, but Reavie finally broke through for another victory on the PGA Tour last week. His win didn't come out of nowhere, however, as he had shown signs of a breakthrough just a week prior at the U.S. Open. There's no doubt that his form is strong, but will his win last week cause him to lose focus? Reavie seems to be unflappable and should handle his recent success in stride.
Billy Horschel (30-1)
Horschel is on the cusp of breaking through again, but he's far enough off the radar that there's still plenty of value in OAD formats. Horschel hasn't made a ton of waves with his recent play, but he's definitely trending the right direction with four top-25s in his last five starts.
Joaquin Niemann (40-1)
I would prefer a little longer odds for a golfer who has done next to nothing this season, but at 40-1, Niemann has plenty of value. Niemann has not had a strong season, but we all saw what he was capable of last season when he got on a roll. And after last week's T5, he just might be rounding into form. It takes these guys a little time to adjust to life on the PGA Tour, especially those from other countries, so perhaps he's finally starting to settle in.
LONGSHOTS
Kevin Tway (50-1)
It feels like an eternity since Tway's season-opening win last October and that's largely due to his play during 2019, but it looks like he might be on the way back after a top-5 last week at the Travelers. Tway went through a really tough stretch earlier this year when he missed six consecutive cuts, but he's made the cut in his last seven starts and might be ready to contend for another title this week.
Brian Harman (50-1)
Remember this guy? He was lights out in 2017 and was pretty good in 2018 as well. As for 2019? Well, it hasn't been the greatest year for Harman, but he's still inside the top 125. More important, though, he seems to be trending in the right direction heading into this week. Harman has made the cut in his last four starts and is coming off a T8 at the Travelers last week. I know, it's not much, but we are talking about long shots.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Highly Owned Pick: Chez Reavie – It's tough to guess who will be highly owned, as Johnson likely has been used by just about everyone in OAD formats, as has Fowler. With the new venue, I'm not expecting high ownership for any elite golfers, which leaves mid-tier golfers like Reavie as the most likely candidates for high ownership. Although there's definitely a feeling that you missed the boat with Reavie, I expect him to perform well this week, though a win is obviously highly unlikely.
Moderately Owned Pick: Billy Horschel – With his recent play, I expect some people to be on Horschel. He won't be near the top of the ownership ranks this week, but he's played well enough to catch the eye of some, including myself. Horschel feels like a safe play with good upside this week and should provide a chance to gain on the leaders in your pool.
Lightly Owned Pick: Joaquin Niemann – It it will be tough to pull the trigger on Niemann in OAD formats if you've followed him closely this season, but if he's starting to get comfortable, this pick could have a lot of upside. He'll definitely be under the radar because of his play for most of the 2019 season, but he has the upside to justify a selection this week.
Buyer Beware: Gary Woodland – Perhaps Woodland's win at the U.S. Open will catapult him into a different stratosphere, but if he's like most first-time major winners, he's in for a bit of an adjustment period. Woodland certainly has the tools to succeed here, but I can't imagine his state of mind will be where it needs to be this soon after such a big win.
Last Week: Jordan Spieth (MC) – $0; Season - $6,503,747
This Week: Billy Horschel – This week is not going to be easy, no matter how you look at it. There are several mid-tier golfers who look appealing, but none looks like a great option. Such is often the case when we have a new track in play, but I'm fairly confident that Horschel will represent well. He's lacked upside recently, but he's been consistently making cuts and finishing fairly well on the weekend. If nothing else, he should get you a decent check.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Chez Reavie ($10,900)/Billy Horschel ($10,400)/Hank Lebioda ($8,000)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Paul Casey - (T5); Streak - 2
This week: Billy Horschel - This is never an easy spot to make a Survivor pick. This a new event, with no cache at the moment and a new course as well. We have no idea if the big names will be here mentally or even if their games will align with the course. All you can do is go with a golfer who has played consistently well lately and Horschel fits that bill. Horschel has missed one cut this season.
