PGA Tour Stats Review: Sony Open

Justin Thomas' impressive victory at the SBS Tournament of Champions kicked off the 2017 portion of the 2016-2017 PGA Tour season and he did it in impressive statistical fashion. Take this primer from the ShotLink folks as your way to kickoff this latest stats thread:

Justin Has Touch, Too

Everyone loves to talk about Justin Thomas' driver – and how far he hits it for being 145 pounds – and rightly so. But that second shot at 17 on Sunday to three feet three inches was more in the touch/finesse realm that gets mentioned with him sometimes. Take these ShotLink stats:

Thomas: Impressive ShotLink Stats From His Kapalua Win https://t.co/lW4Fx83AFApic.twitter.com/Yq8xC1MN1G

— Geoff Shackelford (@GeoffShac) January 9, 2017

He's in the field again this week and one to watch, and at this year's majors, too.

Jordan's Strong Sunday

Jordan Spieth made 26 birdies around Kapalua (first in the field) – he made a bunch of bogeys or worse though, to take him out of contention for a win – and got one of the more epic backdoor top-3 finishes you'll ever seen. I want to point you to some interesting stats from the Sunday 65: he gained 6.125 strokes on the field, 2.059 on the greens (predictable) and 4.066 from tee to green. That latter number is important as his ball-striking seemed that little bit more off in 2016 than it was in his epic 2015. Waialae Country Club this week is right up his game's alley, (more on that below), and it's why we recommend him this week. Sunday showed some really good signs.

The Stat: Strokes Gained – Tee to Green

Waialae Country Club is a tight, tree-lined golf course where accuracy and greens in regulation are a premium. The best stat that covers that is strokes gained – tee to green. Here are the leaders both from this season and last season in the field this week:

2017 (minimum double digit rounds played):

Anirban Lahiri - 2.211 strokes gained on the field per round
Paul Casey - 2.201
Scott Piercy - 1.872

2016:

Hideki Matsuyama - 1.315
Webb Simpson - 1.149
Justin Rose - 1.325
Gary Woodland - 1.097

Rose withdrew in his last start (the Hero World Challenge in December) due to ongoing back problems and until he shows consistent health I do not recommend him.
Now with the caveat that a lot of these guys haven't played since last year, I really like Casey, Matsuyama and Woodland this week. Matsuyama we covered last week – he had won four of his last five events entering the Tournament of Champions and finished a mere second to Thomas. He ranked fifth in strokes gained – off the tee, first in around the green and second in tee to green.

Casey did everything but win a PGA Tour event last season, playing especially consistent golf down the stretch, racking up two seconds and seven top-10 finishes. He then opened up this season with a T3 at the Safeway Open. For 2015-2016 he was seventh in tee to green including being 36th in driving accuracy and second in greens in regulation. This week is made for him. Look for him to contend.

Woodland meanwhile also almost sniffed victory, this time in the 2016-2017 season at Mayakoba where he finished second. He also finished second in Reno-Tahoe last year. The long-ball hitter was 23rd in greens in regulation last season, a good stat to watch out for this week and the reason we are picking him.

The Field

The field includes Jimmy Walker, Bryson DeChambeau, David Toms, defending champion Fabian Gomez, Jerry Kelly, Zach Johnson, Jason Dufner, Russell Knox, Billy Horschel, Brandt Snedeker, Tony Finau, Mackenzie Hughes, Smylie Kaufman, Wesley Bryan and Cameron Smith.

Keep an eye on Kelly this week. He just turned 50 yet nearly won the Shark Shootout in the offseason besides Steve Stricker and is an utter ballstriking machine, perfect for this golf course. Last season he had two top-10s, five top-25s, and was third in driving accuracy and 33rd in strokes gained – approach to the green. I'd start him this week.

The Weather

The weather is perfect, with partly cloudy skies, light winds, and temperatures in the mid-80s.