The Open Championship Betting Preview
The fourth and final major championship of 2025 is upon us as we set our attention on the 153rd Open Championship at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland. Host of the 2019 Open won by Shane Lowry in his home country by six shots, he and countryman Rory McIlroy (15-2 odds) will have the home support and are one of the big storylines heading in. Scottie Scheffer headlines as the tournament favorite (9-2 odds) in his quest to become the Champion Golfer of the Year for the first time, and is part of a diverse field that includes 18 LIV golfers and each of the top-15 players on the DP World Tour standings. Last year, Xander Schauffele (13-1) won his second major of the year at Royal Troon by two strokes over Justin Rose and Billy Horschel.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:00 AM ET Wednesday.
Course Overview
Par 71, 7,381 yards
These are the average rankings of Open Championship winners since 2022:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 19.7
- SG: Approach: 18.3
- SG: Around-the-Green: 20.0
- SG: Putting: 5.7
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 11.3
- Driving Distance: 49.0
- Driving Accuracy: 11.3
The lone venue part of the Open Championship rotation outside of Great Britain, Royal Portrush is hosting for just the third time in the event's history. A traditional links course with no trees in play that is alongside the coast of the North Atlantic Ocean, the course provides scoring opportunities but will also punish poor shots. Pot bunkers that are in some fairways provide a significant penalty and the fescue rough gets much thicker the more offline you are to punish tee shots that are big misses.
Looking at the stats above, we only have strokes gained data from the last three Open Championships, but we can see that accuracy is at much more of a premium than distance which is a contrast from last week at The Renaissance Club. Looking back at 2019, Lowry dominated with his iron play and the leaderboard was filled with strong approach players, so that will be a key factor this week. A main reason of that is that the greens here are much smaller than other links courses, requiring precision. We often see the weather play a role at this major, and it looks like those going off Thursday morning/Friday afternoon are going to get the better end of the wave advantage. Overall, I'm looking at accurate drivers, good approach players, players that have shown success at The Open/links courses and bogey avoiders.
Claret Juggernauts
The following golfers have the lowest scoring average at The Open Championship over the last four years:
- Jon Rahm: 69.4
- Xander Schauffele: 69.5
- Jordan Spieth: 69.8
- Brian Harman: 69.8
- Cameron Young: 69.8
One of two major titles that has yet to allude Rahm, he's been a consistent player at the event with three top-10s since 2021, although he's yet to truly be in contention. He's coming off a runner-up finish at Valderrama last week and hasn't finished outside the top-15 across 10 LIV events and three majors this year. One of the past champions on this list is Harman, who pulled off one of the more shocking upsets in his dominating 2023 victory. That's one of three top-20s since 2021 at the event for Harman, who has had an inconsistent year but does have three top-10s since April and is one of the more accurate drivers in the field. At 130-1 odds, he'd be a surprise winner once again and is probably better suited for placement bets.
Approach Artists
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes on approach across their last 20 rounds:
- Viktor Hovland: 1.55
- Scottie Scheffler: 1.50
- Shane Lowry: 1.35
- Akshay Bhatia: 1.09
- Daniel Berger: 0.94
It's not often that we see someone above Scheffler on a statistical list, which goes to show how dialed in Hovland has been with his iron play as of late. That helped lead to a third place finish at Oakmont, and he posted three rounds of 67 or better last week to finish T11. Hovland has also had success at The Open with three top-15s across four appearances. Meanwhile, Lowry will look to defend his title, and he held the 36-hole lead at Royal Troon last year before stumbling a bit to finish solo sixth. His iron play has been in excellent form all season, but recent struggles with his short game have hindered his results. Lowry is tied for the 10th choice on the board at 40-1 odds.
The Open Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Bryson DeChambeau (22-1)
The sentiment is that DeChambeau doesn't suit links golf well, but when you drive it long and straight and are strong across the board, I find that notion to be a false narrative. He ranked third in SG: Tee-to-Green at St. Andrews in 2022. I'll gladly take the discounted odds.
Collin Morikawa (35-1)
Morikawa's first week with caddie Billy Foster didn't go as planned, but he had his worst tournament of the year with his short game and Royal Portrush will fit his strengths of hitting fairways and iron play. The former Open Champion is second in SG: Tee-to-Green this year.
Russell Henley (65-1)
These are some long odds for a guy that was just one-shot back through 54 holes last year and is also coming off results of T5-T10-T2 across his last three tournaments which includes two signature events sandwiched in between a major. I'm baffled by these odds.
The Open Championship Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Patrick Reed (5-1)
A strong showing in Northern Ireland would go a long way in Reed's quest to make the Ryder Cup Team. He won LIV Dallas at the end of June and has a top-5 in a major this year. Reed finished 10th at Royal Portrush in 2019 as well.
Marco Penge (15-2)
The 27-year-old has had a breakthrough season on the DP World Tour, where he sits third in the season-long standings. Penge held his nerve well in the final group Sunday, finishing T2 at The Renaissance Club. I like him at these odds to keep the momentum rolling.
Kevin Yu (9-1)
Yu has been trending in an upward direction since May, posting a pair of top-5s, and he was in contention at the Scottish Open until a final round 73 dropped him to T34. He has a great combination of length and accuracy off the tee to go along with solid iron play.
The Open Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Ben Griffin (-120) over Hideki Matsuyama
A battle between two players trending in opposite directions. Griffin finally had a poor showing in his last start after playing for a 10th time in 11 weeks but previously had six straight top-15s. He doesn't have much links experience but when you do everything well, there's little reason to think he can't play well here. This has historically been Matsuyama's worst of the four majors, and he has just one top-25 across his last six starts.
Keegan Bradley (-105) over Adam Scott
It's the year of Keegan, isn't it? In comparing these two players, Bradley just does everything better and we get him as a slight underdog. He's more accurate off the tee and separates himself with a much improved short game. With nine top-20s in 16 events, his consistency makes him a great matchups target compared to Scott who has only four such results this year.
New to golf betting? Check out the best golf betting promos to find the sportsbook that's right for you, featuring the top sign-up bonuses.
