Weekly PGA Preview: Farmers Insurance Open

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

Farmers Insurance Open

Torrey Pines South Course, Torrey Pines North Course
San Diego, CA

The PGA Tour heads to San Diego for the latest edition of the Farmers Insurance Open.

I mentioned this past week that we got off to a good start with a playoff in just the third event of the season and this past week showed some promise with a big name in the mix the entire way and a somewhat close finish, but the reality of the situation is that the PGA Tour needs its best players to simply start showing up. 

Scottie Scheffler, arguably the tour's biggest draw at the moment, is still on the shelf due to a self-inflicted would over the holidays. Xander Schauffele withdrew from the American Express this past week and is also out of the Farmers this week due to a ribs injury that dates back to late 2024. Collin Morikawa is the latest to bail as he's also out of this week's event. Rory McIlroy hasn't been seen yet this year on the PGA Tour, but that's not all that uncommon in this part of the schedule, but it certainly doesn't help when all the other big names are absent. My guess is that this is just a bump in the road and we'll look back in a couple months and wonder why we were ever nervous, but if it's not, if Scheffler's injury lingers and Schauffele's ribs issue is a bigger deal than we thought, then we could be in for a very rough stretch on the PGA Tour. 

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 4:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Matthieu Pavon shot a final round 69 on his way to one-stroke victory over Nicolai Hojgaard. 

FAVORITES

Ludvig Aberg (9-1) 

It's interesting that Aberg is the clear favorite this week. Not because he's not favorite material, but because there is someone else in the field that should probably start as the favorite, but we'll get to that in a bit. As for Aberg, he started the season well with a top-5 at the Sentry and he played well here in his only previous start this past year with a top-10. The question about Aberg is, where is his ceiling? Is he a guy that can run off multiple wins in a short span? With Scheffler and Schauffele on the bench, we might find out.                                                                             

Hideki Matsuyama (11-1)

Matsuyama should be favored this week. That's not to say he's going to win or that he'll do better than Aberg, but I think he should start the week on top. Matsuyama already has a win this year and he has much more experience at Torrey Pines than Aberg. Matsuyama's track record here is a bit scattered, but he's finished inside the top-15 in four of his past eight starts here and he's missed the cut just two times in 11 starts. If his game is on, he's going to be in contention.  

Sungjae Im (18-1)

Im's placement as the clear third favorite is a little interesting as he's coming off a missed cut last week at The American Express and there are some good options just behind him. Im started the season well with a T3 at The Sentry, and his track record at Torrey Pines is pretty good though, which might be why he has the edge of the rest of the field. Im has finished inside the top-6 in two of his past three starts here.     

THE NEXT TIER

Will Zalatoris (22-1)

It's easy to forget how good Zalatoris was just a couple years ago because we haven't seen that guy for a while, but at just 28 years old, we shouldn't be giving up on him as an elite-level golfer on the PGA Tour. Zalatoris is off to a good start this season with a couple of cashes in the $160k range, but his sights are obviously set a bit higher. He played well at the American Express this past week but faded in the final round. Perhaps his game is getting close to where it needs to be to win again. His track record here is solid, with three top-15s in his past four starts here, including a runner-up in 2022.                                                        

Tony Finau (22-1)

A lot to consider this week for Finau, especially in OAD formats, but for now let's focus on his potential to win this week. Finau is coming off a knee injury, but he's played seven rounds already this season and most of them have been good. He finished T15 at the Sentry and was looking good this past week at the American Express until a third round 74 derailed his chances. His track record here is very good, with six top-10s in 10 starts, including a runner-up in 2021. 

Keegan Bradley (22-1) 

Bradley is in the midst of quite the second act in his PGA Tour career. He started his career on a high-note, winning three times in his first two seasons, including a major, but then a lull hit that lasted several years. He's since pulled out of that and now appears to be better than ever. His track record here is all over the place, but when he's on, he's a threat. Bradley finished runner-up here in 2023 and posted top-5s in 2017 and 2018. He started the season well at the Sentry with a T6, so it looks like his form is fine.                                                                                                                 

LONG SHOTS

Aaron Rai (60-1)            

Will Rai's ascension continue this season, or does he flatten out a bit? Rai has improved in each of his first three seasons on the PGA Tour, but in order to continue that trend this season, he'll really have to up his game. Rai started the season with a T15 at the Sentry, so we know his form should be pretty good entering this event, and his track record here indicates that he's capable of making a run. Though his track record is a bit scattered, he did post a T6 here in his first start in 2022.     

Daniel Berger (80-1)     

I think Berger will get back into the winner's circle this season, it's just a matter of when. If his odds continue to fall in this range, you could place a win bet on him every week and still make a nice profit if he won just once. It's been a long road back from injury for Berger, but month by month he's shown improvement, and he's not that far removed from being an elite player on this tour. His track record here is not great, but his game is trending in the right direction.           

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Tony Finau - It's rare that the most popular player in this format does not come from the group of favorites, but OAD players love them some course history and Finau has that at Torrey Pines. I also mentioned there are a lot of variables in play for Finau this week and one of them is if you should use him at a non-signature event. Speaking of which, the Tour is likely to be back at Torrey Pines for the Genesis Invitational next month, which is a signature event, so perhaps Finau would be a better pick that week.                                                 

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Will Zalatoris - Zalatoris has a lot going for him at the Farmers Insurance Open, his form is good, and he's got a good track record here, but there's still a trust factor for many OAD players when it comes to picking Zalatoris. Three years ago, there was no problem trusting Zalatoris, but he's been working his way back from injury and the one thing that's been missing is consistency. With that said, I think he's turning a corner, and it won't be too long before that consistency returns.

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Keegan Bradley - With a track record like Bradley has, he'd normally be a much more popular play, but between Finau, Zalatoris and a guy we've yet to mention, just about everyone outside of those three should be lightly owned. Bradley has the upside to win any given week, so if you can get him when almost everyone else is on another player, you might just want to go that route. 

Buyer Beware: Max Greyserman - Greyserman is off to a good start this season and he played well this past week, which is why he's lumped in with some good players at 25-1 this week, but there are a lot of golfers in the field this week that have a great track records at Torrey Pines and Greyserman is not one of them. In his only start at this event, Greyserman missed the cut. He's young and he'll continue to get better, but this is not the week to be on Greyserman. 

This Week: Keegan Bradley - There are so many good options this week, it was extremely difficult whittling it down to one. Here's the thing though, whoever you don't use this week, you can use at the Genesis next month. In my mind you have four options this week: Finau, Bradley, Zalatoris and Jason Day. So which of the four has the least amount of value either back here next month or down the stretch in general. It's not an easy call at all, but I'm siding with Bradley as I think his best play will come early in the season as his Ryder Cup duties start to pull his attention away a bit later in the year.                                                                         

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Jason Day ($11,200)
Middle Range: Taylor Pendrith ($10,500)
Lower Range: Frankie Capan III ($8,500)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Jason Day - Like this past week with Hadwin, there wasn't a great spot to expand on Day in the above sections, but I had to make mention of him somewhere. Day played well this past week at the American Express and his track record here is impressive, which makes him a good pick in all formats, but he'll be a little too popular for me in the OAD format. I'll him here though as his form is right where it needs to be. His track record here is a little more scattered than I'd like for a Survivor pick, but his form should carry him to the weekend at minimum. 

Previous Results