Weekly PGA Preview: WM Phoenix Open

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

WM Phoenix Open

TPC Scottsdale
Scottsdale, AZ

The PGA Tour heads to Scottsdale for another rowdy WM Phoenix Open. Well maybe not as rowdy as year's past if the PGA Tour has its way. 

Well that was quite the start to the signature season. Just this past week I mentioned how the PGA Tour was off to a rough start, but just one week into having almost all the best players back in action and we get a Rory run away. Sure, a little more drama would have been nice, but there's certainly something about one of the greats putting it in overdrive and just pulling away from the field. 

Speaking of that, is there any other golfer out there, aside from Scheffler of course, that's as good as McIlroy when he gets momentum late in an event? It's almost like he's on a hill, and if he makes it to the top, he glides down the rest of the way. Often times over the past decade, especially at majors, he's failed to get to that point where he can pour it on, but that wasn't the case this past Sunday. With plenty of talent on his tails, he found his game and once he took a two-stroke lead, there was no looking bad. 

After his win, the conversation predictably moved to his chances at the majors this year and rightfully so as I have to assume that McIlroy cares more about winning another major at this point compared to the weekly grind. As for his chances? It's hard to say, if the guy that showed up on Sunday makes an appearance at any of the four majors, then yeah, he's got a great shot at number five. One thing to consider, however, is Scottie Scheffler won't have any rust come April and Xander Schauffele will be back in the mix as well (hopefully), so can Rory do what he's never done before and win a major when those two guys are in the field? 

Okay, that's enough about the majors, this week we're back to Scottsdale for the biggest party on tour and guess who's in the field? Two-time Phoenix Open winner Scottie Scheffler! This one should be fun

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 7:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Nick Taylor shot a final round 65 on his way to playoff victory over Charley Hoffman. 

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (14-5) 

And we've finally done it. The lowest odds to win since Tiger Woods was dominating the PGA Tour. If you know me, you know that I hate to even consider anything less than 10-1 on a win ticket, so you can imagine what I think of something less than 3-1, but here's the thing, I don't think this number is crazy this week. Scheffler is a two-time winner here, and he finished T3 here this past year. He's got this course figured out, so the only question is form and if you watched this past week, you know that he's close. Yes, his first event in over two months, off of a hand injury and he's already almost back to top form. Throw in a field that's lacking a lot of high-end talent and you have the makings of a win for Scheffler.                                                                              

Justin Thomas (12-1)

Pretty good odds for the second favorite this week. Thomas is off to a great start this season and his track record here is pretty strong as well. He struggled at this event early, but over the past seven years, he's been very good. Thomas has seven top-20s in his past seven starts here, which includes two top-3s and a solo-4th. Thomas finished 4th and T8 the two years that Scheffler won this event and he's only bested Scheffler at this event once in five starts, so while Thomas is likely to play well this week, a win might be too much to ask knowing that he's struggle to beat the guy that usually ends up near the top of the leader board here.         

Hideki Matsuyama (16-1)

There was a time when Matsuyama was an auto-pick here. You didn't even try to find another player, you just took Hideki, but ever since he was forced to withdraw from the event in 2018, he hasn't been the same player here. Matsuyama's first four starts here looked like this: T4, T2, win, and win. Then came the WD in 2018 and he's only cracked the top-10 once in the past six years. Don't get me wrong, he hasn't played poorly here, he's made the top-30 in all but one of those six starts, but he hasn't had that extra gear that he had early in his career. Here's the thing though, Matsuyama enters this Phoenix Open in the best form we've seen in a while, so does he recapture that magic? At this price, he's certainly worth a look.      

THE NEXT TIER

Sam Burns (25-1)

It's going to take a lot to win if Scheffler is playing well, so we should be looking for guys that know how to win and Burns is certainly one of them. Burns did not win this past year, but he scooped up six wins from 2021-2023. His form is pretty good right now as he's landed in the top-25 in all three starts this season and his track record at this event is pretty solid with a T3 and a T6 in his two most recent starts in Scottsdale.                     

Tom Kim (33-1)

Everyone seems to be waiting for the floodgates to open for Kim and while we've seen glimpses of his ceiling, I don't think we've seen the best of him yet. With all the success that he's had, it's easy to forget that he's still just 22 years-old. Scottie Scheffler was still two years away from PGA Tour membership and four years away from his first PGA Tour win at the age of 22. Kim is way ahead of the game at this point, so if it takes a little longer to become the golfer we all think he can be, then so be it. Kim's form looks good entering this week as he finished in the top-10 at Pebble, and while his track record here is lacking, he's only played this event twice, and as you can imagine, sometimes it takes a little time to get used to this event.    

Sahith Theegala (45-1)

I was a little surprised to see Theegala with odds this high, but his current form isn't great, so it makes a little more sense. Theegala, however, has shown his ability over the past two seasons, so I don't think he'll be getting odds like this much longer. Theegala has four starts to his credit this season and he's yet to crack the top-30, but on the bright side, he hasn't missed a cut yet. That part is not great, but his track record here is solid, with two top-5s in three starts. This looks like a spot where Theegala can get back on track. Can he win this week? Of course, we see it all the time, the guy with no momentum coming into the week suddenly finds his game and wins, it does happen, just not that often.                      

LONG SHOTS

Rasmus Hojgaard (55-1)           

Hojgaard has never won on the PGA Tour, but let's be honest, we all know it's just a matter of time for him. Yeah, it's probably too much to ask that he wins this early in the season and against the likes of Scheffler and JT, but heck, he hung in there this past week against the best of the best, so who's to say that he can't do it again this week and maybe find a little extra on the weekend to get him over the finish line?

Wyndham Clark (75-1)

I guess we're doing this again. I simply don't understand why Clark gets overlooked on the odds chart almost every week, but as long as he's down here, he's worth a look. Clark's track record here isn't great, and his form isn't where it needs to be right now to win, but form for a player like Clark can change in the middle of a round. What I'm looking at when trying to find options for winners is the golfer's high-end and we all know that Clark is capable of big things when he's on. The odds are certainly against him this week, but I'd rather place my money on a proven winner at 75-1 then a guy that has never won.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Sam Burns - The hard part this week is figuring out who the most used players will be. The proper way to go about in this format is to throw out the top-3, so no Scheffler, JT or Matsuyama. Those guys are too valuable to use this week, so that leaves us with the next tier, which is headed up by Burns. Burns is one of a few players beyond the top-3 that has a track record here and some good form coming in, so I imagine he'll be quite popular. 

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Sahith Theegala - If Theegala had better form coming into this week, he'd be the obvious choice in this format, but since he's struggled a bit, I think some OAD players will shy away. It's always tough to take a guy that hasn't shown his best form in a while but think of how many times you took a guy because he was on fire coming into the week and he flamed out. It works both ways, it's all about how you start the week and if Theegala starts well, then his middling play over the past couple months won't matter at all.                                                    

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Billy Horschel – Horschel has played this event a lot over the years and he only has two top-10s to his credit, which is why he'll likely get overlooked this week, but as we all know, when Horschel gets going, he's tough to beat and judging by this past week, Horschel might be at the start of a little run. Horschel finished in 9th-place this past week at the AT&T, but he did so by posting a final-round 66. If he carries that form into this week, he could be a factor.        

Buyer Beware: Sepp Straka – Straka is a on a roll right now and many, including myself, didn't think he'd be a factor this past week, but he proved me wrong.  The question is, can he keep it going? I have my doubts. Straka is a good player, but he's not this good. It will be hard to keep up his current level for yet another week, on a course where he's had little success over the years. Straka has played here three times, and his best finish was a solo-66th in 2022. 

This Week: Sahith Theegala – I'm a little weary of using Theegala without strong form coming in, but he's not that far off right now and I think a return to this venue will provide the spark that he needs to get going. Burns would be my second choice this week, but as I often do, I'm trying to stay away from the popular play. 

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Scottie Scheffler ($13,400)
Middle Range: Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,800)
Lower Range: Billy Horschel ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Billy Horschel – A lot of good options this week, but Horschel checks all the boxes. He's got the consistency here (11 cuts in 12 starts) and he's got the current form. I thought about using Matsuyama or JT, who have combined to miss three cuts in 21 starts, but I think they'll have more value down the road.                     

Previous Results