Weekly Preview: THE CJ CUP @ SHADOW CREEK

THE CJ CUP @ SHADOW CREEK

Shadow Creek Golf Course
Las Vegas, NV  

The PGA Tour remains in Vegas and does not head to South Korea, as the CJ CUP -- formerly played at Nine Bridges -- takes up a temporary residence at Shadow Creek Golf Course. Once again we have a loaded field, and if it's anything like this past week...well, I guess that won't matter much, as the unheralded Martin Laird somehow emerged on top. Seriously though, there are tons of big names in the field, names like Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, and Dustin Johnson, to list a few. While that figures to make the tournament more fun, the move stateside takes away just about all of our course history. With any luck, though, the trend of a big name winning this event will continue. Thomas won it last year and in 2017 and Koepka claimed victory in between. There's no logical reason why that pattern would hold on a new course, but a guy can dream, right? 

LAST YEAR

Justin Thomas shot a final-round 67 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Danny Lee.

FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson (9-1)

DJ was the hottest golfer on the planet about a month ago, but he failed to convert that momentum into his second major win at the U.S. Open. As I've said many times, though, you can't put too much stock into how someone performs at the U.S. Open because it's unlike anything else golfers see on Tour. Heck, did you see how easy the conditions were this past week? DJ will be fine, but I'm not sure I like the single-digit odds.

Jon Rahm (10-1)

Prior to Bryson DeChambeau taking over at the U.S. Open, all the hype surrounded DJ and Rahm -- and rightfully so. Rahm had his best season to date, with nearly $6 million in earnings and two victories. Rahm's momentum ran out at the U.S. Open as well, but now that he's back on an easier track, he should be fine. Considering the long layoff however, the odds might be a little thin to make a play here.

Justin Thomas (12-1)

Three of the four best players from this past season are atop the odds chart this week, which makes perfect sense. The only one missing is DeChambeau, who is not in the field. Thomas is coming off a great season in which he earned over $7 million and posted three wins and two runner-ups. Thomas closed this past season with a T2 at the TOUR Championship and a T8 at the U.S. Open.

THE NEXT TIER

Patrick Cantlay (18-1)

I'll admit, I'm a little concerned about Cantlay's sudden inability to close, but he's too good to continue on this path for much longer. The fact that he's in the mix is good for me...for now. Cantlay played well this past week, but couldn't seal the deal. He should be in contention again this week, and it will be on him to find another gear on Sunday.

Matthew Wolff (22-1)

Outside of DeChambeau, Wolff is the hottest player going right now. Wolff battled DeChambeau down the stretch at the U.S. Open and was again in the mix this past week at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. As I mentioned last week, he's quickly transforming from a hit-or-miss guy to an extremely consistent golfer.

Daniel Berger (33-1)

The unfortunate thing about the fall season is that we get these high-end golfers for only a couple weeks, so by the time we know if the momentum from the previous season carried over or not, they're done for the year. Luckily, this season there's a carrot at the end of the stick in the form of The Masters, so guys like Berger won't be disappearing after this week.

LONG SHOTS

Brendon Todd (50-1)

Todd started an incredible run right about this time last year, and what looked like simply a hot streak at the time turned into a solid season all the way through. We haven't seen Todd since the U.S. Open, when he posted a T25, and we don't know anything about his current form. Still, he got up for the fall season this past year, so it makes sense that he'd be ready to go again this time around.

Harris English (50-1)

Taking a guy off a missed cut? Yeah, it's not optimal, but two things: 1) the odds are long here, so there's a lot of value and 2) unlike a lot of these guys, English has a recent start under his belt. Sure, he played just two rounds, and his form wasn't great, but any rust that accumulated over the past few weeks is now gone.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Matthew Wolff - It's rare that such an easy decision comes to us in the fall, but here it is. Wolff is on fire right now, and there's no worry about using him too early, as he's not in the tip-top tier of golfers just yet. Yes, he's going to be very popular this week, but you don't want to get behind the pack this early in the season, so you may as well just use him.

Moderately-owned Pick: Patrick Cantlay - I wanted to leave this spot blank, as there won't be anyone outside of Wolff that is popular this week. It's tough to go with a big name this early in the season, and since there is no course history and little recent play, it's very difficult to use a big name this week. With that said, Cantlay is not so big that you'd be kicking yourself for burning him this early.

Lightly-owned Pick: Brendon Todd - With so many top-level golfers in the field it's going to be tough to go with a guy like Todd. But if you are trying to save players for the 2021 portion of the season, you'll have to use guys like Todd early on. He's a good zag from everyone that will zig with Wolff this week.

Buyer Beware: Xander Schauffele - This isn't to say that Schauffele is going to play poorly this week, but anytime the field is tough, people start picking this guy; and while he's played well recently, he hasn't won since January of 2019. Yes, he's going to win many more events, but maybe we need to dial back the expectations a little.

Last week: Matthew Wolff - (T2) - $623,000

Season Total: $710,591

This Week: Patrick Cantlay - I considered using Cantlay this past week, but fortunately I switched to Wolff and picked up a T2. I'm going with Cantlay here, as I no longer have Wolff at my disposal. Cantlay might have trouble closing, but odds are he'll be in the mix and pick up a nice chunk of change.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Matthew Wolff ($11,200)
Middle Range: Daniel Berger ($10,400)
Lower Range: Brendon Todd ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last week: Patrick Cantlay (T8) 

Streak: 3

This Week: Matthew Wolff - With no course history these Survivor picks are always a little dicey. With that in mind, I need to go with someone who has been playing well, and no one in the field is hotter than Wolff. Unrelated to anything, I like the symmetry of using Wolff in my OAD league this past week and going with Cantlay as my Survivor pick, and then flipping the two this time around.