Hutch's Hockey: Trade Deadline Appetizer Course

The initial draft of this week's piece, in my head, was going to discuss how quiet the trade market was right after the 4 Nations Face-Off. There were a bunch of big deals in the week or so before the break. Some thought the break would create an unofficial trade deadline, and that definitely seemed to be the case. 

For the first few days after the break, the market was limited to AHL deals and small moves that teams make to keep their depth stocked. It's not important in the fantasy arena. Of those deals, perhaps Grigori Denisenko will get a look with the Predators after they snagged him from the Golden Knights. Same thing with Ville Husso going to the Ducks -- it unjams the goalie pipeline for Detroit for the rest of this year while giving Anaheim a veteran option to pair with Lukas Dostal should John Gibson be on the move. 

The quiet stretch ended Saturday with three NHL-level deals, including one with massive implications in fantasy. That big one is the Seth Jones deal to Florida, though history may end up remembering it as the Spencer Knight trade if he finds his footing in Chicago. We'll start on a positive note here, which is Jones getting arguably the biggest situational upgrade we'll see over the next week. He's been a massive risk in fantasy with the Blackhawks, especially in formats that count plus-minus rating since he averaged over 24 minutes of ice time in each of his four seasons with the team. This is a case where less ice time will lead to better results. The Panthers already have minute-munchers in Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling. Dmitry Kulikov has also been pretty good in a shutdown role. This trade frees Jones up to do what he does best -- generate offense. I also envision him running the top power-play unit -- he's a more natural fit there than Ekblad. Jones' plus-minus will benefit from playing on a much stronger team, and he won't have to be the man on defense anymore. It's not just a rental either, as he's under contract for five more years.

 The impact of this trade will be felt much more in Chicago. For one, go look for Alex Vlasic on the waiver wire. He's about to inherit the top power-play unit -- one of the Blackhawks' few good elements this season. The Blackhawks are converting at 26.2 percent with the man advantage, making them a top-10 team in that regard thanks to the success of Connor Bedard, Teuvo Teravainen and Ryan Donato (who may end up getting traded as well). Vlasic has already ascended to top-pairing status, but his role will be bigger down the stretch, and he's got the potential to be a pillar of the Blackhawks' defense once they're out of the rebuild. 

The other ripple effect is in the Blackhawks' crease. I preface this with the fact that acquiring Knight means a trade of either Petr Mrazek or Arvid Soderblom is likely. Both Mrazek and Laurent Brossoit (knee) are under contract for next season, combining for a cap hit of $7.55 million. Knight adds a $4.5 million hit to the team. Brossoit is a tough read -- he's been recovering from surgery all season and doesn't seem likely to play in 2024-25, which could very well spell the end of his career. Mrazek's salary doesn't match his performance, so moving Soderblom makes the most sense, who is effectively displaced by Knight in the long run. Soderblom's also posted respectable ratios (3.02 GAA, .906 save percentage) in 29 appearances this season. He's 25 years old, while Knight is 23. I could see the case for moving Mrazek -- I just don't see a buyer this season since the Blackhawks are out of salary retention slots due to previous deals involving Mikko Rantanen and Jake McCabe, as well as the Jones trade. Knight will be given every chance to prove himself down the stretch, but the results are likely to be ugly behind a young and porous defense. 

In other moves, the Wild traded for Gustav Nyquist from the Predators. It's the second time in three years a deadline deal has seen Nyquist packing his bags for Minnesota -- it happened in 2022-23 as well. The winger has had an awful season with 21 points and a minus-20 rating over 57 appearances. From a roster composition standpoint, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Nyquist is fairly redundant for a team that already has Mats Zuccarello and Marcus Johansson in the fold. Still, this can only be an improvement for Nyquist's output since he'll be on a more talented team, though it comes at the cost of the chemistry he had with Filip Forsberg. 

There's also the swap between the Rangers and the Avalanche, which is unlikely to be a big deal in fantasy despite being a five-player trade. Ryan Lindgren and Jimmy Vesey, as well as prospect Hank Kempf, are off to Colorado, while Juuso Parssinen and Calvin de Haan head to New York. The NHL players in this deal largely replace each other, though the Avalanche clearly got the current best player in the deal in Lindgren. He'll be a top-four option by usage for the Avalanche, even if he slots in on the third pairing. He'll play a shutdown role and kill penalties, but his offense could get a boost if he gets a lot of minutes with the Avalanche's stars. Vesey is a bottom-six fill in with a little skill. If he works his way up the lineup, he could be a streaming option in fantasy. 

On the Rangers' side, this trade signals a pivot to 2025-26. De Haan is on an expiring contract, and Parssinen is a pending restricted free agent who will be on his third team this season. Parssinen had 25 points over 45 games as a rookie in 2022-23, but he's picked up just 23 points over 81 contests across the last two seasons. Expect bottom-six minutes and production for the rest of the year, though the Rangers will likely give him a chance to play, especially if more forwards are shipped out. If he struggles, he'll likely be left unqualified in June, allowing him to test the free-agent market. 

These trades are just the tip of the iceberg. Consider this weekend's activity an appetizer before Friday's deadline, which figures to be a big one. Just look at the congestion on both bubbles. That doesn't even account for true Cup contenders wanting to stock up for a big playoff run. Sellers rejoice -- there are plenty of buyers looking to make moves. Not all fantasy leagues are still open for trading, but if they are, you want to be reactive as a buyer and proactive as a seller. Just remember, players on the move in the NHL occasionally take time to click with their new teams. Just because the deal looks good on paper doesn't mean it will work immediately, especially in the case of rentals and depth players. 

Instead, look to the waiver wire to fill the ice-time vacuums some of these deals create. Vlasic is a great example, but rarely will trades create a situation like that with an heir apparent so easily identifiable. Often, multiple players will get a chance to compete for new roles over the last quarter of the campaign. Figuring out who will step up is something for next week once the dust settles, but this week is a good time to look at which players have come out of the 4 Nations break refreshed and productive. 

Perhaps no player fits that description as well as Pavel Buchnevich. His point streak was at six games (two goals, seven assists), which started one game before the break began, though he was held off the scoresheet Sunday versus the Stars. He's a top-line player for a Blues team that refuses to get trampled on in the playoff race. Most importantly, Buchnevich has had better years, and he's still not at his peak scoring pace even after his recent surge. This is positive regression in action, and the 29-year-old is poised for a big stretch run. 

There was a belief that Matvei Michkov needed the 4 Nations break to regroup. He had just seven points over 19 contests between the start of January and the break, and he's responded with eight points over four games since play resumed. It's put the wind back in his sails in the Calder Trophy race, and it shows that Michkov has not hit the rookie wall. Sure, he'll need to figure out the rigors of a full season at some point, and there's little doubt that he'll get there. For now, enjoy what could be a strong finish to the campaign. 

I hesitated on recommending Boone Jenner right after his return from a shoulder injury that cost him the better part of four months. He's still looking for his first goal of the season, but seven assists in four games more than makes up for it. The 31-year-old has reclaimed a top-six role, and the Blue Jackets are still in the playoff race, so he's not just angling for next season. Jenner plays a heavy style that makes another injury a possibility, but he had reached 20 goals in each of the previous three seasons, so there is potential. Whether you need a boost in points, hits or shots, Jenner can be had in plenty of fantasy formats for free. 

I might be the conductor on the Jackson LaCombe hype train at this point, but he needs to be rostered in most fantasy leagues. He enters the upcoming week on a five-game point streak (two goals, four assists). He's had a few quiet stretches this season, but the Ducks are a low-end offense despite being on the edge of the playoff race. LaCombe was good enough for them to trade away Cam Fowler earlier in the year, and he's only gotten better since then. LaCombe is already a 30-point defenseman with a quarter of the season left, and he's added 110 shots on net, 88 blocked shots and a plus-4 rating. He is the real deal. 

Patrik Laine has all the tools to be a consistent contributor in fantasy, so it's frustrating that injuries and streaky play have taken the shine off of his name. He went into the 4 Nations Face-Off scoreless over eight games, but he's bounced back with two goals and four assists over four contests since returning from his time with Team Finland. Four of those six points have come on the power play. Some fantasy managers are a little leery regarding Laine. Don't make the same mistake -- you're not finding power-play production like this anywhere else on the waiver wire. 

Barrett Hayton has been back on the roller coaster this season. He started hot, then dropped off hard in November and December. January was better, but he slipped again heading into the 4 Nations break. Hayton has bounced back with five points over five games since Utah resumed play, albeit with a hat trick and two-point effort to go with three scoreless outings. I'm still optimistic -- Utah has a good power play, and Hayton's getting involved there, where he's earned four of those five points. As much as I like a sure thing, Hayton's a tempting high-risk, high-reward player. Utah has just two games this week, road matchups in Detroit and Chicago. There are some soft defenses ahead after that, so he's worth the gamble for a few weeks. 

Another piece of Utah's power play is the perennially underappreciated Nick Schmaltz. He's earned six points over five games since the break, with three of his five assists in that span coming on the power play. Schmaltz is a playmaker with little physicality, so he's certainly not for everyone. He'll likely miss the 20-goal mark for the first time in four years, but he's right on track to get back above 60 points if he stays healthy to close out the year. He's also earned 19 of his 47 points on the power play, and he could bounce back a little since he's shooting just 9.2 percent so far in 2024-25. His top-line spot alongside Clayton Keller and Logan Cooley has been as fruitful as ever. Schmaltz is a fine fantasy winger because he's steady and reliable on offense. 

Mason Lohrei is the next blueliner up for the Bruins' power play while Charlie McAvoy (shoulder) is on the mend. Defensive issues are present for Lohrei, but Boston's had a poor season and can't afford to be picky with where the offense comes from. The 24-year-old has five points, including three on the power play, over his last five games. Lohrei can burn you in plus-minus rating -- he's minus-16 on the year. He's also earned 13 of his 28 points with the man advantage. A near 40-point pace from a blueliner is more than fine by my standards. 

For a category specialist on defense, it's again Radko Gudas time if you're chasing hits. He's picked up one assist and 25 hits over five games since the break, while adding eight blocked shots and a plus-5 rating. Gudas is a little behind last year's scoring pace (18 points in 66 games), earning just 13 points over 58 appearances so far. However, he's on track for better hit and block totals, and he continues to defy the Ducks' somewhat leaky goaltending by maintaining a plus-6 rating so far. He hasn't gone negative in that category since 2015-16, so while Gudas really only stands out for his hits, he doesn't drag down many areas. 

So much attention is given to sophomore slumps that we don't often appreciate second-year players who go the other way. There are plenty who fit the bill this year, but Adam Fantilli has really caught my eye lately. He started the season fine with 15 points in 38 games as a middle-six center. Since the start of January, he's been a point-per-game player with 11 goals, 11 assists, 25 hits, 19 blocked shots and a plus-13 rating over 22 contests. There are factors in play here, namely Sean Monahan's wrist injury that is likely to keep him out for at least a couple more weeks. Still, don't discount Fantilli's play. He's put up two months worth of elite offense, mainly at even strength, without sacrificing any other aspect of his game. Fantilli is looking worth the price as the No. 3 overall pick from 2023, and he's got multi-category potential for the future. 

In goal, head coach Andre Tourignay has often gone with alternating goalies, but he hasn't hesitated to ride a hot hand this year. With a 2.32 GAA and a .907 save percentage over seven games since the start of February, Karel Vejmelka is certainly a hot hand, and it's earned him six starts out of nine contests overall in that span. Connor Ingram hasn't quite put it all together in 2024-25, and Utah is among the teams lingering in the playoff race out west, so it is important to stick with a winner. Vejmelka is a bit of a wild card in the wild-card race -- he's a pending unrestricted free agent, so Utah could lose him for nothing if the team elects to hold onto him at the trade deadline. He's worth a look in fantasy now, but if he's dealt to a contender, his playing time is almost guaranteed to drop -- no team that's in the hunt truly needs an uncontested No. 1 goalie, though many would benefit from finding a platoon partner for one of their current goalies. 

Elvis Merzlikins is in a very similar position for the Blue Jackets in the Eastern Conference, though he's under contract for two more years and Columbus is currently in a playoff spot. However, the Blue Jackets were not expected to be this competitive this soon, and Merzlikins is at a 2.97 GAA and an .897 save percentage, better than his numbers in the last two seasons but hardly world-beating. Merzlikins' term and $5.4 million cap hit will make him tougher to move. Since Columbus is playing with house money to a degree, he's more likely to stay put, though he's also more likely to slip up down the stretch. There are already some signs of trouble with his 3-3-1 record, 3.31 GAA and .900 save percentage since the start of February, but he's got the workload to help fantasy managers. 

The week ahead is one of the toughest to be a fantasy manager. It may not be as much of an issue this year -- there's been a lot of pre-deadline trading, so perhaps there won't be as much going down to the wire. Still, you're dealing with players on the move, changing roles, finding chemistry and adapting to new systems. On top of that, there's the travel aspect. Players that get dealt on a game-day can lead to a goose egg in your lineup, and immigration paperwork can put another wrinkle in things when switching between teams in Canada and in the United States. These are all challenges, but you should have enough resources available between news updates and waiver moves to fill out a competitive team even if your players get caught in the shuffle. 

As usual, next week will be the big annual trade deadline breakdown with comments on every deal at the NHL level and some AHL moves that could be noteworthy down the stretch. Generally, expect 20-30 trades on deadline day as well as another 20 or so in the days leading up to the final bell. If this ends up being a busy deadline, next week's piece will focus on the deals only, but if it's a bit slow, there may be some room for waiver-wire angles too. After this weekend's appetizer, it'll be interesting to see what gets to the plate for the main course.