Eight-plus weeks of action has left us sufficient data to assess NHL player projections. It probably doesn't need to be said that other factors should also be considered. While you may have a few favorites and/or a gut feeling about someone, the tangible indicators – such as trends, line combos and updates – provide a clearer path to fantasy success.
And now that you're completely confused, let's list some laced-up live wires to lift your lineups.
(Rostered rates as of Dec. 5)
Forwards
Tyler Toffoli, SJ (Yahoo: 43%): Toffoli is part of one of the league's most exciting lines alongside Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith and joining the pair on the Sharks' top power play. He's notched seven points and 14 shots in his last six games, highlighted by two goals, two assists and five pucks on net Monday versus Utah. A tough upcoming stretch of five straight road matchups awaits San Jose starting Friday, but this trio will be able to rack up some scoring. So there's no reason Toffoli should still be under 50 percent.
Josh Norris, BUF (Yahoo: 35%): Norris came into the season projected as Buffalo's 1C during all attacking situations. He then missed almost two months after suffering an upper-body injury on Opening Night before returning Monday and slotted right back into those prime placements, where he immediately picked up two goals on three shots to go with an assist. Norris hasn't had the greatest of luck staying healthy throughout his career, though is a must-add if he can keep producing and string together at least 10 consecutive appearances.
Ivan Barbashev, VGK (Yahoo: 34%): Not much in the way of power-play minutes for Barbashev, but I'm sure he won't complain about skating beside Jack Eichel at even-strength or the 22 points overall – nine of those goals. Regression seems inevitable for a 21.4 shooting percentage, yet that mark was 20.7 last year and has been at least 20 three other times. Barbashev holds additional value via 43 hits, though you're ultimately selecting him for his offensive qualities and star line-mate.
Jamie Benn, DAL (Yahoo: 26%): A collapsed lung during preseason forced Benn out for seven weeks. He's still being eased into the lineup nine games in (12:49 average), yet has already accumulated three goals, five assists, 11 shots and 19 hits. Benn also participates on Dallas's secondary man-advantage while currently on the right side of a five-on-five unit with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. Expect him to continue progressing as long as he doesn't encounter any setbacks. Just don't expect big numbers.
Ross Colton, COL (Yahoo: 20%): Colorado's second line has been hot the last couple outings. Gabriel Landeskog (49 percent) and Brock Nelson (42 percent) may be grabbing the headlines, but Colton's cumulative cross-category contributions can't be ignored. We're talking about 14 points, 63 shots, 70 hits and a plus-8 on a modest 13:26 per night. You're still getting decent value by taking either of the two aforementioned teammates, though Colton could be the steal you've been looking for.
Sean Couturier, PHI (Yahoo: 6%): Speaking of underappreciated bargains, all Couturier has done this season is deliver four goals and 12 assists – with six of those points coming from the last eight contests – in addition to 10 shots, 10 hits, six blocks and 70 faceoff wins (57.4 percent). He's also flanked by Matvei Michkov and Owen Tippett during even-strength while regularly registering 19-plus minute efforts. The only thing missing from Couturier's portfolio is power-play scoring, although all that other output should suffice.
Erik Haula, NSH (Yahoo: 3%): The Preds recently shuffled up their forward groups to spark their attack, and it seems to have worked, as they have a combined 19 goals over the last five matchups. Haula is now at five-on-five centering Filip Forsberg and Jonathan Marchessault, and doing well on the second man-advantage having already recorded six PPPs. Nashville usually doesn't yield many favorable fantasy targets up front, but Haula is someone who can provide solid stats and comes at a significant discount.
Oliver Kapanen, MON (Yahoo: 2%): Poolies are still sleeping on Kapanen despite the rave reviews and excellent returns (8G, 6A) for someone who hadn't previously played in the NHL. From finding the back of the net in four of his first seven appearances to potting another marker Wednesday (that was set up by Ivan Demidov) on a whopping 20:07, the 22-year-old is exceeding expectations. Kapanen still has ways to go in his development, but there's enough right now to take a chance on him.
Defensemen
Radko Gudas, ANH (Yahoo: 27%): While Gudas is 35 and taking on less ice time, he's still as physical as ever. In the two-plus weeks since returning from an 11-game absence, he's dished out 34 hits and blocked 20 shots. The Ducks don't really need Gudas for offensive contributions, as they're set from the rest of their blueliners, though his 18 pucks on net over the most recent stretch are encouraging (and slightly surprising) and could eventually lead to a couple goals going in.
Esa Lindell, DAL (Yahoo: 24%): Lindell had been logging major minutes even before Thomas Harley was sidelined in the middle of November. And the 25:21 average with a goal, four assists, 13 shots, 26 blocks and plus-10 represents a productive and well-balanced haul. Lindell's two helpers on Wednesday are probably an outlier based on recent output, but he still carries enough fantasy upside on a strong Dallas attack to deserve more coverage.
Matt Roy, WAS (Yahoo: 13%): It was quite the night Wednesday for Roy, as he went off for three assists, two shots and four blocks. Don't expect that offensive explosion to regularly happen, as he usually tops out in the mid-20 point range, though getting to skate next to Jakob Chychrun at even-strength can't hurt in enhancing those numbers. And even if the scoring drops off, Roy remains reliable elsewhere while holding down a lead shorthanded role.
Jordan Spence, OTT (Yahoo: 2%): When Spence was acquired from the Kings in June, it was assumed he'd get more chances with his new team (at least that's what I thought when I protected him in the RotoWire Staff Keeper Hockey League). He did notch three assists during his second game and another one next time out, yet that was surrounded by numerous healthy scratches. So it wasn't until November when Spence finally established full-time status and built chemistry alongside Thomas Chabot. Chabot's injury may have deprived Spence of a veteran partner, but it allowed the 24-year-old to earn some time on Ottawa's second power play. That hasn't resulted in any points, though he's bound to get some, as he's offensively gifted and gaining confidence.
Goaltenders
Carter Hart, VGK (Yahoo: 37%): Hart made his Vegas debut on Tuesday and earned the win over the Blackhawks by stopping 27 of 30 shots (with another three in the shootout). Akira Schmid has been decent handling most of the starts, as Adin Hill went on IR at the end of October (2.49 GAA, .896 save percentage across 11 appearances), but Hart will probably earn enough action behind a defense that's one of the best at limiting pucks on net and a fairly potent attack.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, BUF (Yahoo: 26%): Another week, another goalie rumored to be headed to the Oilers. Luukkonen endured his share of struggles the last few years on a consistently weak Buffalo back line, yet still covers a major workload and has posted a 2.30 GAA since Nov. 1 – including only one goal versus Carolina and Winnipeg. Colten Ellis has provided brief moments of excellence while Alex Lyon has fallen off following a hot start, leaving UPL as the No. 1 on a club whose offense has recently been boosted by the return of a few forwards.
Players to consider from past columns: Dylan Cozens, Leo Carlsson, Frank Nazar, Will Smith, Carter Verhaeghe, Cole Perfetti, Nick Schmaltz, Anze Kopitar, Kiefer Sherwood, Brock Nelson, Zach Benson, Jonathan Huberdeau, Adam Fantilli, Patrick Kane, Dawson Mercer, Chris Kreider, Troy Terry, Brock Boeser, Mats Zuccarello, William Eklund, Will Cuylle, Tyler Bertuzzi, Owen Tippett, Pavel Buchnevich, Alexis Lafreniere, Anton Lundell, Conor Garland, Jack Roslovic, Beckett Sennecke, Zachary Bolduc, Logan Stankoven, Claude Giroux, Marcus Johansson, Mackie Samoskevich, Evander Kane, Teuvo Teravainen, Jake DeBrusk, Braeden Bowman, Jordan Eberle, Jackson Blake, Dmitri Voronkov, Pavel Zacha, Jack Quinn, Josh Doan, Arseny Gritsyuk, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Matias Maccelli, Matthew Coronato, Ben Kindel, Ryan Leonard, Matthew Wood, Brock Faber, Mattias Ekholm, Brandt Clarke, Kris Letang, Travis Sanheim, Filip Hronek, Rasmus Andersson, Simon Nemec, Cam Fowler, K'Andre Miller, Jake McCabe, Artyom Levshunov, Hampus Lindholm, Darren Raddysh, Brent Burns, Olen Zellweger, John Klingberg, Philip Broberg, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Justin Faulk, Simon Edvinsson, Dmitry Orlov, Cam York, Nick Blankenburg, Nate Schmidt, Spencer Knight, Jesper Wallstedt, Jakub Dobes, Yaroslav Askarov, Jake Allen, Tristan Jarry, Cam Talbot, John Gibson, Dan Vladar, Casey DeSmith, David Rittich, Elvis Merzlikins, Akira Schmid
