The Waiver Wire: Second Half Predictions

The Waiver Wire – For the Week of January 25 – February 1

As the league breaks for the annual pond hockey matchup known as the All-Star Game, we'll take this opportunity to make a few predictions on who the big performers, maintainers, and losers are going to be for the back nine of this season.

Fantastic Second Half Performers

Anze Kopitar C, LAK – We were pessimistic about our outlook for him in early December, but since December 18th there have been few players in the league as consistently hot as this 27-year old. Since that day, he's amassed five goals and 18 assists for 23 points in 15 games. Important to note: 12 of those 23 points are power play markers, which are doubly important in many fantasy leagues. We're not sure how Anze got his groove back, but we're glad he did – his ownership levels were incredibly low just prior to his 5 point night against St. Louis, and those GMs who invested at his low are now being amply rewarded. His outlook for the second half of the season looks very bright; there's no reason why he shouldn't be able to hit 80 points this season, should he continue his recent incredible play. The only concern is whether he may re-aggravate his upper body injury through the yearly grind, but we doubt this is a significant issue.

Derek Stepan C, NYR – As we wrote last week, we're very high on Stepan right now, and we think everybody else will be in very short order. Since his return from injury, he's been on fire, and at the half way point, he's still above a point-per-game pace. We think the emergence of Rick Nash as a bona fide top-line scoring threat has given Stepan a respite from the top line heat that he was receiving from the other teams. Their need to readjust to cover one of the highest scoring wingers in the league has given Stepan more room to work his magic. If we're right with this assessment of why he's attained his success this year, the second half is likely to continue to be a success for the 25-year old. He's had a lingering upper body injury that he's been playing through, but hopefully, the time off at the All-Star break will allow whatever ails him some time to heal. Based on his current output, he should be able to hit 70 points by the end of the season with some ease.

Michael Hutchinson G, WPG – Everything should have gone very poorly for the Jets this year. In December, much of their defense corps was decimated from injuries: Toby Enstrom, Zach Bogosian, Jacob Trouba, and Mark Stuart – four of their top six, and three of their top four rearguards – were down for most of the month. Winnipeg had every reason to lose; instead, they managed to go 7-3-3 – and did so against many of the hardest teams in the league. Much of their success was a result of stellar goaltending from Hutchinson, who went 5-2 in that stretch with a 2.14 GAA / .927 SV%. His play has been so good from the outset of the year that he'll likely receive both a Calder and a Vezina nomination should his second half remain this stellar – and we have every reason to believe that it will.

Gustav Nyquist W, DET – Since the latter half of December, Nyquist has really found his rhythm for the year. That bodes really well for owning GMs: in his last 13 games, he has 17 points including five goals and six multi-point games. Playing on the wing of Henrik Zetterberg has really given the 25-year old's game the maturity and next-gear that he was looking for. Based on current production levels, and the almost guaranteed nature of Detroit making the playoffs for a record 24th consecutive season, Nyquist's second half numbers should be even better than his first. That would put him in the range of 80 points, a total that we're confident he's going to come close to hitting. He'll also nip at the bud of 40 goals, too, but we're less confident of him hitting that plateau just yet.

Solid Performers

Jakob Voracek W, PHI – We've been pessimists from the outset of the year with Voracek, and we're starting to see an ever-so-slight dip in his performance as the season continues. With 56 points in 48 games, there's no question he's having a phenomenal year, but we're just not sure that this level of performance can continue. If you break the season into quarters, his first was a nasty bit of business with 32 points in 23 games in October and November. The second half, we think, is more indicative of what to expect from here on out: 24 points in 25 games. That just-under-a-point-per-game pace would have him finish up the year with 34 additional points – good for 90 on the campaign. A fantastic year, but a second half that wasn't quite as great as the first – which made him look superhuman.

Mark Giordano D, CGY – What more can this guy do that he hasn't already done? We're looking at a defenseman who at the All-Star break that has almost a point-per-game, and is looking at possibly the highest scoring season for a blueliner since Nicklas Lidstrom hit 80 in 2005-2006. We're skeptical, however, that all the necessary variables will come together for Giordano the way they have in the first four months of the season. His scoring has trailed off significantly in December and January – scoring less in those two months combined than in the month of November. Still, Calgary is trying to hit a playoff spot for the first time since 2008-2009, and in order to do so, they'll need their Norris candidate defenseman playing at the level we all know he can. Given how amazing October and November were for him, we're not sure he can hit that level of rarified air again, but he'll still have a great second half, and should be able to set career highs for production.

Erik Karlsson D, OTT – Even though the Senators are having a dismal year, their franchise defenseman is having yet another career year. His 33 points in 46 games isn't exactly record setting for his production, he has been consistent month-over-month, recording almost identical point totals (9 in November, 8 for the others). We have no reason to doubt that he'll continue to do so for February, March, and April – putting his totals around 60 points. Consider if you will that the Sens are a non-playoff team, and have a rather benign offense in front of Karlsson, and you'll come to appreciate the level of talent that he continually puts on the ice game-in and game-out. He's one of the most talented blueliners in the game today, and should have a respectable second act to the season.

John Tavares C, NYI – The impact that his skill has had on the Island this year cannot be overstated: he's been directly involved in 31% of the goals for New York this season. His 45 points in 46 games has him sitting 12th in league scoring – a spot we think he'll slightly elevate in the coming months. The Islander offense is so potent, they sit second only to Tampa Bay in goals scored. Their 3.15 goals per game – should it continue – is fertile ground for any fantasy GM who owns one of their top six. Short of attaining a bona fide sniper winger, however, we're just not sure how much more Tavares can elevate his game for the rest of the season. As high as his totals are right now, we're not expecting them to go much higher. We think he'll set a career high-water mark for points and goals at 90 and 40, respectively, but it's not likely to net him either the Art Ross or the Richard. We don't think that owners of Tavares are going to complain, though.

Underperformers for the Second Half

Vladimir Tarasenko W, STL – After a fantastic start to the year where he held the scoring lead for quite some time, his last few months have seen a slowdown in both the production of his line mates, and the frequency of his goal scoring. It's hard to predict that a current top five point producer in the league is going to drop off, but we think the indications are there. His ice time over the last month has also dipped below his running seasonal average – not a good indicator in continued high-level performance. Tarasenko is an absolute bright light for the Blues, and likely going to be a long-term all-star for the franchise, but any belief that this was his year to set his sights on the Art Ross is far too lofty a goal for this 23-year old. He'll get there – just give him a few years to maintain that level of performance consistently.

Phil Kessel W, TOR – We think he said it best this week when asked at the All-Star Game: "It's like we have a jinx or something." The current iteration of the blue-and-white are, in fact, jinxed. We're not convinced that Phil Kessel is the reason behind this curse, but we are certain that his performance is directly impacted by it. His current Yahoo! ranking puts him 38th in the league, yet his 30 day rank is 353rd. It gets even worse when you look at 14-day and 7-day. The Leafs have scored less goals in the last two weeks than they have received jerseys thrown on the ice in disgust. His 19 goals and 25 assists for 44 points looks fantastic for a first half, but based on recent history, he may end the season with that many. If he gets traded before the deadline, however, expect a huge spike as he exorcises his Toronto demons.

Steve Downie W, PIT – With the arrival of David Perron to Pittsburgh, Downie has been relegated to the third line, and his unlikely fantasy breakthrough has likely come to a close. Prior to Perron's arrival, Dowie was all things to all owners – crushing the league in PIM, where he currently has 152 (far and away the highest), but he was also a reasonable performer with eight goals and 13 assists for 21 points. Owning him was a virtual lock on one category by himself, and he also positively contributed to others. Sadly, it seems those days are behind him now, and his relegation to the third line has likely converted this highly touted fantasy prospect into another thug that's good for very little production other than PIM.

Matt Duchene C, COL – Colorado's failure to replicate their success from last year falls on many shoulders, but one of the first to bear the burden is Duchene. His 29 points in 48 games is almost half the production he put up in the last campaign at this point. Based on forecasting, he's not likely to best 50 points this year – certainly a step backwards, and not nearly good enough for a first-line center at the NHL level. Keeper owners need not fret; this has the hallmarks of simply a bad season, not any sort of trend. Duchene is still a stud for a long time, but this isn't going to be his year. The second half looks like it's going to be more of the same.