This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 294 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $600k UFC 294 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Lightweight Championship
(C) Islam Makhachev (24-1-0) v. Alexander Volkanovski (26-2-0)
DK Salaries: Makhachev ($8,700), Volkanovski ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Makhachev (-250), Volkanovski (+205)
The top of this card has been reshuffled to a greater extent than any big event in recent memory. Makhachev was due to face Charles Oliveira in a rematch here before Charles was forced to withdraw due to a nasty cut above his eye suffered during training. Volkanovski agreed to step in on what will be less than two weeks' notice. It's a pretty safe bet that most people, myself included, would rather see this fight than an Oliveira rematch.
It's worth noting Alex was booked to defend his UFC Featheweight Championship against Ilia Topuria at UFC 297 this coming January. Whether or not that fight will still take place likely depends on his health following this one.
Islam and Volk fought for the lightweight belt this past February in Australia. Makhachev won via unanimous decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46), but boy was it a battle the entire way. It appeared clear as day that Islam won Rounds 1 and 4, while Volk won 3 and 5. Round 2 could have gone either way.
Islam hasn't fought since the last bout between the two, while Volkanovski competed once, destroying Yair Rodriguez via third-round TKO and defending his UFC Featherweight Championship this past July.
The first bout between the two was a tale of two fights. Makhachev, as expected, leaned on his wrestling. He landed 4-of-9 takedown attempts, good for 7:37 worth of control time. It wasn't the dominant mat showing we have seen from Islam in some of his other fights, but he did enough on the ground to earn the decision.
On the flip side, Volk was the MUCH more effective striker despite being four inches shorter. He outlanded Islam by a 164-95 count, which isn't that surprising considering all Makhachev's control time. A Round 5 Volkanovski knockdown was the biggest moment of the fight either way.
Islam was overwhelmed on the feet by Volkanovski at times. He appears uncomfortable at times in prolonged striking exchanges, but the constant threat of the takedown produces openings on the stand-up that may not otherwise materialize. The main difference is that Volk is going to make Makhachev work for his takedowns. He isn't going to make foolish mistakes like attempting an off-balance strike that would allow Islam to drive him to the mat. Volk is too slick and too good for that.
That said, Volkanovski fought a near perfect fight against Islam and still came up short. I love his chances in prolonged kickboxing exchanges, but Makhachev is the best grappler in the sport today, and he's also bigger and stronger than Volk, although Alex is one of the strongest pound-for-pound fighters in the sport.
Even a moderate improvement in remaining upright would swing this fight in Alex's direction. Let's say he gives up three takedowns for five minutes of control time instead of the four for 7:37 he allowed in the last five. That's more than two-and-a-half minutes he would have to work Islam over on the feet. A small gap such as that could very easily be the difference in a fight between arguably the two best pound-for-pound fighters in the world today.
The value here is clearly on Volk. He proved in the first fight the gap between the two isn't much. Getting him at such a big plus number and such a cheap DK salary is highly intriguing, but I still have to back Islam until I see someone defeat him at 155 pounds.
UFC 294 PICK: Makhachev
Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Khamzat Chimaev (12-0-0) v. Kamaru Usman (20-3-0)
DK Salaries: Chimaev ($8,900), Usman ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Chimaev (-275), Usman (+225)
The rearranging of the top of this card continues here. Chimaev was due to fight Paulo Costa. Costa underwent elbow surgery recently and despite his claims on social media that he would be ready to go, the UFC pulled the plug and inserted Usman, the former UFC Welterweight Champion, in this spot. Again, providing what appears like an upgrade in terms of fight quality.
The last we saw Chimaev, he was rolling through Kevin Holland, submitting him in just over two minutes in a 180-pound catch weight fight last September. Khamzat was due to face Nate Diaz in a welterweight co-main event that night, but missed weight by a hysterical 7.5 pounds, and the entire card had to be reshuffled as a result. He's 6-0 in the UFC with wins over Holland, Gilbert Burns and Li Jingliang. Only Burns managed to see the final bell. I can't see the weight cut being an issue for him considering this fight is scheduled for 185 pounds.
Usman has lost back-to-back title fights -- both to Leon Edwards -- on the heels of a 19-fight winning streak. He originally dropped the 170-pound belt to Edwards in August 2022 in a bout he was cruising to a unanimous decision win, only to get knocked out via a head kick with 56 seconds remaining. The two re-matched this past March, with Usman looking awful in a majority decision defeat (46-48, 46-48, 47-47) that would have appeared far more lopsided had Edwards not been deducted a point for a Round 3 fence grab.
I have no idea what to make of Usman moving forward. This is a guy that was unquestionably one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world for a long time, but he turned 36 years of age this past May and appears to be slipping. Toss in the fact he's spent his entire career prior to this fight at welterweight, and I'm even more baffled. I'm typically not a fan of fighters switching weight classes in the latter stages of their careers.
Chimaev is almost exactly seven years younger and two inches taller, although Usman will have a one-inch reach edge.
We all know Khamzat is very reliant on his wrestling and explosiveness to be successful. He's landing 3.98 takedowns per 15 minutes. Usman defends the takedown at a brilliant 97-percent clip. In fact, he's been dragged to the mat just once in his UFC career and that, oddly enough, came in the first Edwards fight which he dominated. That said, fending off shots from Chimaev at middleweight is not the same as defending attempts from other guys at welterweight. Kamaru's wrestling game will have to be on point if he hopes of thriving in his new weight class.
There are a whole lot of question marks here. Usman, aging, apparently slipping, and fighting in a new weight class. Chimaev with his weight cutting issues, combined with the fact he hasn't fought in well over a year.
I'll start by saying I hate the price tag on Khamzat. All the potential value on that side is completely evaporated given his inflated DK salary and massive Vegas number, but Usman looked SO bad in the most recent Edwards fight that I have a difficult time believing he'll be able to defeat Chimaev in a grappling contest. Remember, Kamaru has never been the most proficient striker. In a three-round fight, I expect Usman to need multiple successful takedowns of his own to win. I don't think it happens.
UFC 294 PICK: Chimaev
Light Heavyweight
Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1) v. Johnny Walker (21-7-0)
DK Salaries: Ankalaev ($9,100), Walker ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Ankalaev (-340), Walker (+270)
We last saw Ankalaev in December 2022, fighting Jan Blachowicz for the vacant UFC Light Heavyweight Championship. It ended up being a career-altering night for Magomed, as the fight ended in a split draw, a shocking result considering Ankalaev deserved the victory and should have walked out as champion. Now, he has to fight a tough customer in Walker just go get his name back into title contention.
Walker as a legitimate release candidate following a stretch from November 2019 to February 2022 in which he lost four of five, but he has since rebounded with three straight wins over Anthony Smith, Paul Craig and Ion Cutelaba. All three of those opponents are solid, but far from the top of the food chain at 205 pounds. Walker's physical gifts aren't in question. He's gigantic, and the power is beyond legitimate, but I still have questions about the fight IQ. I think we are going to learn a lot here about just how good he really is.
Ankalaev's advanced numbers are mind blowing. He absorbs just 2.15 significant strikes per minute despite the fact he averages less than a takedown (0.99) per 15 minutes. When you see a fighter take that little damage, it's typically because they are always wrestling and find themselves in top position constantly. Think Makhachev or Khabib Nurmagomedov. Ankalaev is just an excellent defender, especially considering he fights in a higher weight class.
Walker is going to have to use his size to his advantage, and he's going to have to do so quickly. Johnny enters with a three-inch height edge and a whopping seven-inch reach advantage. Four of his last six fights have ended in Round 1, and I highly doubt Walker will be able to hang with Ankalaev is this thing goes for an extended period of time, so Johnny should probably just go for broke in search of an immediate finish.
The price tag on Walker is reasonable given his massive power, but his path to victory is really quite small. There's zero doubt Ankalaev is the better all-around fighter. I could see things getting hairy for Magomed at times early on, but given the fact he has displayed zero durabiltiy issues in the past, my guess is he survives the flurry Walker sends his way and emerges victorious.
UFC 294 PICK: Ankalaev
Middleweight
Ikram Aliskerov (14-1-0) v. Warlley Alves (15-6-0)
DK Salaries: Aliskerov ($9,500), Alves ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Aliskerov (-520), Alves (+390)
This is, you guessed it, another opponent change. Alves is in for Nassourdine Imavov, who was forced to withdraw due to visa issue.
The sample size on Aliskerov is virtually non-existent. He has made exactly one appearance with the company, knocking out Phil Hawes in just over two minutes this past May. He had a submission win on Dana White's Contender series in September 2020, and his lone professional setback was a knockout at the hands of Chimaev in April 2019. That's where our information on Alisekrov ends. He's a four-time World Sambo Champion and has five career wins via submission, so he appears to have a pretty well-rounded skill set.
Alves, winner of Season 3 of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil, is almost certainly fighting for his job here. Maybe the UFC gives him a pass even with a defeat because he accepted this one on short notice, but the loser of back-to-back bouts and sporting a 2-4 record in his past half-dozen fights, Warlley is going to be on extremely shaky ground if he is unable to get a victory in this one.
Alves' claim to fame is a 86-second submission win over Colby Covington in December 2015. His four UFC victories since have come against Mounir Lazzez, Sultan Aliev, Sergio Moraes and Salim Touahri. That's not exactly the top of the food chain.
Aliskerov is going to have the edge in terms of power. His four-inch reach edge should help to reinforce what should be a significant edge on the feet.
It's worth noting that Aliskerov has missed weight twice in his pro career. Once in 2022 and once back in 2018. Keep an eye on how he looks on the scale, but assuming there are no issues, this would appear to be an easy pick. It sure feels like the UFC just wanted to keep Ikram on the card, and Alves was available.
We have very little information on Aliskerov, which is concerning, but we have plenty of information Alves, and it's not great. Ikram was due to be roughly a -125 favorite over Imavov, and I was seriously tempted to pick the latter, but you have to go with Aliskerov in this matchup. Even if you aren't confident in his long-term abilities, Alves is a completely fade at this point, especially on short notice. That doesn't mean I have any interest at all in backing Aliskerov at such a massive price tag, but he should win this fight easily.
UFC 294 PICK: Aliskerov
Bantamweight
Said Nurmagomedov (17-3-0) v. Muin Gafurov (18-5-0)
DK Salaries: Nurmagomedov ($8,800), Gafurov ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Nurmagomedov (-230), Gafurov (+190)
Nurmagomedov hasn't fought much, stepping into the Octagon just eight times since his July 2018 UFC debut, but the results have been positive. He's 6-2 with the UFC and should probably be 7-1. His most recent bout was a unanimous decision defeat to Jonathan Martinez this past March, a fight Nurmagomedov may very well have deserved. Said might not be a title contender in a loaded bantamweight division, but he's a solid fighter.
This looks like a prime rebound spot for Nurmagomedov, facing an opponent in Gafurov who has lost his only fight with the UFC. Muin dropped a split decision to Chad Anheliger on Dana White's Contender Series in September 2021. He was eventually signed and debuted this past June, dropping a unanimous decision to John Castaneda. Gafurov is young enough at age 27 to expect reasons for improvement moving forward, but if he puts for another lousy showing against Nurmagomedov, there's no guarantee that opportunity will come with the UFC.
Said is a long, lanky guy. He's tall (5-foot-8) for the division and fights aggressively. He's not your prototypical Dagestani wrestler, however. In fact, Gafurov probably has the grappling edge here. Nurmagomedov has been taken down in three of his past six fights, so he's somewhat used to fighting off of his back and trying to work his way back to his feet. I'm sure that's where Gafurov would prefer this fight take place.
Nurmagomedov actually has the lowest odds of any fighter on the main card, which is crazy considering he's -225, but other than Aliskerov, he's probably the safest pick of the group.
That's because he's facing by far the weakest opponent of the bunch. No disrespect to Gafurov, but when you're going up against the likes of Volkanovski, Usman and Walker, anything can happen.
I really don't like picking all favorites on the main cards, but unless I'm missing something, Nurm seems likely to cruise to a decision in this fight, which is the best result for the company, as well, considering he's a fighter to get behind in a loaded bantamweight division.
UFC 294 PICK: Nurmagomedov
Other Bouts
Flyweight
Tim Elliott (20-12-1) v. Muhammad Mokaev (10-0-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Elliott ($6,600), Mokaev ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Elliott (+370), Mokaev (-485)
UFC 294 PICK: Mokaev
Lightweight
Mohammad Yahya (12-3-0) v. Trevor Peek (8-0-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Yahya ($8,000), Peek ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Yahya (+105), Peek (-125)
UFC 294 PICK: Peek
Bantamweight
Javid Basharat (14-0-0) v. Victor Henry (23-6-0)
DK Salaries: Basharat ($9,400), Henry ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Basharat (-550), Henry (+410)
UFC 294 PICK: Basharat
Middleweight
Abu Azaitar (14-3-1) v. Sedriques Dumas (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Azaitar ($7,800), Dumas ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Azaitar (+150), Dumas (-180)
UFC 294 PICK: Azaitar
Lightweight
Mike Breeden (10-6-0) v. Anshul Jubli (7-0-0)
DK Salaries: Breeden ($6,900), Jubli ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Breeden (+310), Jubli (-395)
UFC 294 PICK: Jubli
Featherweight
Nathaniel Wood (20-5-0) v. Muhammadjon Naimov (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Wood ($9,000), Naimov ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Wood (-325), Naimov (+260)
UFC 294 PICK: Wood
Women's Strawweight
Viktoriia Dudakova (7-0-0) v. Jinh Yu Frey (11-9-0)
DK Salaries: Dudakova ($9,200), Frey ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Dudakova (-470), Frey (+360)
UFC 294 PICK: Dudakova
Middleweight
Sharaputdin Magomedov (11-0-0) v. Bruno Silva (23-9-0)
DK Salaries: Magomedov ($8,600), Silva ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Magomedov (-250), Silva (+200)
UFC 294 PICK: Magomedov
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 294 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
