This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 311 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC 311 takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $500k UFC 311 Special with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Lightweight Championship
(C) Islam Makhachev (26-1-0) v. Arman Tsarukyan (22-3-0)
DK Salaries: Makhachev ($9,400), Tsarukyan ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Makhachev (-395), Tsarukyan (+310)
This is a rematch of an April 2019 fight which took place in St. Petersburg, Russia that Makhachev won via unanimous decision. It was also Tsarukyan's UFC debut.
Islam is probably the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world at the moment. He won the UFC Lightweight Championship in October 2022 against Charles Oliveira and has since defended the belt against Alexander Volkanovski (twice) and Dustin Poirier. With all due respect to Volk, he's a natural featherweight, and I expect Tsarukyan to give Islam his toughest test to date.
Tsarukyan turned just 28 years of age in October, so he should be in his prime for several more years. He's won nine of ten dating back to July 2019. Included in that stretch are victories over the likes of Olivier Aubin-Mercier (before he defected to PFL), Joel Alvarez, Beneil Dariush and Oliveira. Arman is a worthy contender and deserves this shot, regardless of how it turns out.
Islam is averaging 3.19 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing a whopping 53 percent of his attempts. That first number is a bit deceiving. It should probably be even higher, but once Makhachev gets an opponent to the mat, he keeps them there, limiting his ability to rack up additional takedowns. He's arguably the best fighter in the sport in terms of dominating his opponent from top position and doing enough to ensure the referee doesn't stand them back up. Islam isn't the type top land a ton of damaging blows from the top, but he always seems to be a step ahead.
Arman is one of the few fighters in the world with the ability to come close to matching Makhachev's grappling. He's averaging 3.25 takedowns per 15 minutes. He got Oliveira twice on four attempts, but those two successful tries turned into 8:41 worth of control time.
It's imperative that neither man be content with remaining on their back should the other get them to the mat.
The first fight between the two was entirely based upon grappling. Islam went 4-of-9 on takedown attempts, while Arman went 1-of-12. The two men combined to land just 27 significant strikes and Makhachev's 6:06 worth of control time, in a three-round bout, won him the fight.
Tsarukyan tends to be more active on the feet, but not surprisingly, neither man gets hit much. Both absorb less than two significant strikes per minute, which is the result of spending so much time in top position. I THINK I prefer Arman in prolonged striking exchanges between the two, but it's close, and I don't have a real firm lean one way or another there.
I definitely prefer Arman from a DK standpoint, even if I'm not picking him to win outright. I simply don't see a $2,600 difference in salary between the two. I expect this to be a fairly evenly-matched fight, far closer than many others are predicting. I don't think either man is going to spend long times dominating the other. Islam's body of work and his success in the first fight between the two makes me lean on his direction, but I wouldn't be the least bit shocked if Tsarukyan pulled the upset. It's probably going to go 25 minutes.
THE PICK: Makhachev
Co-Main Event - Bantamweight Championship
(C) Merab Dvalishvili (18-4-0) v. Umar Nurmagomedov (18-0-0)
DK Salaries: Dvalishvili ($7,000), Nurmagomedov ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Dvalishvili (+260), Nurmagomedov (-325)
This has become a surprisingly heated rivalry in short order.
Merab won the UFC Bantamweight Championship in September, dominating Sean O'Malley in a lopsided unanimous decision win. It played out exactly how Dvalishvili backers expected. He landed six takedowns for 10:03 worth of control time. Merab limited O'Malley's space and made sure Sean wasn't able to pick him apart at distance. It was boring at times, but a perfect game plan. This figures to be a much stiffer test from a stylistic standpoint.
Cousin Umar has been viewed as a future title challenger at 135 pounds, essentially since making his UFC debut back in January 2021. He won each of his first five fights with the company against middling competition before taking on Cory Sandhagen last August. Sandhagen is a top-five guy and unquestionably one of the best in the division. Nurmagomedov dispatched him without issue, landing five takedowns and showing some much-improved stand-up skills. The latter part there makes me feel much better about his projection moving forward. He beat a top opponent and showed he didn't need to lean on his grappling for 25 minutes to do it.
The breakdown here has some similarities to the main event.
Both guys are used to spending a ton of time in top position. As a result, neither tend to get hit all that much.
Merab is going to have a cardio advantage because he has a cardio advantage over everyone. No fighter in the sport can come close to matching his pace. I do wonder if that will play dividends in the championship rounds. It would appear to be a mortal lock this fight is going to last a while. Nurmagomedov is so skilled that I don't think Merab will be able to overwhelm him early on, but perhaps the high pace will result in a well-timed takedown or two late which could be the difference.
The striking exchanges should be interesting. Umar should have the edge there, if for no other reason than Merab has a tendency to be overaggressive. That said, Dvalishvili's striking has improved considerably of late. It doesn't really need to be a strength, it just has to be good enough to serve as a second weapon to work off of his grappling game.
Merab's defensive wrestling is strong, but he was taken down once by Cejudo, once by Yan and once by Cody Stamann. He's very good at not accepting compromising positions on the mat, so Nurmagomedov is going to have to work to remain in a dominant position if he is able to get there.
This is another line that makes zero sense to me. You want to say Umar should be the favorite? Sure, I buy that, but -325 over a high-level opponent with elite wrestling and the best cardio in the company? No way. I couldn't get to Tsarukyan in the main event despite liking the number, but I'm rolling with Merab here. Nurmagomedov is probably the more well-rounded fighter, but the price is right to hope Dvalishvili can land a few well-timed takedowns and grind his way to a decision.
THE PICK: Dvalishivli
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Light Heavyweight
Jiri Prochazka (30-5-1) v. Jamahal Hill (12-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Prochazka ($8,000), Hill ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Prochazka (-105), Hill (-115)
Hill's UFC run has been strange. He parlayed three straight knockout wins over lesser competition (Thiago Santos, Johnny Walker, Jim Crute) into a shot at the vacant 205-pound title in January 2023. He took a unanimous decision from Glover Teixeira to win the belt and then ruptured his Achilles playing basketball that July. He was forced to relinquish the belt and remained sidelined until the main event at UFC 300 last April, at which point he fought Alex Pereira for the title. He was clearly well less than 100 percent and lost via first-round knockout. Hill's probably better than I'm giving him credit for, but he'll be 34 years of age in May, and his lone quality UFC win came against an opponent in Glover that was in his early-40's at the time.
A former Rizin standout, Prochazka has lost two of his last three, although both defeats have been to Pereira in title fights, so it's hard to hold that against him. Jiri dealt with a shoulder injury in the past and is no spring chicken himself at age 32. He's closing in on 40 professional fights and probably has to win here in order to remain in the championship conversation in an admittedly-thin light heavyweight division.
The Hill v. Pereira UFC 300 fight came together very late, and it was clear as day that Jamahal wasn't fully recovered and ready to go. It probably wouldn't have made a difference even if he was, but I expect him to look considerably better here given he's been off since last April. Hill doesn't have a single career win via submission, so he's going to have to stand in the pocket with Jiri and hope something big connects.
Prochazka's main downfall in my eyes has always been his inability to create any secondary forms of offense. His power is entirely legitimate and he relies on it for success. Almost every fight in which he competes quickly turns into a brawl. Four of his five career defeats have come via knockout, including both of the setbacks to Pereira. If his chin is starting to go even in the slightest, he's probably done in terms of being a contender.
All that said, Jiri is still my pick here.
I think he has an edge over Hill in terms of pure power. That's the defining factor -- along with durability -- if a fight turns into a wild brawl. Prochazka knows Hill isn't going to shoot on him since he hasn't landed a single takedown in his UFC career.
In a fight that's close to a pick 'em, I'd rather roll the dice on Jiri and hope he lands one big blow that gets Hill out of there. If Jamahal comes back looking healthier than he did in the Pereira fight, he definitely has a path to victory, but I have to see it to believe it. Every potential Hill win will almost certainly result in him having to survive a handful of massive blows from Prochazka.
THE PICK: Prochazka
Lightweight
Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) v. Renato Moicano (20-5-1)
DK Salaries: Dariush ($7,500), Moicano ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Dariush (+145), Moicano (-175)
One of the most underrated fighters in the sport for north of a decade, Dariush won eight straight from November 2018 to October 2022. He was then pushed to the top of the food chain and suffered back-to-back knockout defeats to Tsarukyan and Charles Oliveira. He hasn't fought since 2023. It should be noted that it was reported Dariush dealt with a torn meniscus during his time away. On one hand, the extended break probably isn't a bad thing, but on the other, Dariush will be 36 years of age in May and will be all but finished if he comes up short against Moicano.
Moicano is on a roll, winning four straight dating back to November 2022. He didn't fight at all in 2023 and then went on to pick up three wins in less than eight months in 2024. His most recent triumph was by far his most impressive to date -- an absolute beatdown of Benoit Saint-Denis in a main event spot in Paris in late-September. I've had my doubts at Moicano in the past and still do in terms of him competing with the best, but he's clearly a top-10 guy, even in a loaded lightweight division.
Dariush is difficult to break down. He almost always starts slowly, which has cost him in the past. He has an impressive all-around game and no significant weaknesses, but he looks a bit sleepy inside the Octagon at times, and by the time he gets going, it can be too late. I actually thought the fact he was facing aggressive opposition like Tsarukyan and Olivieira might be a good thing because it would force him to get going early, but that turned out not to be the case. He's facing another opponent here in Moicano who floors the gas pedal throughout his fights.
Moicano is aggressive inside the Octagon to the point of recklessness. He was a big volume guy early in his career, but that has kind of dried up of late, as many of his fights have ended quickly. He has just two career wins via knockout, and they came in his two most recent bouts against Saint-Denis and Turner. I would bet on the knockouts continuing, but he very clearly has enough damage in his hands to damage his opponent.
I think Moicano's clearest path to victory is to try to make some headway in the feet early. Use Dariush's inactivity against him. Moicano is a wizard on the mat, but Beneil has a very tricky ground game. If Renato makes a mistake or leaves a limb exposed, Dariush can capitalize.
Dariush doesn't have a knockout win since August 2020, so Moicano should be able to handle anything coming back his way in the stand-up.
I've admittedly never been a big Moicano backer, but the price here seems quite fair. Dariush is getting up there in age and trending in the wrong direction, while Renato is fresh off back-to-back brilliant performances against high-level opposition in BSD and Jalin Turner.
THE PICK: Moicano
Middleweight
Kevin Holland (26-12-0, 1NC) v. Reinier de Ridder (18-2-0)
DK Salaries: Holland ($8,300), De Ridder ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Holland (+100), De Ridder (-120)
Holland is in a very tough spot. He's answered the call whenever the UFC has asked, and his record has suffered as a result. He's lost three of his last four and five of his last eight dating back to September 2022. Holland is still capable of a standout performance here and there, but expectations needs to be kept in check moving forward. This isn't an easy fight, although it's probably a bit more favorable than some of the others Holland has been handed recently.
De Ridder, a former two-division ONE champion, made his UFC debut against Gerald Meerschaert in November. He entered as a -350 favorite and won via third-round submission, but it was a medicore performance, to say the least. RDR really struggled on the feet against a guy who is known as one of the weaker strikers in the division. He won because Meerschaert couldn't defend a takedown, and to de Ridder's credit, he took advantage of that. Things won't be as easy against Holland.
Holland is at his best on the feet when he is able to remain at distance and pick his opposition apart. He's going to have a three-inch reach edge over RDR despite being an inch shorter. Kevin's power has dried up of late, which isn't really a shock considering this will be his 40th professional fight. He's going to have to find other ways to win, and that hasn't always been easy for him.
De Ridder is definitely better on the mat than the feet, but I was entirely unimpressed with everything about his game in the Meerschaert fight. He lacked explosiveness and ate too many big blows on the feet. Meerschaert felt like an ideal matchup for a guy seemingly with a boatload of potential, but it didn't play out that way.
Whenever these guys that have had a ton of success in other organizations -- particularly those overseas -- come to the UFC, you have to study them on a case-by-case basis.
Maybe RDR was simply nervous for his UFC debut, and he'll look better this time around. It's certainly possible. Another possibility is that he's 34 years of age and has joined the UFC well past his athletic prime.
I'm not rushing to back Holland against anyone right now, but it's pretty clear he's lightyears better than Meerschaert and has more ways to win. He's been in the octagon with the likes of Roman Dolidze, Khamzat Chimaev, Stephen Thompson, Marvin Vettori, Brendan Allen, etc..
There's a real chance all those guys are better than anyone RDR had faced overseas.
This fight has a lot of potential outcomes, but I'd like to see de Ridder defeated someone decent before buying it. He looked lousy against Meerschaert just a couple months ago, and now he's getting a quick turnaround against a better opponent. I'll take the other side.
THE PICK: Holland
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OTHER BOUTS
Light Heavyweight
Bogdan Guskov (16-3-0) v. Billy Elekana (7-1-1)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Guskov (-350), Elekana (+260)
THE PICK: Guskov
Bantamweight
Payton Talbott (9-0-0) v. Raoni Barcelos (18-5-0)
DK Salaries: Talbott ($9,900), Barcelos ($6,300)
Vegas Odds: Talbott (-1200), Barcelos (+750)
THE PICK: Talbott
Heavyweight
Jailton Almeida (21-3-0) v. Serghei Spivac (17-4-0)
DK Salaries: Almeida ($9,500), Spivac ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Almeida (-425), Spivac (+330)
THE PICK: Spivac
Lightweight
Grant Dawson (22-2-1) v. Carlos Diego Ferreira (19-5-0)
DK Salaries: Dawson ($9,000), Ferreira ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Dawson (-260), Ferreira (+200)
THE PICK: Dawson
Women's Bantamweight
Karol Rosa (18-6-0) v. Ailin Perez (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Rosa ($8,600), Perez ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Rosa (-265), Perez (+215)
THE PICK: Rosa
Bantamweight
Rinya Nakamura (9-0-0) v. Muin Gafurov (19-6-0)
DK Salaries: Nakamura ($9,600), Gafurov ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Nakamura (-500), Gafurov (+380)
THE PICK: Nakamura
Bantamweight
Ricky Turcios (13-4-0) v. Bernardo Sopaj (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Turcios ($6,900), Sopaj ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Turcios (+280), Sopaj (-355)
THE PICK: Turcios
Flyweight
Tagir Ulanbekov (15-2-0) v. Clayton Carpenter (8-0-0)
DK Salaries: Ulanbekov ($8,900), Carpenter ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Ulanbekov (-325), Carpenter (+260)
THE PICK: Ulanbekov
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 311 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
