Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC 323
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 323 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 337-147-1 ~ Dog Picks 50-41-1
Drake's Bets of the Week: Muhammad Naimov +205 / Bogdan Guskov +112
Bet of the Week Record: 23-16-1 +1768
DFS Lock of the Week: Bogdan Guskov - 30-7
Fanduel Captain: Dvalishvili/Guskov
Merab Dvalishvili (21-4-0) v. Petr Yan (19-5-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21-4 (3 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 16 decisions)
- One of the most relentless pace fighters in UFC history, averaging absurd takedown attempts per fight
- Breaks opponents with cardio, pressure, clinch grinding, and nonstop chain wrestling
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 19-5 (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 11 decisions)
- Highly technical boxer with elite footwork, counter-timing, and defensive awareness
- Struggles when forced backward or stuck reacting to volume and takedown chains rather than leading
DFS Perspective: Merab is once again one of the strongest DFS plays on the slate. His combination of pace, takedown volume, clinch grinding, and cardio provides one of the highest floors in DFS. he scores even while not landing every takedown. Yan's counter boxing gives him windows in open space, but Merab's style is tailor-made for DFS scoring: relentless attempts, endless control time, and overwhelming pressure. Expect Merab to replicate his success with high output, massive wrestling metrics, and slate-breaking fantasy potential.
UFC 323 Pick: Dvalishvili
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Alexandre Pantoja (30-5-0) v. Joshua Van (15-2-0)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 30-5 (8 KO/TKO, 12 submissions, 10 decisions)
- Relentless pressure fighter with elite grappling, dangerous back-taking, and underrated power
- Thrives in chaos, scrambles, brawls, and momentum swings all tend to favor him due to experience and grit
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-2 (7 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 6 decisions)
- Talented, tough, and poised beyond his years; mixes sharp boxing with strong scrambles and relentless forward movement
- Durable and gritty, with a style that doesn't fade, he gets stronger as the fight becomes more chaotic
DFS Perspective: While Pantoja is the rightful favorite and brings elite finishing upside, Van is a solid DFS dog to take shots on. His pace, toughness, and scrambling ability make him extremely live in what could be a wild, high-scoring affair. Van can match Pantoja's pressure and create moments in both striking and scrambles, giving him multiple DFS paths despite the underdog status. Expect a gritty, back-and-forth fight where Van's volume and durability could turn the tide and deliver strong DFS value.
UFC 323 Pick: Van
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Brandon Moreno (23-8-2) v. Tatsuro Taira (17-1-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 23-8-2 (5 KO/TKO, 11 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Wild pace, elite scrambling, and a slick submission game
- Massive experience edge in championship-level wars; durability and heart keep him dangerous in every round
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-1 (5 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Phenomenal back-taker with elite positional awareness and patient, suffocating grappling
- Calm, calculated, and efficient, rarely wastes movements, and excels at forcing mistakes in scrambles
DFS Perspective: This is one of the most intriguing DFS fights on the slate. Moreno's pace, volume, and scrambling could generate massive points if he can keep this standing or create chaos on the mat. But Taira's clean, methodical grappling and elite positional control give him a very strong DFS ceiling, especially if he finds the back for extended periods. My slight lean is to Taira for DFS due to youth, momentum, and control upside, but Moreno is absolutely live as a high-action underdog with finishing and reversal potential. Expect scrambles, momentum swings, and big fantasy scores either way.
UFC 323 Pick: Taira
Henry Cejudo (16-5-0) v. Payton Talbott (10-1-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-5 (7 KO/TKO, 1 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Olympic gold-medal wrestler with elite scrambling, sharp counters, and high fight IQ
- Still dangerous, but slowing with age and far less durable than in his prime, especially in extended striking exchanges
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 10-1 (7 KO/TKO, 1 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Young, explosive striker with massive reach, clean shot selection, and relentless finishing instincts
- Continues to improve fight-to-fight; excellent at maintaining distance and punishing entries
DFS Perspective: Talbott is the preferred DFS play and carries one of the strongest knockout paths on the slate. His length, speed, and power present huge problems for an aging Cejudo, whose entries will be far more predictable at this stage. Cejudo's wrestling gives him GPP leverage if he can consistently get inside, but Talbott's ability to keep range and land punishing counters makes him the high-ceiling pick. Expect Talbott to stuff shots, force Cejudo into striking exchanges, and likely find the KO.
UFC 323 Pick: Talbott
Jan Blachowicz (29-11-1) v. Bogdan Guskov (18-3-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 29-11-1 (9 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 11 decisions)
- Powerful counterstriker with legendary "Polish Power," strong clinch work, and underrated grappling
- Still dangerous, but noticeably slower in recent fights and far less durable in extended exchanges
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-3 (15 KO/TKO, 3 submission)
- Explosive knockout artist with massive power, fast entries, and ruthless finishing instincts
- Aggressive early, thrives when he can push opponents backward and force high-pressure exchanges
DFS Perspective: Guskov is the preferred DFS play with one of the clearest knockout paths on the slate. His speed and explosiveness match up perfectly against an aging Błachowicz, who has slowed down and become more vulnerable. Jan's veteran savvy and counter game give him mild GPP appeal, but Guskov's youth, power, and pace make him the far more dangerous DFS option. Expect Guskov to pressure early, force reactive defense from Jan, and eventually connect with fight-ending power.
UFC 323 Pick: Guskov
Grant Dawson (23-2-1) v. Manuel Torres (16-3-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 23-2-1 (5 KO/TKO, 13 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Strong chain-wrestler with excellent back-taking, patient control, and smooth transitions
- At his best when he gets ahead early — heavy top pressure and smothering grappling can completely shut opponents down
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 16-3 (8 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 1 decision)
- Fast, explosive striker with dangerous combinations and a killer instinct in close
- Strong early but can be taken down if pressured smartly; defensive grappling still developing
DFS Perspective: Dawson becomes the preferred DFS side given your read, and it's a strong angle. If Dawson avoids early danger, his takedowns and top control should take over quickly. Torres is extremely lethal in the opening minutes, but Dawson's style is built for DFS scoring through repeated takedowns, control time, and submission attempts. Expect Dawson to close the distance early, implement smart wrestling pressure, and accumulate strong fantasy points once he settles into the top position.
UFC 323 Pick: Dawson
Terrance McKinney (17-7-0) v. Chris Duncan (14-2-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 17-7 (8 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- One of the most explosive starters in the UFC, blistering speed, huge power, and a dangerous front choke
- All offense early, but cardio falls off a cliff if he doesn't secure a finish in the first few minutes
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-2 (7 KO/TKO, 3 submission, 4 decisions)
- Durable pressure fighter with strong hooks, clinch control, and underrated wrestling
- Not the fastest starter, but thrives when opponents fade, excellent at turning chaos into pressure dominance
DFS Perspective: This is a pure violence GPP fight. McKinney is always live for a slate-breaking early finish, but Duncan is the preferred DFS side for stability and comeback potential. If Duncan survives the first three minutes, his pressure, durability, and cardio advantage should allow him to take over and score heavily through volume and attrition. Expect an all-action start with either a McKinney nuke or Duncan dragging him into deep water for a late finish or dominant decision.
UFC 323 Pick: Duncan
Maycee Barber (14-2-0) v. Karine Silva (19-5-0)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 14-2 (6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Physical, aggressive striker who overwhelms opponents with clinch strength, pressure, and durability
- Normally a reliable grinder, but recent issues (pulling out of a fight and missing weight) raise real questions about her readiness and overall form
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19-5 (8 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 2 decisions)
- One of the division's most dangerous finishers with elite front-choke setups and violent transitions
- Aggressive early and thrives in scrambles; always hunting for a finish the moment an opening appears
DFS Perspective: Silva is the preferred DFS play. Barber has the physicality to win minutes, but the uncertainty surrounding her condition makes her tough to trust -- if she were 100 percent, this matchup would feel much closer. Silva's finishing upside, especially via submission, gives her a clear ceiling edge. Barber remains a viable GPP pivot due to pace and strength, but Silva's danger in every scramble makes her the sharper DFS target.
UFC 323 Pick: Silva
Fares Ziam (17-4-0) v. Nazim Sadykhov (11-1-1)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-4 (5 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Tall, technical striker who uses length well with jabs, teeps, and controlled pacing
- Strong defensively and good at winning minutes, but can be slowed by aggressive pressure fighters
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 11-1-1 (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 1 decision)
- Tough, durable pressure fighter with real power and a willingness to bite down and push forward
- Excellent in close-range exchanges and extremely good at dragging opponents into gritty, high-output fights
DFS Perspective: Sadykhov is a strong DFS dog to target. His pressure, durability, and finishing upside give him multiple scoring paths, especially if he forces Ziam off his rhythm and into close-range brawls. Ziam's length and technical precision make him a viable favorite, but his lower output and slower pace cap his DFS ceiling. Expect Sadykhov to make this fight dirty, raise the pace, and create real opportunities to break Ziam down for an upset.
UFC 323 Pick: Sadykohv
Marvin Vettori (19-8-1) v. Brunno Ferreira (14-2-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 19-8-1 (2 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Extremely durable, tough-as-nails pressure fighter with solid wrestling and strong clinch control
- Good at winning minutes, but striking lacks danger and he's been slowing down in recent outings
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-2 (9 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Wildly explosive finisher with nuclear power in both hands and fast, blitz-style entries
- Controlled chaos: when he decides to go, he goes hard, and few middleweights can survive those flurries
DFS Perspective: Ferreira is the preferred DFS play. His explosiveness and finishing ability give him a much higher ceiling than Vettori, who rarely scores big without extended wrestling dominance. Ferreira's power and speed create immediate danger, and Vettori's willingness to stand in front of opponents could backfire badly. Vettori's durability and grinding style make him a contrarian GPP option, but Ferreira's violence-first approach makes him the sharper DFS target for a potential knockout win.
UFC 323 Pick: Ferreira
Edson Barboza (24-13-0) v. Jalin Turner (14-9-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 24-13 (13 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 9 decisions)
- Still one of the most dangerous kickers in MMA history—elite speed, vicious body shots, and sharp counters
- Durable and experienced, but slowing with age and far more vulnerable to heavy pressure and long, athletic opponents
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 14-9 (10 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Huge lightweight with sniper-like striking, long straight shots, and serious finishing instincts
- At his best when he maintains distance and forces opponents into reactive exchanges where his speed shines
DFS Perspective: Turner is the preferred DFS play. His length, power, and aggressive striking put him in a perfect position to exploit Barboza's defensive aging and susceptibility to pressure. Barboza is always live with body kicks and counters, giving him sneaky GPP appeal, but Turner's youth, reach, and explosive offense provide the higher DFS ceiling. Expect Turner to walk Barboza down, land the cleaner shots, and push for a finish.
UFC 323 Pick: Turner
Ibo Aslan (14-3-0) v. Iwo Baraniewski (6-0-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-3 (14 KO/TKO)
- Physically imposing with real knockout power, but often hesitant to pull the trigger
- Can freeze in extended striking exchanges and allow opponents to dictate pace and pressure
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6-0 (4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Aggressive pressure striker who builds momentum as the fight progresses
- Confident in exchanges and more willing to engage, especially when sensing hesitation from his opponent
DFS Perspective: Baraniewski is the preferred DFS play. Aslan's talent is real, but his hesitancy makes him risky in DFS, where volume and aggression matter. Baraniewski's forward pressure, willingness to trade, and finishing instincts give him multiple scoring paths, especially if he forces Aslan backwards and keeps him reacting instead of initiating. Expect Baraniewski to control tempo, land the cleaner shots, and capitalize on any passive stretches from Aslan.
UFC 323 Pick: Baraniewski
Mansur Abdul-Malik (8-0-1) v. Antonio Trocoli (12-5-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 80" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-0-1 (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Fast-rising prospect with powerful wrestling, heavy top pressure, and clean, efficient striking
- Excellent at dictating pace and overwhelming opponents physically; rarely gives opponents room to breathe
- Height: 6'6" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-5 (3 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Tall, long grappler with sneaky submissions, but extremely hittable and slow to react defensively
- Has struggled against strong wrestlers who can get inside his reach and impose physicality
DFS Perspective: Malik is the preferred DFS play and profiles as one of the safest options on the slate. His wrestling, athleticism, and top control should allow him to dominate Trocoli from start to finish. Trocoli's size and submission game give him minor GPP dart-throw potential, but Malik's pressure and physical advantages make this feel like a layup spot. Expect Malik to dictate every phase of the fight, rack up takedowns and control time, and likely secure a finish for a strong DFS score.
UFC 323 Pick: Abdul-Malik
Muhammad Naimov (13-3-0) v. Mairon Santos (16-1-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-3 (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 5 decisions)
- High-pressure fighter with strong wrestling, relentless forward movement, and solid top control
- Thrives when he can dictate pace and force opponents onto the back foot, mixing strikes into level changes seamlessly
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-1 (8 KO/TKO, 8 decisions)
- Dynamic striker with good power and creativity on the feet
- Dangerous early, but can be frustrated and slowed when opponents pressure consistently or drag him into grappling exchanges
DFS Perspective: Naimov is the preferred DFS play. His wrestling, pace, and ability to force Santos into reactive exchanges give him multiple scoring avenues, takedowns, control time, and attritional damage. Santos' striking offers GPP knockout potential, but Naimov's pressure and physicality should allow him to dictate the fight. Expect Naimov to smother Santos against the cage, work his wrestling, and secure a strong DFS total.
UFC 323 Pick: Naimov
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
