This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 312 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC 312 takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $500k UFC 312 Special with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight Championship
(C) Dricus Du Plessis (22-2-0) v. Sean Strickland (29-6-0)
DK Salaries: Du Plessis ($8,600), Strickland ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Du Plessis (-205), Strickland (+170)
These two met a little over a year ago in a Fight of the Night in which du Plessis won via split decision. He took Sean's title in the process. I thought Strickland deserved the call, but it was razor-close.
DDP has defended his belt once since then, submitting Israel Adesanya in August. Dricus didn't look all that good in that fight prior to the stoppage and likely would have been down 3-1 heading into the final frame. Yet, as we have seen from du Plessis countless times in the past, he has the ability to fight a hard 25 minutes despite always appearing to be visibly exhausted.
Strickland rebounded from the setback to take a split decision from Paulo Costa in June. The fight was nowhere near as close as the "split decision" term would lead you to believe. Sean did what he usually does, working behind his jab and constantly pushing forward in what was a 15-minute kickboxing match. The result was never in doubt despite the complete incompetence of one judge.
I see no reason to believe this won't be a carbon copy of the first fight between the two.
Strickland got the better of the stand-up exchanges that night, which isn't surprising because he's the more polished, technical striker. Dricus may have more pure power, but Sean can take a beating about as well as any man on the roster, which allows him to be uber-aggressive and constantly pressure his opposition. It's what he did in the first fight, it's what he did to Costa and it's what he did to Adesanya when he originally won the title back in September 2023.
Sean has allowed a grand total of seven takedowns in his last 14 fights, and six of the seven came in the first bout against du Plessis. Dricus shot 11 times that evening, connecting on at least one in three of the five rounds. That said, Strickland did a pretty good job off of his back. He allowed a grand total of just 2:08 worth of control time, so it's not as if DDP was able to consistently maximize his positional advantage.
In terms of significant strikes, Strickland got the better of the action in four of the five rounds. Du Plessis followed a near-identical script against Adesanya, relying entirely on his grappling game to turn the tide of the fight.
It's a strength of his and an area in which he's better than Strickland, but are we entirely confident he'll be able to have that same level of success this time around with his grappling game? I'd take Strickland in a prolonged kickboxing match all day long.
This line has heavily been trending in DDP's direction in recent days. He opened as roughly a -130 favorite and it's now north of -200. That's too high. I like Strickland's chances if he's able to remain upright, and while Dricus' constant ability to somehow find a way to emerge victorious is impressive and legitimate, this seems like a spot to zig when everyone else is zagging.
THE PICK: Strickland
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Co-Main Event - Women's Strawweight Championship
(C) Zhang Weili (25-3-0) v. Tatiana Suarez (11-0-0)
DK Salaries: Zhang ($8,000), Suarez ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Zhang (-105), Suarez (-110)
Set to turn 36 years of age in August, Zhang will be making her third title defense since winning the belt from Carla Esparza back in November 2022. The first two -- against Yan Xiaonan and Amanda Lemos -- weren't remotely competitive. Zhang has been essentially flawless throughout her UFC run. Her two defeats came in back-to-back fights against Rose Namajunas, one via a fluky head kick and the other via split decision. The age is a concern, but if she can get by Suarez, there's reason to believe she can continue to hold the belt for an extended period of time in a thin division.
An elite-level wrestler and undefeated in 11 pro fights, Suarez certainly would have fought for the title long ago had it not been for illness and injury. She's competed under the UFC banner just seven times despite closing in on nine years with the company. Suarez's best victory, by far, was a May 2018 first-round submission of Alexa Grasso which aged absolutely beautifully. She also has victories over Esparza and Jessica Andrade, although there's zero question Zhang has faced the consistently better competition.
Zhang is a legitimate all-around threat. She has real power for the division, is an excellent submission specialist and has high-end durability. She's also an underrated wrestler, averaging 2.51 takedowns per 15 minutes. In a division in which most every woman has a significant hole, Zhang appears to be the one exception.
On the flip side, Suarez is entirely reliant on the takedown for success. She's gotten each of seven UFC opponents to the mat at least twice. Her 65 percent takedown accuracy is the highest in UFC women's strawweight history. Not only is Tatiana exceptionally skilled in that area, but she's also very, very strong, and that gives her the ability to complete her shots in the rare instances in which her technique isn't perfect.
Suarez is smothering from top position. I'd like to see her unleash her ground-and-pound a bit more frequently, but she doesn't give her opponents any room to breathe from the bottom.
Zhang's takedown defense -- like the rest of her game -- is strong, but not flawless. Yan got her to the mat three times. Esparza once, and Namajunas twice in their second fight.
If you're taking Suarez to win this fight, you're assuming she is going to win at least three rounds on the strength of wrestling and control time. I'd be surprised if the fight didn't go the distance. That feels like a dangerous proposition. Yes, Tatiana has a massive advantage in that area, but I think it's a safe bet to say Zhang is better most everywhere else. I think the champion has more ways to win, and that's what I'm looking to back in a bout which projects to be extremely close.
THE PICK: Zhang
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Heavyweight
Justin Tafa (7-4-0, 1NC) v. Tallison Teixeira (7-0-0)
DK Salaries: Tafa ($7,800), Teixeira ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Tafa (+115), Teixeira (-135)
Do not adjust your screens. Yes, this fight is third from the top on a Pay-Per-View.
Tafa has been with the UFC for more than five years now and the results have been entirely mediocre. He's 4-4 (1NC) in nine fights with the company, with the wins coming over Austen Lane, Parker Porter, Harry Hunsucker and Juan Adams. Tafa is just 31 years of age, which theoretically gives him some runway at heavyweight, but he has zero offensive capabilities beyond his power, and the odds of him going on a prolonged winning streak are next to none.
Teixeira emerged on the scene in September with a 1:57 knockout win on Dana White's Contender Series. The 25-year-old Brazilian has seven pro fights under his belt, that one included, and has won each via first-round knockout. He has yet to face a notable opponent, and it's possible, if not probable, that Tafa will be the best guy he has seen to date.
The most notable thing about this fight is Teixeira's size advantage. He's 6-foot-7 and will enter with a whopping nine-inch reach edge. At just 6-foot, Tafa is undersized for the division. You don't want to be giving up that much size when it's clear as day that both men will be swinging for the bleachers with every single shot they throw.
This projects to be one of the least-technical and most obvious fights you will ever see, PPV or otherwise.
Tafa and Teixeira are going to wing bombs at each other and one of them is going to crumble. Sooner rather than later.
Tafa is going to have the crowd behind him, and Teixeira may be a total fraud, but I'm 100 percent certain that Justin brings zero upside to the table. Teixeira, theoretically, may bring more than that. We just don't know yet.
I try to fade both Tafa brothers whenever possible, and this seems like another good spot to do so. Teixeira's price is fine, even for a knockout-or-bust game plan. He's the pick, but you're never going to feel great about it considering how this fight is certain to play out.
THE PICK: Teixeira
Light Heavyweight
Jimmy Crute (12-4-1) v. Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Crute ($7,700), Bellato ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Crute (+135), Bellato (-165)
Continuing the theme of odd booking decisions for this card, Crute hasn't fought since July 2023 and hasn't won a fight since October 2020. He's 0-3 (1NC) in his past four bouts. His February 2023 draw against Alonzo Menifield aged pretty well, but the only reason he didn't lose that fight is because Menifield was deducted a point for repeated fence grabs. The two rematched less than five months later and Alonzo won via second-round submission. It's a near-certainty Crute will be sent packing if he comes up short here.
Our exposure to Bellato is extremely minimal. He first appeared on Dana White's Contender Series in September of 2022 and was knocked out by Vitor Petrino. For the record, he was also knocked out by Petrino on the regional scene. He got another chance in October 2023 against Murtaza Taalha Ali and won via knockout. Bellato carried that momentum into his official UFC debut in December 2023, knocking out Ihor Potieria, one of the weakest fighters on the roster. Crute, even at this stage of his career, projects as a stiffer test than Potieria.
This projects as a stand-up brawl despite the fact both men have four career wins via submission. Belloto in particularly has proven to be a ridiculously aggressive fighter. He wants to push forward and wing bombs and let the chips fall where they may. It may not be the worst strategy in the world considering two of Crute's last three defeats have come via knockout.
The numbers are a bit misleading, but Crute is very quietly averaging 4.84 takedowns per 15 minutes. That's elite-level production, but it's almost certainly not sustainable.
Eight of those takedowns came in a February 2020 fight against Michal Oleksiejczuk and six came in the first Menifield fight. In the second Menifield fight, Crute went 1-for-5. Bellato has yet to be taken down in his UFC career, so we have zero idea how effective his get-up game is.
This is a tough pick. The price on Bellato seems a tad high given how unproven he is, but Crute looks like a full fade until further notice despite the fact he has the home field advantage. I'm going to take the Brazilian and hope Jimmy isn't able to rack up another notable amount of control time in order to grind out a decision.
THE PICK: Bellato
Welterweight
Jake Matthews (20-7-0) v. Francisco Prado (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Matthews ($8,800), Prado ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Matthews (-220), Prado (+180)
Matthews was universally viewed as one of the top prospects in the sport earlier in his career, but it's simply never come together for him. He'll be 31 years of age in August and has alternated wins and losses in his last seven fights. If that trend holds, he's in trouble Saturday. The best win of Matthews' career was a February 2018 unanimous decision over Li Jingliang. Other than that, he's beat up lesser fighters and often put forth mediocre performances, even in victories.
Prado has theoretical long-term upside simply because he won't turn 23 years of age until June, but other than that, it's difficult to get excited about a guy that has alternated losses and wins in his first three UFC bouts. The defeats were a pair of unanimous decisions against Daniel Zellhuber and Jamie Mullarkey, and the win was a knockout over Ottman Azaitar, who has lost three in a row via stoppage and is likely looking at a release. The good news is that Prado is young enough to make significant improvements each and every time out. Whether or not that actually happens remains to be seen.
Matthews is a big guy, and he fights physically. I've never been all that impressed with his stand-up game, but he's a reasonably effective grappler with the ability to pick up a couple well-timed takedowns. The last part would seem to be key here given Prado is a pure boxer.
Prado lost his fight to Mullarkey because he allowed three takedowns on four attempts. Those three successful tries turned into 4:47 worth of control time. Mullarkey has terrible stand-up defense and highly questionable durability, so he was very smart to go that route. I think Matthews should employ a similar game plan.
Prado put up 90 significant strikes in his lost to Zellhuber. Yes, that was a 15-minute kickboxing match, and Zellhuber has no grappling to speak of, but Francisco is dangerous if you let him stand in front of you and get in a rhythm.
Matthews is entirely untrustworthy, and I'm worried he's going to want to put on a show in his native Australia, but the grappling advantage is real, and I think he can win this fight if he's smart enough to lean on the wrestling. I still don't feel confident that's the route he will take.
THE PICK: Matthews
OTHER BOUTS
Featherweight
Jack Jenkins (13-3-0) v. Gabriel Santos (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Jenkins ($7,300), Santos ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Jenkins (+190), Santos (-230)
THE PICK: Santos
Light Heavyweight
Tom Nolan (8-1-0) v. Slava Borshchev (8-4-1)
DK Salaries: Nolan ($7,900), Borshchev ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Nolan (+120), Borshchev (-140)
THE PICK: Nolan
Women's Flyweight
Cong Wang (6-1-0) v. Bruna Brasil (10-4-1)
DK Salaries: Cong ($9,400), Brasil ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Cong (-440), Brasil (+340)
THE PICK: Cong
Bantamweight
Colby Thicknesse (7-0-0) v. Aleksandre Topuria (5-1-0)
DK Salaries: Thicknesse ($6,900), Topuria ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Thicknesse (+350), Topuria (-455)
THE PICK: Topuria
Lightweight
Rong Zhu (25-6-0) v. Kody Steele (7-0-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Zhu (+180), Steele (-220)
THE PICK: Steele
Welterweight
Jonathan Micallef (7-1-0) v. Kevin Jousset (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Micallef ($7,200), Jousset ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Micallef (+195), Jousset (-240)
THE PICK: Micallef
Lightweight
Quillan Salkilld (7-1-0) v. Anshul Jubli (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Salkilld ($9,600), Jubli ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Salkilld (-575), Jubli (+425)
THE PICK: Salkilld
Flyweight
Hyun Sung Park (9-0-0) v. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Park ($8,700), Tumendemberel ($7,500)
Vegas Odds; Park (-240), Tumendemberel (+195)
THE PICK: Park
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for 312 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
