This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC London takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $500k MMA Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
Main Event - Heavyweight
Curtis Blaydes (16-3-0, 1NC) v. Tom Aspinall (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Blaydes ($7,900), Aspinall ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Blaydes (+110), Aspinall (-130)
Odds to Finish: -330
A perfect 5-0 in the UFC with five stoppage victories (3 knockouts, 2 submissions), Aspinall gets his second straight main event in his native England. Aspinall faced underwhelming competition in his first four bouts with the company, but his submission win over the talented Alexander Volkov showed he's a legitimate threat at heavyweight.
Blaydes remains an unquestioned top-five heavyweight at this point and has been for quite a while. He's lost just three times in 15 UFC bouts. All have come via knockout against a pair of the hardest hitters in the sport today in Francis Ngannou (twice) and Derrick Lewis. Blaydes is still just 31 years of age and in excellent shape so he should have some staying power near the top of the division for the next handful of years.
This fight is fascinating because it features two of the very best athletes in the heavyweight division.
Each of these men rely on their wrestling to be successful. Blaydes averages a ridiculous 6.06 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Aspinall is at 4.07. The difference between the two comes in the form of takedown defense. Aspinall has never been taken down in his UFC career, while Blaydes' takedown defense is a dreadful 33 percent. Curtis better be really careful here in terms of spending long periods of time on his back considering the mat exploits we have seen from Aspinall in the past.
I also think it's important to point out that this fight is scheduled for five rounds. Aspinall's average UFC bout has lasted 2:57. How will he look in the latter stages of the fight if he is unable to get Blaydes out of there right away?
I went back and forth here before settling on Aspinall for two main reasons. First, I think he has more ways to win. Blaydes struggles if his takedowns aren't landing. And second, I really think the crowd will be a factor here. I expect it to be a crazy atmosphere. One guy is from England, the other has to travel halfway around the world to get to the arena.
There's a lot on the line here and it should be a competitive fight.
UFC LONDON PICK: Aspinall
Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Jack Hermansson (22-7-0) v. Chris Curtis (29-8-0)
DK Salaries: Hermansson ($8,000), Curtis ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Hermansson (-110), Curtis (-110)
Odds to Finish: -145
This was originally scheduled to be Hermansson v. Darren Till. The UFC has now tried to book that matchup on multiple occasions and it has fallen through each time. Curtis agreed to step in on just a couple weeks' notice.
Hermansson has been treading water of late, alternating wins and losses in his past half dozen bouts. If that streak holds true Saturday he'll be in good shape considering he is coming off a split decision defeat to Sean Strickland this past February. It doesn't come as much of a surprise that Hermansson has been far less effective as the competition level has risen. He's most certainly a solid middleweight, but I have a difficult time seeing him being a legitimate title contender at any point in the future.
Curtis has been one of the best stories in all MMA the past eight months. He's fought three times since his November 2021 debut, picking up victories over Phil Hawes, Brendan Allen and Rodolfo Vieira. All three of those opponents are talented, and Curtis has quickly proven himself to be a legitimate threat at 185 pounds despite the fact he turned 35 years of age last week.
Hermansson is a tad bit bigger than Curtis, although Chris can match him in terms of activity. The sample size is obviously small, but Curtis is landing 7.23 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 6.28 per minute. The latter number is a major concern and one that will have to be rectified if Curtis is to seriously threaten better competition.
I'm curious to see if Hermansson will attempt to lean on his wrestling game. He averages 1.73 takedowns per 15 minutes, and although Curtis has never been taken down in his brief UFC run, Jack is exceptionally conditioned, and I could see him picking up a takedown late in the fight to secure a decision.
In some ways, Hermansson caught a break here. There's a decent chance Curtis is better than Till at this point, but Till, a native Brit, would have had the entire crowd behind him at London's O2 Arena. Now, Jack can go about his business and not have to worry about that.
Curtis struggled early in the Vieira fight before finding his rhythm in the second half. That was in large part because Vieira tired. Hermansson isn't going to tire, so if Curtis starts slowly, he's in trouble. That's enough to swing me in Jack's favor in what is a pick 'em according to Vegas.
UFC LONDON PICK: Hermansson
Light Heavyweight
Nikita Krylov (27-9-0) v. Alexander Gustafsson (18-7-0)
DK Salaries: Krylov ($8,600), Gustafsson ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Krylov (-190), Gustafsson (+160)
Odds to Finish: -175
I remain hesitant to pull the plug on Gustafsson considering his past body of work, but boy has it been a struggle recently. Gus has lost three in a row and has just a pair of victories dating back to January 2015. He "retired" following a submission loss to Anthony Smith in June 2019, only to return almost exactly a year to the day later, at heavyweight. He was submitted in the first round in that fight by Fabricio Werdum. Gus turned 35 years of age this past January and will be looking at almost two full years on the sidelines by the time he steps into the Octagon on Saturday. It should be noted that Gustafsson had a couple fights scheduled within the past 12 months which fell apart for a variety of reasons.
Krylov is in no better shape, as he has lost two straight and four of six dating back to September 2018. Krylov has had some really impressive performances over the course of two runs with the UFC, but he's typically struggled against what would be termed "better competition." Gustafsson almost certainly doesn't fall into that category these days and he's had struggling defending submissions of late, which is arguably Krylov's greatest strength.
Krylov is a big, physical guy. I'm extremely interested in seeing how he fares against an opponent in Gustafsson who will enter with a two-inch edge in both the height and reach department. Of course, the Gus we have seen of late isn't the guy who nearly stole the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship from Jon Jones in September 2013.
The DK salaries and Vegas odds here seem too lopsided in Krylov's favor. Yes, he should probably be favored all things considered, but it's not as if he has been setting the world on fire lately.
Perhaps I'm just being too stubborn in terms of giving up on Gus, but I think Alex has value here at a discounted price, even if I don't like him outright. The loser of this fight could very well be sent packing with a defeat, so expect both men to leave it all in the Octagon.
UFC LONDON PICK: Krylov
Light Heavyweight
Paul Craig (16-4-1) v. Volkan Oezdemir (17-6-0)
DK Salaries: Craig ($7,700), Oezdemir ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Craig (+140), Oezdemir (-165)
Odds to Finish: -300
This is a weird fight. You have a guy in Craig who has been surging with four straight victories, and another in Oezdemir who has lost two in a row and has zero margin for error, even in a thin 205-pound division.
Take it back a bit further and Craig is undefeated (5-0, 1NC) in his last half-dozen bouts. All five of the victories have come via stoppage, although I still think it's more smoke and mirrors as opposed to something that is sustainable over the long-term. For one, Craig will be 35 years of age in late November. Yes, he's insanely tough, but virtually all of his offense is submission based despite the fact he has picked up a couple knockouts of late. He could walk away tomorrow and his UFC run would have to be considered an overwhelming success.
Oezdemir got another opportunity with the company despite a three-fight losing streak from January 2018 to March 2019. He responded with back-to-back solid performances in wins over Ilir Latifi (KO) and Aleksandar Rakic (split), but Oezdemir has since lost back-to-back fights to current UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jiri Prochazka and top contender Magomed Ankalaev. I'm willing to give Oezdemir a pass on those two defeats because of the competition level he was facing, but I still don't expect much from him moving forward.
Volkan's issue is that he swings for the bleachers with every punch he throws and has no means of generating any secondary offense. If those power punches aren't landing or his chin fails him, he has no chance of winning. That would seem to be a particularly poor game plan going up against an opponent in Craig who has proven to be remarkably durable on countless occasions. I tend to avoid one-dimensional brawlers if possible because their margin for error is miniscule.
These seems like a prime buy-low spot for Craig. Yes, he's giving up a ton of power to Volkan, but Paul's ground game is the greatest weapon either man possess in the bout, and I like his chances to hang around and eventually pull out a victory, especially at such a discount price.
UFC LONDON PICK: Craig
Other Bouts
Lightweight
Paddy Pimblett (18-3-0) v. Jordan Leavitt (10-1-0)
DK Odds: Pimblett ($8,900), Leavitt ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Pimblett (-255), Leavitt (-215)
Odds to Finish: -300
UFC LONDON PICK: Leavitt
Women's Flyweight
Molly McCann (12-4-0) v. Hannah Goldy (6-2-0)
DK Salaries: McCann ($9,300), Goldy ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: McCann (-390), Goldy (+320)
Odds to Finish: +175
UFC LONDON PICK: McCann
Lightweight
Mason Jones (11-1-0, 1NC) v. L'udovit Klein (18-4-0)
DK Salaries: TBD
Vegas Odds: Jones (-320), Klein (+265)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC LONDON PICK: Jones
Lightweight
Marc Diakiese (15-5-0) v. Damir Hadzovic (14-6-0)
DK Salaries: Diakiese ($9,100), Hadzovic ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Diakiese (-325), Hadzovic (+270)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC LONDON PICK: Diakiese
Featherweight
Nathaniel Wood (17-5-0) v. Charles Rosa (14-7-0)
DK Salaries: Wood ($9,400), Rosa ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Wood (-520), Rosa (+410)
Odds to Finish: +140
UFC LONDON PICK: Wood
Featherweight
Makwan Amirkhani (17-7-0) v. Jonathan Pearce (12-4-0)
DK Salaries: Amirkhani ($7,500), Pearce ($8,700)
Vegas Odds; Amirkhani (+175), Pearce (-205)
Odds to Finish: -190
UFC LONDON PICK: Pearce
Flyweight
Muhammad Mokaev (7-0-0, 1NC) v. Charles Johnson (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Mokaev ($9,500), Johnson ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Mokaev (-460), Johnson (+370)
Odds to Finish: -195
UFC LONDON PICK: Mokaev
Lightweight
Jai Herbert (11-4-0) v. Kyle Nelson (13-4-0)
DK Salaries: Herbert ($9,000), Nelson ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Herbert (-260), Nelson (+220)
Odds to Finish: -250
UFC LONDON PICK: Herbert
Women's Flyweight
Mandy Bohm (7-1-0, 1NC) v. Victoria Leonardo (8-5-0)
DK Salaries: Bohm ($8,400), Leonardo ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Bohm (-130), Leonardo (+110)
Odds to Finish: +135
UFC LONDON PICK: Leonardo
Welterweight
Claudio Silva (14-3-0) v. Nicolas Dalby (19-4-1, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Silva ($7,400), Dalby ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Silva (+215), Dalby (-255)
Odds to Finish: -115
UFC LONDON PICK: Dalby
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out the RotoWire MMA Betting section for the most up-to-date odds on all fighters.
