This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 106 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Vegas 106 DFS picks are set for Saturday, May 17, with breakdowns of the top fights on DraftKings and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Welterweight
Gilbert Burns (22-8-0) v. Michael Morales (17-0-0)
DK Salaries: Burns ($7,500), Morales ($9,700)
Vegas Odds: Burns (+550), Morales (-800)
These two were scheduled for two prior events before being shifted to this main event of this card. They've known they'd be fighting each other for quite a while.
Burns has lost three fights in a row, four of six, and has just one win dating back to April 2023. Now, those three previously mentioned defeats came against Belal Muhammad (former champ), Jack Della Maddalena (current champ) and Sean Brady (future title challenger). If we go back further, the fourth loss was against Khamzat Chimaev. In other words, Burns -- who will be 39 in July -- could very well be on the downslope of his career and still have more gas left in the tank than recent performances would lead you to believe. He's literally been facing the best of the best for multiple years.
This seems like a reasonable step up in competition for Morales, a legitimate top prospect who is undefeated in five UFC bouts. Morales won't be 26 years of age until late-June. His best UFC wins are over Neil Magny and Jake Matthews. I understand the company's reluctance to toss him in the deep waters right away given his massive long-term potential. If he's as good as many people seem to think he is, he should be able to get by Burns.
The truth of the matter is that Gilbert was never a great striker, and now, in the latter stages of his career, he's a downright liability on the feet. Burns is most effective in a stand-up brawl, but no opponent with legitimate striking abilities is going to fall into that trap.
Burns is still very strong and a wizard on the mat, but his ground-and-pound game is middling. He landed just 27 significant strikes against Della Maddalena despite scoring seven takedowns.
Morales has a massive power edge. He's also sporting a 92 percent takedown defense. I don't see any scenario in which Gilbert is able to spam takedowns together in an attempt to drain the clock.
Sometimes it's really as simple as it seems on paper.
Morales is about 13 years younger, has a massive power edge, and is the better athlete with far more explosiveness. Gilbert's experience isn't going to be able to save him.
I think the UFC recognizes what it has in Morales, and the company went out of its way to give him a very winnable fight against a "name" opponent. I think he rolls, even at the massive price tag.
THE PICK: Morales
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Co-Main Event - Light Heavyweight
Paul Craig (17-9-1) v. Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-1)
DK Salaries: Craig ($6,800), Bellato ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Craig (+390), Bellato (-520)
Speaking of veterans still getting notable fights despite recent struggles, enter Craig. Paul has lost three in a row and five of six. His most recent losing streak came at the hands of Bo Nickal, Caio Borralho and Brendan Allen. Now, the UFC almost certainly agreed to give Craig another fight since he accepted the Nickal bout in November, and to Paul's credit, he managed to go the distance with Bo. It was a weird fight in which Nickal didn't attempt a single takedown, so Craig may not deserve as much credit as initially thought.
We have much less exposure to Bellato. He was knocked out by Vitor Petrino on Dana White's Contender Series in September 2022 before getting another shot on the show in October 2023 and earning a knockout win. He finished Ihor Potieria in his official company debut in December 2023 before fighting Jimmy Crute to a majority draw this past February.
The very short turnaround for Bellato following the Crute fight is strange. The Brazilian was destroyed in Round 1 of that bout, nearly getting finished. He was lucky to survive. Crute gassed out over the final two rounds and Bellato did enough to earn the majority draw. It was truly a best-case scenario considering how the fight began.
If Craig stands in there and engages Bellato in a stand-up battle like he did against Nickal, he's almost certainly done. Paul has some of the worst overall power in the light heavyweight division's history.
That said, he is crafty and can wrestle in a pinch.
The Vegas line and DK salary on Bellato here is ridiculous and a direct result to the industry's lack of faith in Craig. Rodolfo has never beaten anyone even halfway decent.
Unfortunately for Paul, he's submission-or-bust at this stage of his career. It's going to take a Bellato mistakes in order for him to win the fight. That's most definitely possible, but I'd bet against it.
This feels like a pass entirely.
THE PICK: Bellato
Lightweight
Sodiq Yusuff (13-4-0) v. Mairon Santos (16-1-0)
DK Salaries: Yusuff ($7,900), Santos ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Yusuff (+115), Santos (-135)
Yusuff began his UFC run on fire, picking up wins in six of his first seven bouts with the company before falling on hard times of late. He's lost back-to-back fights to Diego Lopes and Edson Barboza. The Barboza defeat was a five-round main event setback, although both men earned a $50,000 Fight of the Night bonus for their efforts.
Yusuff has been hampered by inactivity of late. He fought once in 2020, once in 2021, twice in 2022, once in 2023 and 2024, and this will be his first bout of 2025. Best I can tell he hasn't had any fights cancelled in the past two years, which makes the limited number of fights all the more strange. Yusuff will be 32 years of age two days after this event takes place.
Santos won Season 32 of The Ultimate Fighter last August with a second-round knockout win over Kaan Ofli. He was pretty clearly the best guy on the show. Santos made his official UFC debut in March and was gifted a split decision win over Francis Marshall in the process. Santos was a +700 underdog on the live line in the dying seconds of the bout. It was a most fortunate result for the 24-year-old Brazilian.
Yusuff's skill set is one that typically doesn't age well. He's a high-volume striker, the type that is willing to eat a shot in order to land two of his own. He's been knocked out twice in his career, including his most recent loss to Lopes. I don't hold that one against him. He absorbed 164 significant strikes against Barboza without folding.
My main concern regarding Santos is a lack of durability. His lone career defeat came against Dan Argueta in LFA via knockout, and he took some massive blows from Marshall in his first UFC bout. He also allowed Marshall to land 3-of-5 takedown attempts. The good news for Santos is that he's young enough that we should see improvements from him on a fight-by-fight basis. We can't say the same about Yusuff.
On the flip side, The good news for Sodiq is that it's highly unlikely he will have to worry about Santos shooting on him. Mairon is a pure stand-up specialist, and that's the type of fight Sodiq can win these days.
I have this handicapped at a pick 'em. Santos is much younger and far more explosive, while I trust the durability of Yusuff a bit more.
On a card that is a) not every deep and b) I like few underdogs outright, Yusuff seems like a reasonable 'dog pick in hopes he can hang around long enough to hopefully crack the facade of the Brazilian.
THE PICK: Yusuff
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Middleweight
Dustin Stoltzfus (16-6-0) v. Nursulton Ruziboev (35-9-2, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Stoltzfus ($7,200), Ruziboev ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Stoltzfus (+240), Ruziboev (-300)
Stoltzfus lost three straight from November 2020 to December 2021 and probably should have been released. The UFC granted him another opportunity, and to his credit, he's been better, alternating wins and losses in five bouts since. His two most recent victories, a knockout of Marc-Andre Barriault and a submission of Punahele Soriano have earned Dustin a $50,000 Performance of the Night bonus. Stoltzfus is nothing more than roster depth, but he's not in danger of being let go any time soon.
Ruziboev made a name for himself racking up about a billion finishes on the European regional scene prior to his company arrival. He's gone 3-1 with the UFC, with three knockout wins over lower-level competition and a unanimous decision defeat against Joaquin Buckley. Considering the run Buckley is on at the moment, the fact Ruziboev was able to go the distance with him just a year ago says something.
The power and explosiveness here is entirely on the side of Ruziboev.
I expect him to go out there and seek a quick finish, as he always does. There will almost certainly be some hairy moments for Stoltzfus early on. He has two knockout defeats in 22 career pro bouts, so I wouldn't say he has durability issues by any means, but he's also going up against a guy with 33 career wins via stoppage, including 13 via knockout. The first challenge will be getting past the first three or four minutes.
Dustin's best chance of winning is to get his wrestling game going. He's by no means a stud grappler, but he does average 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Ruziboev was dragged to the mat four times by Buckley. Now, Stoltzfus has nowhere near the brute upper-body strength Joaquin possesses, so he'll have to be crafty with his entries, because Ruziboev has displayed the ability to snatch the neck and put his opposition away in an instant.
Everything feels lined correctly here. Stoltzfus will probably need a ton of control time in order to win a decision, and even if he's able to get Ruziboev down, he'll be in immediate submission danger. Nursulton feels like a guy that will cost us at some point in the future, but I don't think it's here against Dustin.
THE PICK: Ruziboev
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Julian Erosa (31-12-0) v. Melquizael Costa (23-7-0)
DK Salaries: Erosa ($7,500), Costa ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Erosa (+160), Costa (-190)
THE PICK: Erosa
Lightweight
Gabriel Green (11-5-0) v. Matheus Camilo (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Green ($7,600), Camilo ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Green (+185), Camilo (-225)
THE PICK: Camilo
Lightweight
Jared Gordon (20-7-0, 1NC) v. Thiago Moises (19-8-0)
DK Salaries: Gordon ($8,200), Moises ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Gordon (-115), Moises (-105)
THE PICK: Gordon
Women's Bantamweight
Luana Santos (8-2-0) v. Tainara Lisboa (7-2-0)
DK Salaries: Santos ($8,400), Lisboa ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Santos (-160), Lisboa (+135)
THE PICK: Lisboa
Women's Strawweight
Elise Reed (8-4-0) v. Denise Gomes (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Reed ($6,700), Gomes ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Reed (+425), Gomes (-575)
THE PICK: Gomes
Flyweight
Hyun Sung Park (9-0-0) v. Carlos Hernandez (10-4-0)
DK Salaries: Park ($8,500), Hernandez ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Park (-165), Hernandez (+140)
THE PICK: Park
Women's Strawweight
Tecia Pennington (14-7-0) v. Luana Pinheiro (11-4-0)
DK Salaries: Pennington ($9,300), Pinheiro ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Pennington (-355), Pinheiro (+280)
THE PICK: Pennington
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 106 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
