This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 282 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Cameron Saaiman (6-0-0) v. Steven Koslow (6-0-0)
Cameron Saaiman - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 6 wins
Steven Koslow - Height: 5'7" - Reach: N/A – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Koslow has an outside shot with his impressive grappling, but Saaiman looks like the real deal and should take this one. Saaiman can win anywhere the fight goes but will have a massive advantage on the feet.
UFC 282 Pick: Saaiman
Daniel Da Silva (11-4-0) v. Vinicius Salvador (14-4-0)
Daniel Da Silva - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 11 finishes in 11 wins
Vinicius Salvador - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 64" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Da Silva might go down as one of the worst IQ fighters with another loss in the UFC. He has shown a willingness to brawl right out of the gate but tends to put himself in a bad position. I expect Salvador to come out patient and wait for Da Silva to make a mistake and punish him for it. There have been 25 finishes in 25 wins between the two, so someone is likely to go down early.
UFC 282 Pick: Salvador
TJ Brown (16-9-0) v. Erik Silva (9-1-0)
TJ Brown - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 16 wins
Erik Silva - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Brown has been lackluster in his UFC fights and draws a tough matchup this weekend. Silva has won six consecutive fights by first-round finish, and another could be on the way. I expect him to be better everywhere the fight goes and to make quick work of Brown.
UFC 282 Pick: Silva
Billy Quarantillo (16-4-0) v. Alexander Hernandez (13-5-0)
Billy Quarantillo - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
Alexander Hernandez - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Hernandez will have an advantage with power, and the only way I see him winning is by knockout. Billy Q will have a massive edge in volume, and anywhere the fight goes on the mat. I expect him to come out early, shooting for takedowns and controlling Hernandez for three rounds.
UFC 282 Pick: Billy Q
Chris Curtis (29-9-0) v. Joaquin Buckley (15-5-0)
Chris Curtis - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 29 wins
Joaquin Buckley - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: A knockout is likely by one of these guys. Curtis throws more volume but tends to stand flat-footed and can be easy to clip. Buckley is a wild man and throws haymakers with every throw. If Curtis avoids the considerable power of Buckley, he may be too much for him. This is a tight fight, but I will side with the dog.
UFC 282 Pick: Curtis
Edmen Shahbazyan (11-3-0) v. Dalcha Lungiambula (11-5-0)
Edmen Shahbazyan - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins
Dalcha Lungiambula - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 6 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Both fighters are on a three-fight slide, and the loser likely walks after this one. Both have power and could record a knockout, but Shahbazyan should be better everywhere the fight goes. I do not think he should be as big a favorite as he is, but he is the fighter to run with.
UFC 282 Pick: Shahbazyan
Raul Rosas Jr. (6-0-0) v. Jay Perrin (10-6-0)
Raul Rosas Jr. - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 67" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 6 wins
Jay Perrin - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: I cannot say I am entirely sold on the teenage phenom, but he gets a winnable fight against Perrin. Rosas has shown a solid overall fight game and may prove too much for Perrin early. However, Perrin will have the advantage of experience, which may also prove enough. I will side with Rosas, but I would not be surprised if Perrin pulls off the upset.
UFC 282 Pick: Rosas Jr.
Jair Rozenstruik (12-4-0) v. Chris Daukaus (12-5-0)
Jair Rozenstruik - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
Chris Daukaus - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Rozenstruik is a scary striker who could end the fight anytime. He will be waiting for Daukaus to rush in and look to counter with a massive shot to end it early. Daukaus has lost consecutive fights against top-tier fighters and draws another in this matchup. I expect him to avoid the mistakes from the last two fights, steer clear of the power, and dominate with volume to an early finish.
UFC 282 Pick: Daukaus
Bryce Mitchell (15-0-0) v. Ilia Topuria (12-0-0)
Bryce Mitchell - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 15 wins
Ilia Topuria - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Mitchell will have his hands full in this one. Usually, he would have his way with his opponent, chaining takedowns and keeping control on the mat or finding an early submission. However, Topuria has had perfect takedown defense in the UFC, and he can wrestle/grapple himself. He will also have a massive advantage on the feet with volume and power. I expect him to come out on top with another early finish.
UFC 282 Pick: Topuria
Darren Till (18-4-1) v. Dricus Du Plessis (17-2-0)
Darren Till - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 4" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 18 wins
Dricus Du Plessis - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Till is a sniper and could cause issues for Du Plessis if he continues to fight with his hands down. I worry about the volume of Till, as I do not think he will be able to wrestle or keep Du Plessis in the clinch. I expect Du Plessis to come out a bit wild, eat some shots, and possibly get stunned, but then fight his way back and score another knockout win.
UFC 282 Pick: Du Plessis
Alex Morono (22-7-0) v. Santiago Ponzinibbio (28-6-0)
Alex Morono - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 22 wins
Santiago Ponzinibbio - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 21 finishes in 28 wins
DFS Perspective: Since returning from injury, Ponzinibbio has been hesitant and a shell of what he once was. Unless that fighter returns, Morono will piece him up all night. Morono will have an edge in volume and should win by knockout or a volume-based decision. His short camp is my only worry, but I am willing to roll the short-notice fighter.
UFC 282 Pick: Morono
Paddy Pimblett (19-3-0) v. Jared Gordon (19-5-0)
Paddy Pimblett - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 19 wins
Jared Gordon - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Pimblett's rise continues with another step up in competition. If he fights as close as he has been with his hands down, he will find himself in trouble with Gordon's power. Gordon will have an edge on the feet with power and volume but would be wise to avoid any grappling exchanges where Pimblett has the advantage. Gordon is a live dog, but I will continue to side with the Baddy.
UFC 282 Pick: Paddy the Baddy
Jan Blachowicz (29-9-0) v. Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-0)
Jan Blachowicz - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 29 wins
Magomed Ankalaev - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Blachowicz will likely need a knockout to take the belt, as power is the only thing he will have an edge in. Ankalaev is as close to a flawless fighter as you can get. He has elite defense, great power and striking, and an excellent ground game. All signs point to the Russian coming out with some new gold.
UFC 282 Pick: Ankalaev
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our DraftKings MMA preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
