This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC returns to the Apex on Saturday night for UFC Vegas 68, with the card originally set to be in South Korea. This is why the event times are much different than usual, with the main card starting at 1 a.m. ET. In the main event, Derrick Lewis takes on Sergey Spivac at heavyweight.
Below I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Marcin Tybura (23-7) vs. Blagoy Ivanov (19-4)
Marcin Tybura vs. Blagoy Ivanov likely won't be the most exciting fight, but I do like Tybura to win it. I'm surprised he's not a bigger favorite, as I originally predicted he'd be around (-180).
Ivanov has fought just once since May of 2020, and he edged out a controversial decision over Marcos Rogerio de Lima. Prior to that, he lost back-to-back fights to Augusto Sakai and Derrick Lewis. Ivanov's best trait is his durability, as he can take shots and never even get rocked, so this fight will likely go the distance.
I like Tybura, however, as I think he is the better wrestler and grappler, and he should be able to clinch Ivanov against the fence, make it boring and get the win. On the feet, Ivanov is there to be hit, while Tybura will be more active to edge out a decision.
UFC Vegas 68 Best Bet: Marcin Tybura (-135)
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis (26-10) vs. Sergey Spivac (15-3)
In the main event, Derrick Lewis and Sergey Spivac are getting rebooked after their November matchup was canceled on the day of the event. Back in November, I picked Lewis as the underdog, and I'll be staying with that here.
Lewis' chin is no doubt a concern, but Spivac is not a power puncher like Tai Tuivasa or Sergei Pavlovich. Instead, he looks to take down his opponents and use his ground-and-pound to get wins. However, we have seen Lewis use pure power and athleticism to get off his back and keep fights standing, so if he does get taken down, he'll gets back up.
Although Spivac is on a nice run, the level of competition hasn't been very good, while the times he fought true KO artists, he got caught in the first round (see Tom Aspinall and Walt Harris). Give me Lewis at the Apex -- where he's undefeated -- to catch Spivac early.
UFC Vegas 68 Best Bet: Derrick Lewis (+190)
Weight Class: Welterweight
Yusaku Kinoshita (6-1) vs. Adam Fugitt (8-3)
Yusaku Kinoshita is making his UFC debut and comes in with a lot of hype after an incredible KO victory on the Contender Series. Fugitt, meanwhile, is 0-1 in the UFC, losing by third-round TKO to Michael Morales in a fight he took on short notice. He now gets another tough opponent.
Both Kinoshita and Fugitt throw a ton of volume, but Fugitt's striking defense leaves a lot to be desired, as Morales was able to tag him a ton. Kinoshita should be able to keep this one standing and just pick apart Fugitt, despite giving up six inches of reach. His power is legitimate, and I do think he will KO Fugitt. However, I will play it safer and just take him to win inside the distance at +100, as we have seen Kinoshita get some submissions.
UFC Vegas 68 Best Bet: Yusaku Kinoshita ITD (+100)
Weight Class: Women's Flyweight & Light Heavyweight
Ji Yeon Kim (9-6-2) vs. Mandy Bohm (7-2)
Da Un Jung (15-3-1) vs. Devin Clark (13-7)
For my parlay, I'm taking Kim and Jung to get their hands raised over Bohm and Clark, respectively.
Kim is on a four-fight losing skid and is just 1-5 in her last six, but she has been competitive in those scraps. Bohm, meanwhile, is 0-2 in the UFC, and to me, isn't UFC-caliber. Kim is solid on the feet, as she lands 5.79 significant strikes per minute compared to Bohm's 2.93. Bohm, meanwhile, has a striking defense of 58 percent, as she absorbs 4.2 significant strikes per minute. Although both Kim and Bohm are there to be hit, Kim's volume will be the difference here, as she will cruise to a decision.
In the co-main event, I like Jung to out-strike Clark and likely find a stoppage to cash the parlay. Jung is coming off a KO loss to Dustin Jacoby, but Clark is not the level of striker that Jacoby is. Instead, he looks to out-wrestle his opponents and grind out a decision. However, I don't think he will be able to get Jung down, and on the feet, Jung is much better and will eventually catch Clark and get a TKO win.
UFC Vegas 68 Best Bet: Ji Yeon Kim & Da Un Jung parlay (-103)
UFC Vegas 68 Best Bets:
Here is a recap of my best bets for this weekend's UFC Vegas 68 event:
- Marcin Tybura (-135)
- Derrick Lewis (+190)
- Yusaku Kinoshita ITD (+100)
- Ji Yeon Kim & Da Un Jung parlay (-103)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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