This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC is back to hosting a Super Bowl weekend card as UFC Vegas 18 goes down on February 6 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
In this new series of articles, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog pick, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay I like. All lines are taken from William Hill online sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Diego Ferreira (17-2) vs. Beneil Dariush (19-4-1)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Diego Ferreira vs. Beneil Dariush has all the making of being an absolute war and the Fight of the Night.
Both Ferreira and Dariush are darkhorses in the lightweight division, and they are actually rematching after Dariush won the first fight in 2014 by decision. However, Ferreira was not at Fortis MMA yet, and he took that fight on short notice.
In this fight, I like Ferreira to get his hand raised. He is the much better striker, as he lands 5.07 strikes per minute while Dariush only lands 3.98. Although both men are good grapplers, Ferreira has a 27 percent and Dariush has a 32 percent takedown accuracy, so I don't expect their grappling to have much of a factor here.
I also still have questions about Dariush's chin, as he was rocked by Drakkar Klose, who isn't a power puncher by any means. I'm not sure if Ferreira will get a KO win, but I do expect him to outwork Dariush on the feet to win a decision if he doesn't get the KO.
The play: Diego Ferreira (-125)
Alexandre Pantoja (22-5) vs. Manel Kape (15-4)
Weight Class: Flyweight
For any MMA fan who only follows the UFC, you are in for a treat in getting to watch Manel Kape fight this Saturday.
Kape is the former RIZIN FF bantamweight champion and coming off a KO win over Kai Asakura who was the one who dethroned Kyoji Horiguchi. Although Kape dropping down to flyweight does give me concerns, all signs point to his power still being there. He also has a good output which will be the difference-maker here.
In Alexandre Pantoja's last two losses, he was outstruck by Askar Askarov and Deiveson Figueiredo. Throughout his career, when the Brazilian gets a step up in competition he has lost. When he fights someone ranked lower than him, he has picked up stoppage wins. Kape has never been knocked out in his career. Expect Kape to be the more active fighter, as he lands the heavier shots, and either wins a decision or a late TKO. This also could be one of the last times we get Kape as an underdog as the casual bettors will finally know who he is.
The play: Manel Kape (+110)
Michael Johnson (19-16) vs. Clay Guida (35-20)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Michael Johnson to win by decision against Clay Guida is one of my favorite plays on this card.
Currently, Johnson is a -227 favorite and the fight going the distance is -200. However, Johnson to win by decision is +138 which I don't understand why.
First off, Guida is very durable and has only lost by KO/TKO seven times. However, he has not been knocked out since Brian Ortega did so in 2016. Although he has been finished in two of his three losses since then, those have come by submission, and Johnson is not known for his grappling.
Johnson, on the other hand, has gone to the scorecards in three of his last five fights, and the two he didn't he was knocked out and lost by submission. Guida isn't much of a finisher and instead is a volume striker. Yet, Johnson is the better striker and should do enough to win a decision.
Pick: Michael Johnson by DEC (+138)
Timur Valiev (16-2) vs. Martin Day (8-5) & Cody Stamann (19-3-1) vs. Askar Askar (11-1)
Weight Classes: Featherweight
Both Timur Valiev and Cody Stamann are two of the bigger favorites on the card, but parlaying them together gets you a much better number.
Currently, Valiev is -345 and Stamann is -400, but parlaying them together gets you around -165, which is a much better price to pay.
Although Valiev lost his UFC debut, which is now a no-contest, he showed off his striking and wrestling, which will be the path to victory. Day is taking this fight on just days' notice and has a 76 percent takedown defense. He also has struggled against grapplers as evidence by his losses to Anderson dos Santos and Davey Grant. Valiev will likely shoot early and often and eventually tap out Grant.
Stamann, meanwhile, is one of the best wrestlers in the bantamweight division and has been preparing to face Merab Dvalishvili. Stamann averages above three takedowns per fight, and although Askar is a good grappler in his own right, Stamann is much better. The 13th-ranked bantamweight is also very durable and doesn't get caught in bad positions when he shoots. Askar's cardio is also a concern, and I like Stamann to grind out a decision win and cash the parlay.
