This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC returns after a weekend off for UFC Vegas 47 which goes down on Saturday, February 5 at the UFC Apex. In the main event, top-10 middleweights collide as Jack Hermansson takes on Sean Strickland.
In this series of articles, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog pick, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay I like. All lines are taken from DraftKings online sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Marc-Andre Barriault (13-4) vs. Chidi Njokuani (20-7)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Marc-Andre Barriault will welcome long-time Bellator veteran Chidi Njokuani to the Octagon, but I'm backing the Canadian to get the win in the pick'em fight.
Barriault has turned his career around after starting out his UFC run 0-3 but has rallied off two wins (note: it could be three, as he beat Oskar Piechota, it was overturned to a No Contest). In his last two fights, Barriault has shown off much-improved cardio and striking, but against Njokuani, his wrestling will be the key difference.
Njokuani struggled against grapplers in Bellator, and I expect Barriault to use his grappling to control the fight and help win rounds to win a decision.
The Play: Marc-Andre Barriault (-115)
Steven Peterson (19-9) vs. Julian Erosa (26-9)
Weight Class: Featherweight
The odds are way off on this fight, so I have to back Steven Peterson. To me, Julian Erosa should only be about a -150 favorite.
The biggest knock on Erosa is his chin, as he has been knocked out in five of his nine losses and has been knocked down in four of his last five fights, while he nearly got dropped against Nate Landwehr.
Peterson has KO power, but he is also super durable, so I expect him to be able to take Erosa's best shots and close the distance to eventually find the KO shot. The value is too high on Peterson to not take a shot.
The Play: Steven Peterson (+235)
Hakeem Dawodu (12-2-1) vs. Mike Trizano (9-1)
Weight Class: Featherweight
For my prop, I'm backing Hakeem Dawodu to win by decision.
Dawodu vs. Trizano has Fight of the Night written all over it, as both men are very durable and are great strikers. However, Dawodu is the better striker, as he lands 4.72 significant strikes and absorbs 2.39, while Trizano only lands 3.22 and absorbs 2.36.
The volume and output of Dawodu will be the difference-maker, as he will be able to land the better strikes and win a decision. The moneyline is a good bet as well, but Dawodu by decision is the best way to go. Trizanow was finished by Grant Dawson, but Dawson took him down and is a good grappler, and Dawodu simply isn't. Meanwhile, in Dawodu's seven UFC fights, five have gone to decision, and he has won four of his five UFC fights by decision.
The Play: Hakeem Dawodu by decision (+120)
Sean Strickland (24-3) vs. Jack Hermansson (22-6) &
Alexis Davis (20-11) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (9-5-1)
Weight Class: Middleweight and Women's Bantamweight
For my parlay, I like Sean Strickland to defeat Jack Hermansson in the main event and Alexis Davis to beat Julija Stoliarenko.
Strickland is a terrible stylistic matchup for Hermansson, as we have seen Hermansson struggle against pressure fighters in Jared Cannonier and Marvin Vettori. Meanwhile, the Swede's best path to victory is to submit Strickland, while the American has 82 percent takedown defense while Hermansson only has 36 percent takedown accuracy. Strickland will be able to keep this standing, and his pace and boxing will be too much for Hermansson.
On the other leg, Davis gets a very favorable matchup against Stoliarenko. A few knocks on Stoliarenko are her volume and takedown defense, while Davis lands 4.55 significant strikes per minute and has a takedown accuracy of 42 percent. Davis is just better everywhere, plus is durable enough to be able to grind out a decision win.
The Play: Strickland and Davis parlay (+113)
