This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC returns to Madison Square Garden in New York City for a solid UFC 295 on Saturday, November 11. The main event sees Jiri Prochazka take on Alex Pereira for the vacant light heavyweight title.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Lightweight
Nazim Sadykhov (9-1) vs. Slava Borshchev (7-3)
Nazim Sadykhov is a perfect 2-0 in the UFC, and I like him in this spot against Slava Borshchev, who has a clear weakness with his takedown defense.
Borshchev has a takedown perfect with respect to his accuracy. Although he hasn't shot for many takedowns in his two fights, it's because he hasn't needed to, but I predict he will go back to his wrestling here.
Borschev is a solid striker, as he's the kickboxing teacher at Team Alpha Male. Although Sadykhov is a good striker himself, I expect him to just take down Borschev at will and win a one-sided decision that way.
UFC 295 Best Bet: Nazim Sadykhov (-130)
Weight Class: Featherweight
Diego Lopes (22-6) vs. Pat Sabatini (18-4)
Diego Lopes impressed in his debut, as he nearly beat Movsar Evloev on short notice. He then proceeded beat Gavin Tucker in just over 90 seconds. He now faces Pat Sabatini, and I'm surprised that the American is the betting favorite.
On the feet, both Lopes and Sabatini leave a lot to be desired. The Brazilian does throw more volume than Sabatini, which should be the difference here. Meanwhile, on the mat, I believe Lopes is more dangerous and will be able to scramble out of positions.
This will be a close fight, but I think Lopes can grind out a decision win. I believe the oddsmakers got this one wrong, as the Brazilian should be a slight favorite here.
UFC 295 Best Bet: Diego Lopes (-102)
Weight Class: Strawweight
Mackenzie Dern (13-3) vs. Jessica Andrade (24-12)
Mackenzie Dern is getting a very favorable matchup here in Jessica Andrade, who's on a three-fight losing streak and has lost all of them by stoppage.
Andrade hasn't looked like her normal self, and she now is back down to strawweight, where Dern will have a big advantage on the ground. Although Dern doesn't have the best takedowns, she still should be able to push Andrade to the fence and work her down to the ground that way.
Once Dern gets Andrade down, with the way the Dern has looked as of late on the mat, this won't go well for Andrade. I like Dern to get a submission win early in this fight.
UFC 295 Best Bet: Mackenzie Dern by submission (+120)
Weight Class: Feathrweight & Lightweight
Jamall Emmers (19-7) vs. Dennis Buzukja (11-3)
Jared Gordon (19-6 and one No Contest) vs. Mark Madsen (12-1)
For my parlay at UFC 295, I'm backing Jamall Emmers and Jared Gordon to each get the win Saturday.
Opening up the card is a featherweight scrap between Emmers and Dennis Buzukja, and this is a tough style matchup for Buzukja. Emmers is a rangy striker who should be able to piece up Buzukja on the feet. His biggest advantage, however, will be with his wrestling. Buzukja was taken down four times by Sean Woodson, who's a striker, while Emmers is a better wrestler. I expect Emmers to out-wrestle Buzukja for three rounds to win a clear-cut decision.
On the other leg, I'm taking Jared Gordon against Mark Madsen, as this is a favorable matchup for him. Gordon is a great anti-wrestler and can keep this fight standing. On the feet, he is much better than Madsen, who is solely a wrestler, and also has cardio issues.
Gordon should be able to piece up Madsen for three rounds and win a decision, as I believe his takedown defense will hold up.
UFC 295 Best Bet: Jamall Emmers & Jared Gordon parlay (+111)
UFC 295 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC 295 best bets:
- Nazim Sadykhov (-130)
- Diego Lopes (-102)
- Mackenzie Dern by submission (+120)
- Jamall Emmers & Jared Gordon parlay (+111)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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