This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC is in Las Vegas, Nevada for International Fight Week, and its flagship even lands on Saturday, June 29. In the main event, Alex Pereira defends his light heavyweight title in a rematch against Jiri Prochazka.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Welterweight
Ian Garry (14-0) vs. Michael Page (22-2)
Opening up the UFC 303 main card is a fascinating welterweight bout between Ian Garry and Michael Page. Both Garry and Page are counter strikers, which could make it a lackluster fight, as both look to wait each other to make the first move.
While Garry and Page are very similar strikers, Garry is a younger and faster version than Page. Although both primarily do their work on the feet, Garry will also have the grappling advantage if he chooses to wrestle (in Page's debut, Kevin Holland -- a below-average wrestler -- controlled him for over four minutes).
The Irishman is the more active striker, and in a close fight, the volume and wrestling will be the differences that allow Garry to win a decision.
UFC 303 Best Bet: Ian Garry (-142)
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Anthony Smith (37-19) vs. Roman Dolidze (12-3)
Anthony Smith agreed to step up on short notice to face Carlos Ulberg, but Ulberg pulled out and Roman Dolidze stepped up on short notice to move up in weight to face Smith.
Smith is coming off an upset first-round submission over Vitor Petrino but has been up and down. Dolidze, meanwhile, is coming off back-to-back losses in rather lackluster performances.
Dolidze's path to victory is to take Smith down and hold him there. But, his cardio has already been a concern and now he's taking a fight up 20 pounds on a week's notice.
I think Dolidze can get Smith down in the first round, but I expect him to tire out after that, and 'Lionheart' to be able to keep it standing and use his jab to get a decision win here, as he'll win the second and third rounds.
UFC 303 Best Bet: Anthony Smith (+124)
Weight Class: Featherweight
Charles Jourdain (15-7-1) vs. Jean Silva (12-2)
Charles Jourdain takes on Jean Silva in what should be a fun striking fight at featherweight.
Both Jourdain and Silva are durable, which is why I like the over 2.5 rounds in this fight. In Jourdain's last five fights, four have gone the distance. He has also never been knocked out in his UFC tenure, which is the way Silva wins fights.
Silva, meanwhile, did get a first-round finish in his UFC debut, but that was against Westin Wilson, who is known to not have a good chin. In his Contender Series fight, he went the distance against Kevin Vallejos, who is durable.
Both Jourdain and Silva have good chins and will be tough to knock out. This fight should be a stand-up battle, and I think it goes to the distance, but the over 2.5 rounds is a good price to take that instead.
UFC 303 Best Bet: Charles Jourdain-Jean Silva over 2.5 rounds (-135)
Weight Classes: Heavyweight & Middleweight
Martin Buday (13-2) vs. Andrei Arlovski (34-23)
Joe Pyfer (12-3) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (16-7)
For my parlay at UFC 303, I'm taking Martin Buday and Joe Pyfer to get their hands raised.
Buday is taking on Andrei Arlovski, who is 45 years old and is on a three-fight losing streak. Arlovski has not looked good as of late, and the clear path to victory for Buday is to wrestle, as Arlovski has poor takedown defense as of late. Although Buday lost his last fight by knockout, Arlovski doesn't have much KO power anymore, so I like Buday to out-wrestle Arlovski and eventually find a submission win.
To close out the parlay, I'm taking Pyfer to beat Marc-Andre Barriault. Pyfer is coming off a loss to Jack Hermansson in a fight he gassed out, but that was in five rounds, and he clearly won the first two rounds.
With Pyfer being back in a three-round fight, the cardio is no longer a concern, and this is a good spot for him to return to the win column. Pyfer will have a big advantage on the ground with his grappling, as he should be able to get Barriault down and eventually get a submission win like Anthony Hernandez did to him.
UFC 303 Best Bets: Martin Buday & Joe Pyfer parlay (-114)
UFC 303 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC 303 best bets:
- Ian Garry (-142)
- Anthony Smith (+124)
- Charles Jourdain-Jean Silva over 2.5 rounds (-135)
- Martin Buday & Joe Pyfer parlay (-114)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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