This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 82 on Saturday, November 18. In the main event, Brendan Allen takes on Paul Craig at middleweight.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Flyweight
Rafael Estevam (11-0) vs. Charles Johnson (13-5)
Rafael Estevam is making his UFC debut Saturday, and I like him as a slight favorite in this matchup against Charles Johnson.
Estevam is coming off a quality win on the Contender Series last year (so the layoff is a bit of a concern), but he gets Johnson, who has struggled in the UFC. Johnson is 2-3 and has lost back-to-back fights to Cody Durden and Ode Osbourne.
The way to beat Johnson has been via grappling, and that is exactly what Estevam has been good at. The Brazilian will look to get this one to the mat and really test Johnson's 54 percent takedown defense.
I expect Estevam to out-wrestle Johnson for 15 minutes to get the win.
UFC Vegas 82 Best Bet: Rafael Estevam (-142)
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Weight Class: Lightweight
Trey Ogden (16-6) vs. Nikolas Motta (13-5)
For my underdog pick, I'm backing Trey Ogden as a slight underdog against Nikolas Motta.
Neither Ogden nor Motta have been all that impressive in the UFC, and the loser likely get cut from the roster. On the feet, both have negative striking differentials, and neither wrestles all that much, so this likely will be a kickboxing fight for 15 minutes.
Ogden does throw a bit more volume than Motta and has a better chin, while also having a reach advantage. This will be a very close fight on paper, and one that likely goes the distance. In what's effectively a coin flip, I'll back the fighter who throws more volume at plus money.
UFC Vegas 82 Best Bet: Trey Ogden (+105)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Brendan Allen (22-5) vs. Paul Craig (17-6-1)
In the main event of UFC Vegas 82, I'm backing Brendan Allen to get the win and knock out Paul Craig.
Craig made his middleweight debut back in July and knocked out Andre Muniz in a bit of a surprise. He now gets a much tougher matchup in Brendan Allen, who is a top-10 middleweight and someone I think could challenge for the belt one day.
Allen is a fantastic wrestler, so Craig will have a hard time getting him down to the mat. If Craig does pull guard as he does, I expect the American to be able to get out of any submission attempts.
Ultimately, I expect Allen to hurt Craig on the feet, and as he pulls guard, finish him with ground-and-pound strikes in the second or third round.
UFC Vegas 82 Best Bet: Brendan Allen by KO/TKO/DQ (+120)
Weight Classes: Heavyweight & Welterweight
Michael Parkin (7-0-0) vs. Caio Machado (8-1-1)
Michael Morales (15-0) vs. Jake Matthews (19-6)
For my parlay at UFC Vegas 82, I'm backing Michael Parkin and Michael Morales to each get the victory.
Parkin is coming off his UFC debut win over Jamal Pogues in July and is a close friend and training partner of Tom Aspinall, making him someone the UFC will want to build up. Caio Machado, meanwhile, did not look good on the Contender Series, but he got signed anyway because the promotion always needs heavyweights.
Parkin should be able to piece up Machado on the feet while also being the better grappler. I expect Parkin to push Machado up against the fence. Once he extends him into the second and third rounds, Machado will get more tired, and Parkin will get a late finish or a one-sided decision.
For the other leg, I'm backing Michael Morales to get past Jake Matthews. Morales has proven he's a legit prospect at welterweight, and now against Matthews, he should be able to dominate this fight wherever it goes. Matthews has struggled against wrestlers in the past, and Morales can do the same or simply just piece him up for three rounds.
UFC Vegas 82 Best Bet: Michael Parkin & Michael Morales parlay (-141)
UFC Vegas 82 Best Bets:
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC 295 best bets:
- Rafael Estevam (-142)
- Trey Ogden (+105)
- Brendan Allen by KO/TKO/DQ (+120)
- Michael Parkin & Michael Morales parlay (-141)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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