This article is part of our RaceDayScore NASCAR series.
AAA 400 Drive for Autism
Location: Dover, Del.
Course: Dover International Speedway
Format: 1.0-mile oval
Laps: 400
Race Preview
Kyle Busch clicked off another 2016 win last weekend at Kansas Speedway, his first at the track that had been his nemesis in past seasons. This week, the series heads to the 1.0-mile concrete oval of Dover International Speedway where Busch has two previous wins. Jimmie Johnson had been king of the speedway by taking 10 career wins at the track, but stumbled heavily there last fall with a 41st-place finish. While Kyle Busch leads the Chase for the Sprint Cup standings with his three victories, a number of top-tier competitors have yet to score that all-important win. Matt Kenseth's bad luck may be behind him after his solid top-five finish last week, while Martin Truex Jr. and Joey Logano, both winless in 2016, each suffered disappointments. Things are also tight at the bottom of the Chase standings, as Ryan Blaney is fending off Ryan Newman for the 16th and final Chase spot.
Key Stats at Dover International Speedway
• Number of previous races: 92
• Winners from pole: 13
• Winners from top-5 starters: 53
• Winners from top-10 starters: 71
• Winners from 21st or lower starters: 5
• Fastest race: 132.719 mph
Last 10 Dover Winners
2015 fall - Kevin Harvick
2015 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2014 fall - Jeff Gordon
2014 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2013 fall - Jimmie Johnson
2013 spring - Tony Stewart
2012 fall - Brad Keselowski
2012 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2011 fall - Kurt Busch
2011 spring - Matt Kenseth
Dover is a unique circuit for the Sprint Cup teams to tackle. Its concrete surface and high banking can be hard on tires, and drivers particularly like the bottom of the track. Any tire issues will likely spell disaster due to the track's high speeds. As usual, track position on a shorter circuit will prove pivotal in determining the outcome of the race. Since Dover can cause drivers to have problems, it's also important to keep clear of others' mistakes. Getting caught in someone else's accident will end a team's chances for victory. Races so far this season have been characterized by a multitude of mistakes and misfortune, and Sunday's winner at Dover will have to put together a mistake-free run in order to come out on top.
RACE DAY SCORE VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $60K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Kevin Harvick - $12,300
Jimmie Johnson - $12,000
Kyle Busch - $11,900
Brad Keselowski - $11,800
Tier 2 Values
Joey Logano - $11,600
Martin Truex Jr. - $11,400
Denny Hamlin - $10,900
Matt Kenseth - $10,800
Tier 3 Values
Austin Dillon - $10,000
Paul Menard - $10,000
Tony Stewart - $9,900
Aric Almirola - $9,900
Long-Shot Values
A.J. Allmendinger - $9,600
Danica Patrick - $8,800
Casey Mears - $8,400
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($60K Salary Cap)
Kevin Harvick - $12,300
Jimmie Johnson - $12,000
Martin Truex Jr. - $11,400
Danica Patrick - $8,800
David Ragan - $8,000
Cole Whitt - $7,200
The safest option for Dover is to take Kevin Harvick and Johnson, while taking small chances in the other roster slots. Harvick is priced the highest this week by virtue of scoring the most fantasy points among drivers in the last five Dover races. Close behind is Johnson who has 10 track wins. His five-race average at the track is hurt by his 41st-place finish last fall. Still, he won this race last season and is the best at this circuit. Truex Jr. is knocking on the door of victory and could use a strong finish after last week's disappointment. He's a past Dover winner, and the pace he had last week should be a big boost this week. Danica Patrick has never scored a top-10 at Dover but she has performed well at the track. She needs to turn those brief periods of pace into a full race performance this week. BK Racing's David Ragan has led laps in the last two races and scored his best Dover finish of 13th in this race last season. Cole Whitt had a disappointing race in Kansas but has finished better than he started in all but one of his five Dover tries.
Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($60K Salary Cap)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - $11,300
Matt Kenseth - $10,800
Kyle Larson - $10,600
Aric Almirola - $9,900
Tony Stewart - $9,900
Landon Cassill - $7,400
The higher-risk lineup for Dover avoids the favorites for more chances on the better performers so far this season. Dale Earnhardt Jr. leads that category this week. He won at Dover in 2001 and took three top-10s from his last five visits to the track, with no finish lower than 17th. Kenseth is next in line and appears to be one of the most likely to get the next win in 2016. He finished in the top 10 at Dover four of his last five visits and could be the bargain of the week at this price. Kyle Larson has been wonderful at Dover. He has never finished lower than 11th here and had a best finish of third at the track in this race last season. Almirola scored two fifth-place finishes here last year, and Stewart is quickly regaining competitiveness after a 12th-place finish last week in Kansas. Finally, Landon Cassill rounds out the roster. He has finished better than his starting position in every race since Las Vegas and even led 20 laps at Bristol last month.
