Toyota/Save Mart 350
Location: Sonoma, Calif.
Course: Sonoma Raceway
Format: 1.99-mile road course
Laps: 110
NASCAR Toyota/Save Mart 350 Race Preview
The NASCAR Cup Series goes road racing again this week at Sonoma Raceway as Shave van Gisbergen attempts to win back-to-back races. The Trackhouse Racing driver took his second win of the season a week ago on the streets of Chicago and has an opportunity to join Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin as the only drivers to consecutive races this season. Kyle Larson won at Sonoma last season, capturing his second series win at the track after the race started with a flurry of cautions before going yellow free for the entirety of the final stage. Larson led 19 laps that afternoon and became the sixth straight driver to win at Sonoma from a top-10 starting spot. No driver has won starting lower than 12th at the circuit since Martin Truex Jr. won from the 14th position in 2013. This week's Toyota/Save Mart 350 will be the fourth of six road course contests this season as everyone tries to stop Van Gisbergen's train of success.
Key Stats at Sonoma Raceway
- Number of races: 35
- Winners from pole: 6
- Winners from top-5 starters: 18
- Winners from top-10 starters: 26
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 2
- Fastest race: 83.922 mph
Previous 10 Sonoma Winners
2024 - Kyle Larson
2023 - Martin Truex Jr.
2022 - Daniel Suarez
2021 - Kyle Larson
2019 - Martin Truex Jr.
2018 - Martin Truex Jr.
2017 - Kevin Harvick
2016 - Tony Stewart
2015 - Kyle Busch
2014 - Carl Edwards
Unlike the streets of Chicago, Sonoma Raceway is a purpose-built racetrack that snakes through the hills of northern California's wine country. The track is narrow and features many challenging off-camber and blind-apex turns. Despite the track's relative lack of passing opportunities, two specific areas (turns 7 and 11) see significant action due to heavy braking at corner entrance. These are places where use of the bumper can net a driver a position if they are close enough and aggressive enough. Like most road courses, track position and pit strategy are key elements of success. The prerequisite to those keys is having a fast car to begin with, though. Qualifying is a good indicator of success. No driver has started outside of the top 15 and won this race since 2008 and most victors start inside the top 10. Once track position is secured through a top qualifying effort, pit strategy will help teams maximize the advantage. Last year, Kyle Larson was last to pit on the final run to the finish, which gave him fresh tires and maximum grip to climb back to the lead for the win. Saving grip to keep competitors behind in the final miles is likely to be the aim again this season.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Shane van Gisbergen - $12,500
Kyle Larson - $10,500
Tyler Reddick - $10,300
William Byron - $10,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Chase Elliott - $9,800
Ty Gibbs - $9,500
Michael McDowell - $9,300
Christopher Bell - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
AJ Allmendinger - $8,800
Chris Buescher - $8,600
Ross Chastain - $8,400
Kyle Busch - $8,000
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Denny Hamlin - $7,700
Ryan Blaney - $7,500
Joey Logano - $7,200
Ryan Preece - $6,700
NASCAR DFS Picks for the Toyota/Save Mart 350
Chase Elliott - $9,800
Ty Gibbs - $9,500
Chris Buescher - $8,600
Ross Chastain - $8,400
Carson Hocevar - $7,000
Ryan Preece - $6,700
Shane van Gisbergen's talents on road courses command a high price again this week. With two victories under his belt this season, it may not be a bad move to absorb the cost this week, but this lineup presents a different option. Sonoma is a different track than any the series has raced on so far this season, and this will be SVG's first race in the Cup car at the circuit. Sonoma is also very familiar to the Cup regulars who have been racing here for many years. In short, the Cup Series veterans won't be as easily overcome this week as they were at Mexico and Chicago, which may offers fantasy players more value by avoiding SVG this week.
With this in mind, Chase Elliott (DK $9,800, FD $12,000) is a confident Sonoma selection. The former series champ once dominated road courses but has never won at Sonoma. However, he has been returning to form on these tracks and has three top-five finishes from his last four Sonoma tries, including a runner-up result in 2021. With six top-10 finishes from eight starts, and laps led in the last five at this track, Elliott could be one that gives SVG a run for his money this week.
Ty Gibbs (DK $9,500, FD $12,500) should also feature. He was second at Chicago just a week ago and started in the top 10 in both Sonoma series starts. Last year, contact ended his day prematurely, but Gibbs has the road course talent that should regularly result in top-five finishes. He has four Xfinity Series road course wins and a track like Sonoma could be a likely spot for his first Cup Series win.
One driver that has already gone head to head with SVG and come out on top is Chris Buescher (DK $8,600, FD $11,000). His 18th-place finish at Chicago was his first road course finish outside of the top 10 this season. He was seventh at COTA and 10th at Mexico. At Sonoma, since introduction of the current generation of car, Buescher hasn't finished outside of the top five. Last year, despite starting 26th, he finished the race third. Remarkably, Buescher is still a relatively underrated racer on road courses (even after beating SVG at Watkins Glen), which is an advantage for fantasy players until his price starts to match his potential.
There is also value to be had for fantasy rosters in choices like Ross Chastain (DK $8,400, FD $8,500). Chastain is a road course winner at COTA and Sonoma has treated him very well, too. With four top-10 finishes from five Sonoma series starts, Chastain should be expected to finish toward the front again. Last season, he scored his career-best finish at the track of fifth, which was his fourth consecutive top-10 at the circuit.
Speaking of potential, Carson Hocevar (DK $7,000, FD $7,000) has been showing a lot of it this season. Last week, he put his car third on the grid at the street course but made a mistake early in the race that ended his day. Mexico was also a rough race for him with numerous on-track incidents, but his 13th-place finish at COTA in March lends credence to the road course potential we saw a flash of last week. Last year he qualified 13th and finished 17th in this race, and a top-15 should be within his reach Sunday, but he is likely the riskiest selection in the lineup this week.
Ryan Preece (DK $6,700, FD $6,200) should offer more confidence, though. In his last two Sonoma starts, he finished 13th and 18th despite starting 22nd and 30th. He qualified inside the top 10 last week and finished seventh and finished 15th at Mexico. Preece has shown improvement on road courses this season and should offer top-15 potential at Sonoma this week despite being the least costly driver of our choices.
NASCAR Best Bets for the Toyota/Save Mart 350
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 4:00 PM ET Friday
Race Winner - Shane van Gisbergen +130, Chase Elliott +1400
Top-Five Finish - Ty Gibbs +150
Top-10 Finish - Denny Hamlin +275
Group Winner - Ross Chastain +240, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe
Winning Manufacturer - Ford +650
After two victories this season, Shane van Gisbergen is beginning to approach the point where wagerers may want to grab odds at +130 for the win. However, anything can happen in NASCAR and Sonoma is a different circuit than Mexico and Chicago. While SVG is certainly the worthy favorite, such low odds remain tough to swallow for now.
A better bargain would be Chase Elliott. The Hendrick Motorsports driver has three top-fives from his last four Sonoma starts and has been approaching a return to wins on road courses, too. He has never won at this track, but his third-place finish at Mexico shows what he may be capable of this weekend. Elliott is likely to return to Victory Lane at a road course at some point and Sonoma is a track where his experience and past success gives him a better chance than usual versus Van Gisbergen.
Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Ty Gibbs and Denny Hamlin both offer decent odds for top finishes. Gibbs has plenty of road course potential and is on a nice run of form leading into this week's race. He was second a week ago at Chicago and finished 11th at Mexico after qualifying inside the top five. Gibbs has shown top-five speed on road courses this season and needs to go for the win to get into the playoffs. Denny Hamlin doesn't have that same playoff need, but he is also a regular feature in the top 10 at road courses. Prior to having DNFs in the last two Sonoma visits, Hamlin finished in the top 10 at the track five of the prior six times. He also has four top-fives from the last five races heading into the weekend.
Another attractive wager is Ross Chastain as group winner. Chastain has a habit of consistently finishing well at certain tracks, and Sonoma Raceway is one of those. In five series tries, Chastain finished in the top 10 four times, including once from the 29th starting spot. The only blemish on his Sonoma resume is his first Cup visit in 2019 when he qualified 37th and finished 33rd. Since then, he has been a top-10 machine. This track is also a good one for Kyle Busch, but Chastain's Sonoma consistency makes him the best option in this grouping.
Lastly, Chevrolet is pulling very low odds due for this week's win due to having Shane van Gisbergen and others behind the wheel. However, Sonoma doesn't have a favored manufacturer. The last time Ford won at the track was with Kevin Harvick in 2017, but Ford drivers finished second and third last year, fourth and fifth in 2023, and second through sixth in 2022. There is no reason a Ford-powered driver can't win at this track this weekend, and the manufacturer's significantly better odds make it worth a small gamble.
