Coke Zero Sugar 400 Preview: Superspeedway High Stakes

We continue racing under the lights this week. The NASCAR Cup Series travels back to where the season started this weekend at Daytona International Speedway for the Coke Zero Sugar 400. The second Daytona race of the season was historically held July 4th week every year. However, a few seasons ago NASCAR shook up the schedule and has moved this thrilling night race to the ultimate race of NASCAR's regular season. This event will be the cutoff to get into the playoffs, NASCAR's postseason. The added urgency to improve one's playoff position or to make it into the field will ratchet the pressure up to 11 on a 10-scale this Saturday night. 

Unlike the Daytona 500, the NASCAR Cup Series races under the lights for this dramatic and entertaining racing event. This will be the third superspeedway race of the 2025 season, so we should now begin to see some trends forming on these larger ovals. With the same aerodynamic package being used for the second time this season at Daytona, we hope to see some the same racing that made the Daytona 500 a competitive and exciting affair. If the drivers can duplicate the action we saw in April at Talladega, we should be in for a thrilling ride this Saturday night. The 500-mile race at Talladega Superspeedway earlier this season featured a whopping, season-high 67 lead changes among 23 different drivers for a very thrilling event. The Daytona 500 offered a somewhat comparable 56 lead changes, which was the most we've had at Daytona since 2011. We will see if more lead swaps will happen this weekend after two superspeedway races are in the bank with this car and rules package. 

The pack racing that superspeedways create lead to lots of lead changes and parity in these events. However, we also need to remember the 13 cars that DNF'd at Daytona in February is also a season high mark and really illustrates the luck side of the equation in this style of racing too. So, we have to be mindful of the multi-car crashes that the pack racing produces and the luck factor that is associated with this style of racing. We should be in for that same type of fireworks in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 this weekend. With this event at Daytona being held at night it always introduces a new dynamic to this high stakes racing. While there are many parallels, we'll be able to draw from the Daytona 500, we fully expect the action in Saturday night's race to have its own unique characteristics.

Since this is the second race of the season at DIS, we can look back to February's Daytona 500 and even the race at Talladega this spring for some indications on which teams are running at top speed on the superspeedway ovals. This information will form the foundation of our picks for this week's race. We'll also pay close attention to the historical data at Daytona International Speedway. While average finish position is not always a good statistic to rely on at these huge tracks, the loop stats will illustrate the drivers that lead laps, make quality passes and dominate at Daytona on a regular basis. The data shown below covers the last 20 years or 40 races at Daytona International Speedway.

Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron won this year's Daytona 500 and defended his race crown of 2024. The victory made the veteran a back-to-back victor of the Great American Race and a three-time winner overall at Daytona. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet pulled off the upset that February afternoon with his brilliant move from seventh-place to first when a crash broke out among the leaders on the final lap. He would hold Tyler Reddick at the stripe to collect the thrilling finish. The mayhem and jockeying among the leaders during the overtime finish made for a perfect situation for him, and Byron wasted no time seizing that opportunity. When the series traveled to Talladega in late April it was a total free-for-all, but Ty Gibbs managed to lead the most laps with 32 before fading back in the field at the finish. Joey Logano would also lead 24 laps before getting rolled up in a multi-car crash. It would be Austin Cindric walking away with that victory, thanks to some more last-lap heroics in the midst of mayhem. The theme so far in 2025 on superspeedway ovals has been brilliant moves, overtime finishes and last lap surprises by the eventual race winners.   

While he didn't win either race, Chase Briscoe will be looking to make his mark this Saturday night. The Joe Gibbs Racing star sat on the pole and finished a strong fourth-place in the season-opening Daytona 500. He also led 20 laps and showed great speed at Talladega in April before fading to a somewhat disappointing 15th-place finish. Briscoe was battling for the win in both Daytona and Talladega events, but he'd lack the luck component needed to pull off either of those victories. Aside from Briscoe, another driver looking to make headlines coming into Daytona is Austin Cindric. He sat on the outside pole, led 59 laps and finished eighth in the season-opening Daytona 500. Will the driver of the No. 2 Ford be able to step up his game in the return to Daytona? Those, among many other questions, will be answered this Saturday night. We'll take a look at recent history, and the 2025 Daytona 500 and give you the drivers you need this weekend to win your fantasy racing league.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

William Byron – The winner of the last two Daytona 500's has been the most proficient superspeedway performer of the last two seasons. In addition to Byron's wins at Daytona, he has four Top-5 finishes in the last six big oval events and a stellar 7.0 average finish across the span. There's no denying it, Byron and the No. 24 team have been seen racing among the leaders each of the last two seasons at both Daytona and Talladega in the closing laps. There are other drivers with more career-long accomplishments in superspeedway racing, but Byron is the hot hand right now. Byron is now a three-time Daytona winner and he's finished runner-up at the track in 2019. He's crashed out of a lot of races at Daytona over the years, but he's making up for it big time right now.

Austin Cindric – The 2022 Daytona 500 winner also checks in on the contenders list this week. Cindric is also our last superspeedway victor with his big win at Talladega in the spring. The Penske Racing youngster led just 7 laps in that event but used timely moves to capture the win. We fully believe he's capable of a big performance with high ceiling potential at Daytona this weekend. He's qualified on the outside pole and led a whopping 59 laps in this season's Daytona 500 before eventually finishing a respectable eighth-place. Cindric hasn't presented much fantasy value this season, but the big ovals are where he shines. This is the opportunity to use him in weekly fantasy lineup leagues.

Chase Briscoe – Briscoe has won two of the last four Daytona poles, so the No. 19 Toyota team has been pretty zeroed-in here. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver led 4 laps in the season-opening Daytona 500 before cashing in his second-career Top-5 finish at the track with a strong fourth-place. While Briscoe's superspeedway resume is a bit of an up-and-down record, he has shown more aptitude and an affinity for Daytona International Speedway over the oval at Talladega. His 33-percent Top-10 rate at Daytona may cause some fantasy players to pass up Briscoe and the No. 19 team, however, we believe that would be a mistake this weekend. He has race-winning potential in this current team situation.    

Ryan Blaney – Blaney won this event in 2021 for his lone Daytona victory and he's a three-time winner at the big oval in Talladega. Over the past two seasons on the big ovals, Blaney has struggled but he's led 42 laps combined so he's raced up front quite a bit. The reason for our optimism for a resurgence in his superspeedway racing is what he did at Daytona earlier this year. Blaney led 23 laps and finished a strong seventh-place in the season-opening Daytona 500. This is closer to what we expect from the No.12 Ford team when we visit Daytona. Blaney has led over 230 laps for his career at this facility and has grabbed a steady 40-percent Top-10 rate.              

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Christopher Bell – Bell has really stepped up his game in superspeedway racing over the past two seasons. With two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes between Daytona and Talladega, he sports a good 50-percent Top-10 rate on the big ovals coming into this weekend. Bell crashed out of the Daytona 500 due to some bad luck, but he finished an impressive third-place in this event one year ago at Daytona. That shows the potential the No. 20 Toyota team have for the Coke Zero Sugar 400. Bell has finished Top 5 in three of his last five Daytona races, and that's a dramatic shift from his prior career performance at Daytona International Speedway. He'll be a top performer Saturday night under the lights.  

Alex Bowman – One of only three drivers in the series to capture Top-10 finishes in the first two superspeedway events of the season is Bowman and his No. 48 Chevrolet team. He led 11 laps and was an impressive sixth-place finisher in the Daytona 500 and Bowman followed that up with a strong seventh-place at Talladega in April. Over the last two seasons this driver and team are cracking the Top 10 at a strong 67-percent rate in these superspeedway events and Bowman sports an 8.7 average finish over the span. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has notched four Top-10 finishes in his last five Daytona starts , and that has lifted his career Top-10 rate at the Florida oval to 39-percent. Bowman should be dependable with upside in the Coke Zero Sugar 400.

Bubba Wallace – Wallace owns an amazing three runner-up and five Top-5 finishes in his 16-career starts at Daytona International Speedway. He's always fared better at this oval than the similar oval in Talladega, despite having won at Talladega. Wallace's 13.0 average finish across those 16 starts and 65 laps led speak to his excellence in superspeedway racing. The 23XI Racing veteran has been very productive on the big tracks with four Top 10's over the past two seasons (67-percent) and 45 combined laps led on these ovals. He led 18 laps in the Daytona 500 and was challenging to win before a late-race crash would take him out. Wallace has homerun potential in the Coke Zero 400 with his strong No. 23 Toyota.

Chris Buescher – The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran has been a good superspeedway performer in recent seasons. A victory at Daytona in 2023 and his Top-10 finishes in recent Talladega races are the highlights. As to his career at Daytona, Buescher is a 47-percent Top-10 finisher at this high stakes track and that percentage has even been higher in his most recent visits. Four of his last five Daytona starts have netted Top-10 finishes (80-percent). This driver and team have battled some consistency issues of late, so we've slotted Buescher in the solid plays list this week due to this being one of his better ovals. However, he brings a very high ceiling for performance to Daytona.      

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Daytona & solid upside

Chase Elliott – Elliott has never won at Daytona International Speedway but he's flirted closely with the honor in recent seasons. He was a back-to-back runner-up finisher here in 2020 and 2021 and Elliott has five Daytona Top 10's in his last 10 starts at the track going into Saturday night's action. He's always tended to perform better in the summer race at the track rather than the Daytona 500. Elliott demonstrated that by finishing fourth in this event two seasons ago. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is a two-time winner at the similar oval in Talladega and he cracks the Top 10 at that oval at a strong 47-percent rate. Elliott will be racing among the leaders in the closing laps at Daytona.

Tyler Reddick – Despite putting it on the outside pole at Richmond this past weekend, Reddick would run into trouble and collect a poor finish in the Cook Out 400. He's looking to rebound in a big way this week at Daytona. Reddick was strong in the season-opening Daytona 500 and would drive to a career-best runner-up finish in the Great American Race. He would follow that up solidly with a Top-15 finish in April at Talladega. The driver of the No. 45 Toyota has crashed out of more Daytona races than he's collected Top 10's so he does carry a risk tag and sleeper designation for this reason. Daytona International Speedway has not been his best track on the circuit, but Reddick has cracked the Top 5 three times since 2021. This driver and team are trying to get locked into the playoffs, so urgency will be their friend.

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star is a one-time Daytona winner and three-time Talladega winner. Logano has led 377 laps at Daytona with most of those coming since the 2019 season, so we're quite used to seeing the No. 22 Ford up front here. The veteran driver has been inconsistent this season, but Logano has performed well on his best tracks. Logano has crashed out of his last three starts at Daytona International Speedway despite leading a combined 122 laps in those three events. That tough luck has to come to a halt at some point, and that's why we've slotted Logano and the No. 22 team in the sleepers list this week. The risk is high but the potential fantasy racing rewards are as well.

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski is a one-time Daytona winner (2016) and he finished runner-up in this event two years ago. He has over 350 laps led for his career at the historic Florida oval. Keselowski's luck finishing these races in Daytona has been inconsistent in recent seasons, but his skill at this style of racing is undeniable. There are also signs that his Daytona luck is changing. He's finished inside the Top 10 in two of his last four Daytona starts, both times in the night race. The driver of the No. 6 Ford is a six-time winner at the similar oval in Talladega and he finished an impressive runner-up there in October of last season. He'll be in the mix battling with the leaders this Saturday night.      

Kyle Busch – Busch has been typically a tough-luck driver in this form of racing, despite leading the driver rating average in the chart above. He's led a lot of laps and logged a lot of passes in his 40-career starts at Daytona International Speedway, so that's a big reason for his good driver rating. Finishes on the other hand have been tough to come by. His 33-percent career Top-10 rate at DIS isn't that bad, but his 18.5 average finish is not good either. The one trend we would point to as a big positive this weekend has been that Busch's recent performances at Daytona have trended better in the late-season night race than in the Daytona 500. He's finished 10th-, seventh- and second-place in the last three Daytona night races vs. subpar efforts in the last three Daytona 500's.  

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The 2023 Daytona 500 winner is a sneaky good fantasy racing play for the Coke Zero Sugar 400. Stenhouse has had some tough luck in his last four Daytona starts but that does not diminish the fact that he's a two-time Daytona winner and he won at Talladega last fall. He also cracked the Top 5 in his other Talladega appearance last season. Stenhouse brings that type of homerun upside to every superspeedway race he enters. The driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet finished 18th in the season-opening Daytona 500 which is a bit subpar by this driver and team's standards. However, don't let that performance fool you. Stenhouse is a guy not to sleep on for this 400-mile battle under the lights at Daytona.          

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has three Daytona 500 victories dating back to 2016 and he boasts a pedestrian 31-percent Top-10 rate at this high stakes track. With over 675-career laps led at the Florida speedway, he knows all too well what it takes to race up front here and win. However, since the introduction of the newest generation stock car, the Joe Gibbs Racing star's superspeedway prowess has taken a hit. Hamlin has failed to crack the Top 10 at Daytona since 2021 (eight-race Top-10 drought) and has seen his average finish at the oval balloon to 17.8. Superspeedway racing used to be Hamlin's best craft, but it has taken several steps back in recent seasons.         

Kyle Larson – The Hendrick Motorsports star has enjoyed success on many tracks, but superspeedway racing simply isn't his cup of tea. Larson's 22-career starts at Daytona have only netted five Top-10 finishes (23-percent) and his 21.9 average finish is more inflated than we'd like to see in a fantasy racing prospect. His nine DNF's at Daytona tell the tale and have led to that inflated average finish. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has tended to perform better on the Talladega oval than the one in Daytona and the statistics bear this out. He's finished 20th- and 21st-place in his last two Daytona starts and that seems to be right in line with his career averages. Larson is too high risk of a pick for the Coke Zero Sugar 400.    

Ryan Preece – Of the full-time active drivers in the field, Preece has had perhaps the worst luck at Daytona over the past three seasons. The journeyman Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver has crashed out of four of his last five starts at Daytona International Speedway and has no Top-20 finishes during that stretch. Despite leading 6 laps in the season-opening Daytona 500 he would be caught in a late-race pileup and finish a disappointing 32nd-place. It's been a similar story at the Talladega oval as well. Preece has finished outside the Top 30 in all four of his most recent starts between both Daytona and Talladega and three of those starts ended in DNF's.   

Josh Berry – The driver of the Wood Brothers Racing Ford has had a tough time the last two seasons on the superspeedway ovals. Berry has three DNF's and he's only collected one Top-20 finish in his last six attempts between Daytona and Talladega. That average finish across the span is coming in at a disappointing 27.7 average finish. Berry's last four Daytona starts have all failed to crack the Top 20 and have come in at a similar 27.5 average finish mark. Poor qualifying efforts, the lack of laps led and the bad luck of being rolled up in multi-car crashes have taken their toll on Berry's numbers. He's a very high risk fantasy racing prospect for Saturday night's Coke Zero Sugar 400.