This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
We're entering a big racing weekend, with the Chinese Grand Prix F1 grand prix kicking us off at 3 am ET Sunday morning (there's a sprint race at 11 pm ET Friday night). We then have the IndyCar Long Beach Grand Prix and NASCAR's Geico 500 at Talladega Superspeedway set to each kick off at 3 pm ET. We'll keep our focus for this article on the F1 and NASCAR disciplines, but race fans should be in for a fantastic weekend overall.
F1 Chinese Grand Prix
F1 will kick off the racing weekend with a return to Shanghai for the first time since 2019. It's a sprint weekend, though it's difficult to take much away from the sprint qualifying due to rainy conditions that forced drivers to intermediate tires in the final phases of the session. At the time of drafting this article, the props available were for qualifying of the traditional grand prix, for which we'll include a couple of picks in the initial edition of this article. It will be updated with picks or the grand prix itself on Saturday.
Yuki Tsunoda - under 12.5 starting position
Tsunoda was left frustrated in the sprint qualifying after being knocked out in Q1. However, he's reached Q3 in three of the four races this season and has beaten this projection in all four grand prix. The RB Honda has looked to be the sixth-fastest team for the most part, putting Tsunoda in a strong position to beat this projection.
Kevin Magnussen – over 13.5 starting position
Of the Haas driver pairing, Nico Hulkenberg has been in better form early in the season. Magnussen has started this season in the average position of 15th and he has beaten his projection only once (Jeddah). There would need to be mistakes from the likes of Tsunoda, Lance Stroll and Alex Albon, all of whom have consistently qualified ahead of Magnussen, for Magnussen to even have the opportunity to beat this prop.
Valtteri Bottas – under 13.5 starting position
On pure pace, Bottas has proven to be plenty competent by qualifying 13th in each of the last two races. His race form is a different story due to pit woes of the Kick Sauber team. As a result, he's a driver I want to be in on early in the weekend before fading him for the race itself.
NASCAR Geico 500
We'll return to a superspeedway for the first time since the first two points races of the NASCAR season. This is being billed as Ford's best chance to put together strong results after being overshadowed by both Chevrolet and Toyota for the majority of race weekends. Talladega is a bit different than the first two superspeedways of the year, as it's 60 feet wide (including the apron), whereas Daytona is primarily 52 feet and Atlanta spans anywhere between 40 and 52 feet. We'll look primarily to Daytona and history at Talladega to guide us in our selections.
Due to the higher variance we see at superspeedways, the projections are notably lower across the board than on weekends at short or intermediate tracks. Let's get to some picks.
Ryan Blaney – over 33.5 NASCAR points (Seventh place or better with no stage wins)
If Ford is to finally get a win this season, Blaney should be the clear favorite to get them there. He's known for his results at superspeedways in general, but his work at Talladega has been impeccable. Across the last six races, he's finished in the top five three times and has finished inside the top two in each of the last three tries. He's also tacked on a pair of stage wins, which would give him some additional breathing room to top this projection.
Martin Truex Jr. – Under 26.5 NASCAR points (15th place or worse with no stage wins)
Truex hasn't enjoyed races at the traditional superspeedways throughout his career, and we hit on the under on his Daytona 500 performance. Things haven't been any better at Talladega, as since the Next Gen car was introduced, he has finished inside the top 15 in only two of six races at the track. He remains one of the standout drivers at short tracks in particular, but fading Truex at superspeedways is typically a good idea.
Kyle Larson – under 26.5 NASCAR points (15th place or worse with no stage wins)
Part of the reason there's been some growing optimism around Ford's potential success this weekend is that traditional powerhouses such as Truex, Larson and even Tyler Reddick have underperformed at Talladega historically. Larson's struggles extend to all superspeedways. He's likely to qualify well with one-lap pace, but things seem to find a way to go sideways for him after that. In six races with the Next Gen car, Larson has a driver rating of 75.0 and has finished better than 15th just once.
Chase Elliott – over 31.5 NASCAR points (ninth place or better with no stage wins)
Is Elliott back, or did he never leave? Depends on who you ask. Regardless, he's had a quietly excellent season and was thrust into the spotlight after his win at Texas last week. Even prior to that, however, he had three top-10 finishes in his last four races. Add in a solid history at Talladega – he's finished inside the top seven in three straight trips to the trace – and the ingredients are there for another good weekend.
William Byron – over 32.5 NASCAR Points (eighth place or better with no stage wins)
Byron is another Hendrick driver to target at Talladega. He's finished inside the top five in four of nine races overall this season. He's also finished inside the top seven on five occasions, including a win at Dayton to begin the regular-season schedule. His history at Talladega is plenty solid as well, as his 89.5 driver rating is good for fourth-best since 2021 – with the second-best belonging to the now-retired Kevin Harvick.
