This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
The Brickyard 400 was among the most anticipated races of the year, as the Cup series returned to the iconic Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval for the first time since 2020. After muddling through some fuel savings and single-lane racing, there was a very compelling finish to the race that saw several different strategies converge at once. He won't otherwise be specifically mentioned in this article, but Brad Keselowski and his team deserve a lot of praise for doing everything they could to take the win home before ultimately running out of fuel. While some believe he gave Larson the win, the entertainment he provided alone keeps him out of the "Downgrade" section despite finishing 21st.
Upgrade
Kyle Larson – There are so many different reasons Larson should top this list. Sticking to on-track action, he and crew chief Cliff Daniels called their shot with their strategy and simply banked on Larson being the best driver in the field. Was there luck involved in Keselowski dipping into pit road on the final restart? Undoubtedly. But prior to that, Larson climbed through the field with some spectacular moves, notably overtaking the likes of Denny Hamlin and some of Larson's other top rivals.
The practical standpoint is that Larson is now atop the regular season standings and leads the Cup Series in wins – both of which would set him up well for the playoffs.
Lastly, the symbolism of the win is also compelling. Larson attempted the double at the Indy 500 and Coke 600 in July, but both races went sour for him. He ran the same paint scheme designed for the double and spoke about the full-circle nature of the win after the race. Even those unhappy with the finish have to admit the storyline and nature of the win was as compelling as they come.
Bubba Wallace – Just a few weeks ago, it appeared nearly impossible for Wallace to point into the playoffs. However, with three finishes inside the top 10 in the last four races, he sits only seven points away from 16th place. Even better, even with another new winner, he would remain in decent position to point his way in given the recent (poor) form of Ross Chastain and Chris Buescher.
Wallace isn't quite out of the woods yet as he's not particularly strong at Richmond, but he'll have a legitimate shot at banking a bag of points and potentially even a win at Michigan, Daytona and Darlington.
Tyler Reddick – Reddick expressed his disappointment with a second-place finish on social media after the race, but after an up-and-down day, he ended up on the relative right side of things. He began the weekend by securing pole and running inside the top five for most of race. However, some bad luck saw him fall to the back of pack at the start of Stage 3, putting him on an alternative strategy comparable to that of Larson – even pacing ahead of the eventual winner at various points.
Despite only winning one race this season, Reddick has 15 top-10 finishes to lead the series and nine top fives – tied for the lead. While more playoff points are always preferable, if he can carry over his current form into the postseason will bode well for a deep run.
Daniel Suarez – We shift back toward the bottom of the playoff picture with our final two selections in this section. Suarez has only four finishes inside the top 10 this season, two of which have at superspeedways. Though the Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a unique track relative to the rest of the circuits on the postseason schedule, it was encouraging to see him excel on a more traditional track.
The eighth-place finish was deceiving as he qualified 25th and had just a 59.3 driver rating, so this wasn't some earth-shattering performance. But Suarez needed some positive results and he should be able to bank another strong finish at Daytona toward the close of the regular season.
Austin Cindric – Cindric has a claim to being the only driver with a less impressive resume this season than Suarez. Also like Suarez, he didn't exactly "earn" his seventh-place finish with a driver rating of 60.3. Nevertheless, he did work his way back from a 38th-place start that was caused by troubles in qualifying. This likely doesn't signify anything better for a one-race outcome for Cindric, but it's noteworthy nonetheless.
Downgrade
Ross Chastain – Chastain makes a repeat appearance in the "Downgrade" section, but it's deserved. He has finished outside the top 20 in four straight races, dating back to the team's home race in Nashville and he now finds himself only seven points away from the cutline. As a driver known for a checkers or wreckers approach, it doesn't necessarily come as a surprise to see him struggling at points in the season. The problem now is the timing of where we currently are in the schedule and that there haven't been many ups to go with the downs. Chastain has only two top-five finishes after posting 15 and 10 in the last two Cup seasons. Even if he sneaks into the playoffs, a deep playoff run certainly isn't in the cards right now.
Chris Buescher – Perhaps the struggles of Chastain aren't solely on him, because his teammate at Trackhouse has been in a similar position of late. Buescher is only 10 points ahead of Chastain and 17 away from the cut line. To be fair, bad luck seemed to play a critical role in Buescher's struggles at Indy, as he did show some ability to move up the field early in the race when very few drivers were doing so. However, he suffered two flat tires later in Stage 1, denying him the chance to collect any points on the day. Buescher's season could come down to Michigan in what could be a win or he's out situation.
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is in the opposite position of Larson in nearly every way coming out of this race, and given their budding rivalry and close positioning in the standings that will sting. It was no secret that this race was important to the 11 team. Hamlin used some time on Actions Detrimental last week to say as much and Chris Gabehart also made it no secret through the broadcast Sunday.
Forget Hamlin's ultimate finishing pace, he undeniably ran into some bad luck. But the fact that he was outwitted by Larson's camp and ultimately passed by him on the way to victory lane has to sting. Hamlin is now behind Larson in the playoff standings and 43 points out of the regular season lead, likely ending his hopes of a regular-season championship.
Chase Briscoe – Briscoe was hoping to enjoy a homecoming race but that didn't come to fruition. He managed to finish 10th in Stage 2 but then took a cautious strategy toward the end of the race to ensure he had enough fuel to win the race. That pushed him to the back of the field where he got caught up in the biggest wreck of the day.
William Byron would certainly say that was justice, as he blamed Briscoe for causing a hefty collision that pushed Byron into a wall with a significant amount of force to end his day. On the track and in the perception of the drivers around him, it was a rough day for Briscoe.
Ryan Preece – Preece has had a number of false starts to the season, reeling off good finishes at Martinsville and Texas and more recently at New Hampshire and Nashville. Otherwise, it's been an underwhelming season for him, with each of his last two races ending with crashes. Sunday's of course was particularly high profile, ending the race in controversial fashion.
He also looks to be out of a ride for 2025, as Haas officially announced its lone driver for next season to be Cole Custer.
Biggest Surprise
Todd Gilliland – Gilliland's sixth-place finish wasn't so much a surprise standing alone. He had the 12th-best driver rating of the day and now has four finishes inside the top 10 this season, more than Cindric and equal to Suarez. What is surprising is the turnaround that he showcased with the finish. Pocono was considered a very comparable track and Gilliland found himself way off the pace all weekend, qualifying 33rd before finishing 34th. He showed much better form primarily due to strategy, but the team showed a strong ability to adapt to get better results.
