This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Food City 500
Location: Bristol, Tenn.
Course: Bristol Motor Speedway
Format: 0.53-mile oval
Laps: 500
NASCAR Cup Series Food City 500 Race Preview
The NASCAR Cup Series goes short track racing for the second time of the season this week at Bristol Motor Speedway in the Food City 500. Denny Hamlin won the first short-track outing at Martinsville and then backed that up with another victory a week later at Darlington, a race that was dominated by William Byron until late pit strategy and an overtime finish opened the door for Hamlin. Hamlin is also the defending winner this week at Bristol. The veteran driver 163 laps in total last spring to capture his fourth series win at the track in a race that was defined by tire wear. That event last season was the first spring race held on Bristol's high-banked concrete surface since 2020 when the dirt surface was used. In somewhat of a mystery, tire wear in that first race back was severe, and Hamlin's win was largely a result of his ability to manage his tires through the wear cycle. However, the same tire in the fall race produced very little wear and a completely different race. This week's race is largely expected to resemble the fall race with last spring's issues being an anomaly, but the unique nature of that event is something fantasy owners should keep in mind when comparing past results to expected outcomes this week.
Key Stats at Bristol Motor Speedway
- Number of races: 125
- Winners from pole: 27
- Winners from top-5 starters: 73
- Winners from top-10 starters: 98
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 6
- Fastest race: 104.589 mph
Previous 10 Bristol Winners
2024 fall - Kyle Larson
2024 spring - Denny Hamlin
2023 - Denny Hamlin
2022 - Chris Buescher
2021 - Kyle Larson
2020 fall - Kevin Harvick
2020 spring - Brad Keselowski
2019 fall - Denny Hamlin
2019 spring - Kyle Busch
2018 fall - Kurt Busch
Last spring's tire issues aside, Bristol's short lap and high-banked turns have produced some exciting races in the past. That short-track drama has tapered off since the introduction of the current car, though. Evidence of that was the fact that Kyle Larson led 462 of 500 laps to win last fall. However, the extreme tire wear in the spring made for an exciting race as drivers and teams were forced to back off to avoid failures as the fuel runs went on. That extreme wear is not expected this week, but drives will have to expect traffic. Bristol's small confines and high speeds make passing cars a necessity. Poor timing when approaching slower traffic can also erase an advantage quickly. The close quarters can sweep innocent bystanders into multi-car crashes, too. With track position being such an advantage, practice and qualifying will be important measures for fantasy players to review before finalizing selections. seven of the last eight Bristol races were won by a driver starting inside the top 10.
RotoWire NASCAR Cup Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Food City 500 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Denny Hamlin - $11,100
Kyle Larson - $11,000
Ryan Blaney - $10,500
Christopher Bell - $10,200
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
William Byron - $9,900
Chase Elliott - $9,600
Joey Logano - $9,300
Chase Briscoe - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Kyle Busch - $8,800
Bubba Wallace - $8,500
Ty Gibbs - $8,400
Chris Buescher - $8,300
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Brad Keselowski - $7,800
Ryan Preece - $7,500
Austin Cindric - $7,300
Zane Smith - $6,400
NASCAR Cup Series DFS Picks for the Food City 500
Chase Elliott - $9,600
Joey Logano - $9,300
Ty Gibbs - $8,300
Chris Buescher - $8,400
Ryan Preece - $7,500
Zane Smith - $6,400
Bristol's lineup forgoes the high-priced favorites in favor of bargain-priced contenders. Chase Elliott (DK $9,600, FD $12,500) is definitely one of those contenders. Though he has zero series wins at Bristol, his consistent top-10 finishes there are remarkable. When you couple that with his current trend of four top-10 finishes from the five races leading up to this weekend, you should have a recipe for success. Elliott's nine top-10 finishes from 15 Bristol starts, and two runner-up finishes from the last four, make him a top fantasy option in many different formats this week. Joey Logano (DK $9,300, FD $8,500) has largely struggled at Bristol with this rules package, but he is a two-time winner at the track with a victory on the dirt surface as well. Logano's last Bristol top-10 on the concrete surface was all the way back in 2019, but his experience at the track is going to turn that slump around soon. Why not this week? Logano currently sits 10th in the standings is on a run of five consecutive top-15 finishes leading up to this weekend.
Ty Gibbs (DK $8,300, FD $8,200) should be another bargain. He righted his 2025 ship after a poor start to the season with his first top-10 a week ago at Darlington. That finish was not a fluke either. He ran well throughout that race, which made it his best performance of the season so far. At Bristol, that trend should continue, too. Gibbs has two top-10 finishes from four series starts there with a combined 239 laps led. Fantasy players can also grab Chris Buescher (DK $8,400, FD $10,000) at what appears to be a good price. The RFK Racing driver is a Bristol winner who has three finishes of seventh or better at the circuit from his last four races. All of those races came with the current generation of car, helping him to an average Bristol finish of 6.5 in that span versus 18.2 through his 18 series race career at the circuit. He already has five top-10 finishes this season, too. Buescher's teammate Ryan Preece (DK $7,500, FD $7,000) should also be expecting a productive race. Bristol is a venue Preece has scored top finishes at even with lesser equipment at his disposal. With his step up in performance this year with RFK Racing, Sunday's race could be a real statement opportunity for him. Preece has two top-10 finishes at the track, including seventh last fall, and only one finish outside of the top 20 from eight series tries.
Finally, a deeper longshot fantasy owners may want to keep an eye on this week is Zane Smith (DK $6,400, FD $4,200). The former NASCAR CRAFTSMAN Truck Series champion impressed at Bristol last fall with a 16th-place finish despite starting that race 33rd. He has second- and third-place Bristol finishes from his days in the trucks, and has been on a roll in Cup this year with frequent top-15 finishes and one top-10 at Phoenix. Smith also finished 16th at Martinsville, the only other short-track race held so far this year.
NASCAR Cup Series Betting Picks for the Food City 500
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 1:00 PM ET Friday
Race Winner - Denny Hamlin +450, Kyle Larson +450
Top-Five Finish - Ryan Blaney +110
Head-to-Head Matchup - Chase Elliott -115, William Byron -115
From a wagering perspective, the favorites might be the ones to go with. Last season, Denny Hamlin was the master at short tracks, and that looks like it could the case again. Hamlin won at Martinsville two weeks ago, and then he snuck in to win Darlington last week, too. His competition at Bristol could come from Kyle Larson, though. Despite Larson's inconsistency, he remains a threat to win almost any given week. His domination at Bristol last fall, coupled with the relative lack of differences expected in tire and track this week, could make him a top contender again. From my perspective, I would give Hamlin the edge over Larson this week only because of Larson's inconsistency. Hamlin has been a top-five finisher four out of the last five races leading up to this week.
A better option than outright winner could be Ryan Blaney for a top-five finish. The Team Penske driver has never won at Bristol, but he started on pole in this race last season and finished sixth in the fall race. He had the fastest car in the closing miles last week at Darlington and only lost the win because of a late-race caution and subsequently slow stop. A place like Bristol, where he is recently building momentum, should be a great opportunity for him to snag a top finish.
The final wager to consider this week is in the head-to-head options. Here, Chase Elliott is paired against teammate William Byron. While Elliott has been consistently up front at this track, Byron has often struggled. Elliott finished second last fall and was eighth or better in his last four Bristol starts. On the other hand, Byron finished 35th and 17th at the track last season. His best Bristol result is a pair of third-place finishes in 2021 and 2022. Prior to that, his best finish at the track was eighth. Elliott is the more confident choice in this matchup.
