This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Wurth 400 Presented by LIQUI MOLY
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Course: Texas Motor Speedway
Format: 1.5-mile quad-oval
Laps: 267
NASCAR Wurth 400 Preview
This week the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway, which kicks off a four week string of races on 1.5-mile ovals. Just a week ago, Team Penske and Austin Cindric got their first win of the season in a close-fought race at Talladega Superspeedway, but circumstances are likely to be different in this stretch of races. Excluding Atlanta, due to its drafting rules package and progressive banking, only two 1.5-mile oval races have been held so far this season. Those were won by Josh Berry (Las Vegas) and Kyle Larson (Miami). Neither of those tracks truly resemble Texas, though. While Texas, Charlotte, and Atlanta all look similar, they are quite different. Specifically, Texas features shallower banking in turns 1 and 2 than it does in turns 3 and 4. This forces teams to set their cars up for opposite ends of the track, making this race more handling focused in nature, which means getting the most out of track position and tires. While the last two Texas winners have come from starting spots outside of the top 15, the predominance of winners at the venue have come from inside the top 10. Also, Toyota and Chevrolet have combined to win the last six Texas races with Ford having last visited Victory Lane there back in 2019.
Key Stats at Texas Motor Speedway
- Number of races: 44
- Winners from pole: 5
- Winners from top-5 starters: 25
- Winners from top-10 starters: 33
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 7
- Fastest race: 160.577 mph
Previous 10 Texas Winners
2024 - Chase Elliott
2023 - William Byron
2022 - Tyler Reddick
2021 - Kyle Larson
2020 fall - Kyle Busch
2020 spring - Austin Dillon
2019 fall - Kevin Harvick
2019 spring - Denny Hamlin
2018 fall - Kevin Harvick
2018 spring - Kyle Busch
As mentioned, Texas Motor Speedway stands on its own among the 1.5-mile ovals. The differing steepness through each set of corners places an emphasis on handling and finding the right line. Turns 1 and 2 feature 20-degree banking while turns 3 and 4 boast 24-degree slopes. This difference between opposite ends of the speedway forces teams to find a setup that will perform well through both ends. Fast cars with positive track position can use the clean air to their advantage. This premium makes qualifying important for success in Sunday's race. Stretches of long green flag also offer fewer opportunities for slower cars struggling with handling to make chassis adjustments and stay in touch with the front. These track trends make track position, especially on restarts, important.
Throughout the 400-mile race, teams and drivers will need to stay on top of handling and make the right strategy calls in order to maintain, or gain, track position. An ill-timed caution can also jumble the order. The last two Texas races had cautions within the final 10 laps, and last year's race set the record number of cautions for a 400-mile race. While one driver may dominate the afternoon, making the right call or having a quick stop at the end of the race could be the winning difference.
RotoWire NASCAR Cup Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Wurth 400 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Larson - $11,000
William Byron - $10,800
Denny Hamlin - $10,500
Tyler Reddick - $10,200
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Christopher Bell - $9,800
Joey Logano - $9,500
Chase Briscoe - $9,300
Chase Elliott - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Bubba Wallace - $8,600
Ross Chastain - $8,200
Ty Gibbs - $8,000
Josh Berry - $7,700
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Carson Hocevar - $7,400
Daniel Suarez - $6,900
Austin Dillon - $6,400
Zane Smith - $6,000
NASCAR Cup Series DFS Picks for the Wurth 400
Kyle Larson - $11,000
Chase Elliott - $9,000
Bubba Wallace - $8,600
Ty Gibbs - $8,000
Daniel Suarez - $6,900
Austin Dillon - $6,400
Chevrolet's recent strength at Texas, coupled with Kyle Larson's (DK $11,000, FD $14,000) current run of form, makes the No. 5 one of this week's top fantasy selections. Larson won at this track in 2021 and then led 195 total laps in the next three races. He finished in the top-five in four of last five races leading up to this weekend, too. Larson is in form and tends to spend a lot of time at the front at Texas, which is why fantasy players may want to pay his premium price this week.
Teammate Chase Elliott's (DK $9,000, FD $11,000) consistency is also worth taking this week. Elliott won this race last season and led a total of 84 laps in the last three races at the track. This season, he is leading the points among non-race winners and finished eighth or better in three of the last four races. He will be trying to be the first repeat Texas winner since 2015. Bubba Wallace (DK $8,600, FD $10,000) also spends a significant amount of time in the lead at Texas. The 23XI Racing driver led 111 laps in the 2023 race and added another five laps out front to his tally last year. He has never won at Texas but finished third and seventh the last two seasons.
Ty Gibbs (DK $8,000, FD $8,200) appears to be moving beyond his slow start to the 2025 season. He scored two top-10 finishes in a row before finishing 17th last week at Talladega. At Texas, his best finish was 13th last season, but he has single-lap pace. The last two races there he qualified fourth and second. If Gibbs can translate that single-lap speed into a full race distance, he appears to be a good value for money this week.
Another bargain may be Daniel Suarez (DK $6,900, FD $7,000). The Trackhouse Racing driver scored his second top-10 finish of the season last week and now heads to Texas where he finished 12th or better in the last four races. Similarly, Austin Dillon (DK $6,400, FD $5,200) seems to carry a lower price tag this week than his Texas record would suggest. Dillon won at this track in 2020 and went on to finish eighth in last year's race. He started inside the top 15 in the last four Texas contests, too.
NASCAR Cup Series Best Bets for the Wurth 400
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:00 AM ET Saturday
Race Winner - Kyle Larson +330, Tyler Reddick +700, Ryan Blaney +900
Top Ford - Ryan Blaney +155
Top Toyota - Tyler Reddick +240
The top choice for winner at Texas is rightfully Kyle Larson. The Hendrick Motorsports driver has been quick at most tracks this season, won on a 1.5-mile oval already, and usually leads a significant amount of laps at Texas specifically. Chevrolet and Toyota's strength at Texas makes this an even more logical choice. While we would prefer the odds we saw earlier in the week, Larson remains a clear favorite for Sunday's victory.
Other options for outright winner for wagerers seeking greater payouts would come from Ryan Blaney and Tyler Reddick. Neither holds the favorite status of Larson, but both have been competitive at the track and are certainly capable of winning if things go their way. Blaney won at Texas in the All-Star Race in 2022 and is a consistent player inside the top 10 while Reddick won in 2022 and led 30 or more laps in each of the last three Texas Races.
Additionally, for either Blaney or Reddick, wagerers looking to cut the competition down could look to either driver to be the top finisher for their manufacturer. Both Blaney and Reddick are likely considered the best at Texas among their compatriots and therefore could make compelling choices on the prop bet side as well.
Mapping out your wagers for the NASCAR Cup Series race? Check out the latest Sportsbook Promo Codes to get special offers and make the most of your bets.
