This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Ambetter Health 400
Location: Hampton, Ga.
Course: Atlanta Motor Speedway
Format: 1.5-mile quad-oval
Laps: 260
NASCAR Ambetter Health 400 Race Preview
The NASCAR Cup Series continues superspeedway racing this week in the Ambetter 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. While the track is a 1.5-mile quad-oval, the circuit's reprofiling before the 2022 season, along with the current rules package, makes it a pack-style race like Daytona or Talladega. While speed in the draft and the ability to make passes through the congested field remain the same goals, there are some key differences fantasy players should expect this week. Being shorter and more narrow, Atlanta's racing surface offers less room for the massive pack of cars to sort themselves out. The slightly less steep banking and having a mile less of lap distance makes average speeds slightly slower than last week, too. Despite the speeds being down, things still happen very quickly on the smaller track. A driver having to back off or lose momentum means a quick loss of track position, and the narrower lanes make contact between cars even more likely. Last year's race had 10 cautions, nine of which were for spins or contact, and there was a 16-car crash on lap 3. Mistakes on this track are punished hard, which puts extra pressure on teams and drivers to execute to perfection on track and on pit road.
Key Stats at Atlanta Motor Speedway
- Number of races: 121
- Winners from pole: 16
- Winners from top-5 starters: 64
- Winners from top-10 starters: 93
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 9
- Fastest race: 166.633 mph
Previous 10 Atlanta Winners
2024 fall - Joey Logano
2024 spring - Daniel Suarez
2023 fall - William Byron
2023 spring - Joey Logano
2022 fall - Chase Elliott
2022 spring - William Byron
2021 fall - Kurt Busch
2021 spring - Ryan Blaney
2020 - Kevin Harvick
2019 - Brad Keselowski
The high-powered draft at Atlanta bunches the field together, but the smaller track and greater opportunity to lose momentum makes passing possible. The 1.5-mile oval's shorter lap distance and narrower racing lines when compared with Daytona or Talladega mean less margin of error and a greater chance of being involved in someone else's mistake, though. There just isn't as much room for cars to go when problems happen as at the larger superspeedways. Qualifying is still less of a factor, though. Teams will try to set their cars up to handle well in turbulent air and allow their driver to make aggressive moves in traffic. Track position remains important at the end, though. While drivers may opt to play it safe at the back through as much of the race as possible, they must move forward in time to be at the front for stage and race finishes. Daniel Suarez won this race last season starting from the 23rd position. Pit strategy can be the easiest way to make up ground like we saw some teams do last week. Avoiding accidents, making no mistakes on pit road, and having a car that can work through the mass of traffic are keys to Atlanta success.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Ambetter Health 400 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Ryan Blaney - $9,800
Joey Logano - $9,700
Chase Elliott - $9,500
Austin Cindric - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Kyle Busch - $8,800
Chris Buescher - $8,600
Bubba Wallace - $8,300
Daniel Suarez - $8,100
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Tyler Reddick - $7,800
Ross Chastain - $7,600
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $7,500
Todd Gilliland - $7,000
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
AJ Allmendinger - $6,900
Erik Jones - $6,800
Justin Haley - $6,700
Corey Lajoie - $6,200
NASCAR DFS Picks for the Ambetter Health 400
Ryan Blaney - $9,800
Austin Cindric - $9,000
Kyle Busch - $8,800
Daniel Suarez - $7,100
Todd Gilliland - $7,000
AJ Allmendinger - $6,900
Fantasy players have a plethora of options to set up a really compelling superspeedway roster this week at Atlanta. Not only are some of the likely contenders inexpensively priced, but some of the drivers to avoid are among the most expensive. Leading off our choices is Ryan Blaney (DK $9,800, FD $14,000). The Team Penske driver was not only consistently fast at Daytona last week, he hasn't finished lower than ninth at Atlanta since 2022. His only track win came on the old configuration, but that statistic seems destined to change soon. Teammate Austin Cindric (DK $9,00, FD $12,000) has also been really good here since the track changed. He hasn't finished lower than 12th since 2022 and enters this week's race having finished fourth and 10th with 124 laps led in the two Atlanta races last season. These two superspeedway standouts are not the most expensive drivers this week, which leaves plenty of salary cap space for even more bargains. Kyle Busch (DK $8,800, FD $13,000) is one of those. Busch's switch to RCR and Chevrolet in 2023 set him off on the right path at this track. He finished just 33rd and 20th at this version of Atlanta in a Toyota in 2022. Since switching to Chevrolet, he hasn't finished lower than 10th. The Richard Childress Racing driver was in contention for the win last week when bad luck bit, too. Another Chevrolet driver getting the job done at Atlanta is last year's winner of this race, Daniel Suarez (DK $7,100, FD $10,000). The Trackhouse Racing driver might be the biggest bargain on the board, too. Not only did he win NASCAR's closest three-way finish here last season, but he finished as the runner up in two of the last three, too. Since this track was reconfigured, Suarez only failed to finish inside of the top six on one occasion when he was involved in a crash.
There are still values to be had even deeper down the price list. Todd Gilliland (DK $7,000, FD $6,000) is one of those. Following post-race inspection, he was penalized 10 championship points for having unsecured ballast in last week's Daytona 500 and will be working hard to recover the lost ground in the championship this week. Atlanta is a good opportunity for him to make up ground, too. Gilliland started inside the top 10 at this track in the three most recent races, led 58 laps in this race last season, and has three finishes of 17th or better with two of those coming from starts outside of the top 20. We know Gilliland can race with the best at superspeedways, and with a little luck this week, he could be in store for a career-best finish. Fantasy players shouldn't sleep on AJ Allmendinger (DK $6,900, FD $4,800) either. An early engine issue ruled him out of the Daytona 500 before it barely got started, but he should be able to recover some lost ground this week, too. Allmendinger has 15 series starts at Atlanta with four top-10 finishes. His best finish at the track came on its current superspeedway iteration in 2023 when he started 19th and finished third. In four Xfinity races on this configuration, he finished no lower than 13th and an average of 7.25.
NASCAR Best Bets for the Ambetter Health 400
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:00 PM ET Friday
Race Winner - Austin Cindric +1300, Daniel Suarez +2500
Top-10 Finish - Erik Jones +170, John Hunter Nemechek +360
Driver Matchups - Daniel Suarez -120 vs. Kyle Larson
After Team Penske's showing a week ago at Daytona, wagerers should keep Austin Cindric high on their list of race-winner options for Atlanta. Cindric hasn't finished lower than 12th at the track since the fall race of 2022, and it seems likely that Penske Ford advantage he enjoyed last week will continue this Sunday. While any of the Penske drivers could be good options, Cindric offers the best odds without sacrificing any potential. A driver deeper in the odds to consider would be Daniel Suarez. With top-two finishes in his last three Atlanta starts, one might think his odds would be significantly less. However, Suarez has shown that he knows how to race well at this track and he delivers top Atlanta finishes consistently, which gives wagerers a big potential payoff this week.
Odds among drivers seeking a top-10 finish are much more narrow. However, given last week's race, we have a little insight as to who could pull off the surprise. Given both Erik Jones and John Hunter Nemechek's presence at the front of the field late at Daytona a week ago, it would not be shocking to see them with similar potential this week. Jones finished 12th and Nemechek was fifth in last week's 500. Both played the race smartly and used the equalizer of the draft to outperform expectations. It would not be unreasonable to envision either driver bagging a top-10 finish this week at Atlanta in mostly similar race conditions.
The final wager folks should consider is the head-to-head matchup between Daniel Suarez and Kyle Larson. At almost any other track, I might tell you to take Larson, but not this week. While Suarez has been racking up the accolades at Atlanta, Larson has been doing the opposite. Since the track was reconfigured to act like a superspeedway, Larson has earned a best finish of just 13th. His average Atlanta finish from 2022 through 2024 is 29.8. He also crashed out of five of those six races. In contrast, Suarez has a win, two runner-up finishes, and an average of 7.3 in the same period and just one DNF.
