YellaWood 500
Location: Talladega, Ala.
Course: Talladega Superspeedway
Format: 2.66-mile tri-oval
Laps: 188
Race Preview
With a win last week at Las Vegas, Denny Hamlin secured the first of four available spots to race for the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series championship at Phoenix. Doing so, in the first race of the final elimination round, gives him the luxury of not having to stress about what may happen this week in the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. The 2.66-mile imposing superspeedway is NASCAR's biggest track and racing in the pack at maximum speed makes this race one of the more unpredictable and dramatic ones each season. Drafting closely with other cars is how to move forward in this race, but even small mistakes can have disastrous consequences. Talladega is known for its big multi-car crashes with the field moving so fast so closely together, but equally as challenging for drivers is making the right move at the right time. Superspeedway races, and Talladega specifically, can come down to decisions off of the final corner that make or break an entire race. Choosing the right line, correct drafting partner, and making a block at the perfect moment are the differentiators at this track, and with a spot in the championship finale available to the seven active playoff contenders by winning will put the microscope on even the smallest of decisions this week.
Key Stats at Talladega Superspeedway
- Number of races: 112
- Winners from pole: 14
- Winners from top-5 starters: 56
- Winners from top-10 starters: 76
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 9
- Fastest race: 188.354 mph
Previous 10 Talladega Winners
2025 spring - Austin Cindric
2024 fall - Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
2024 spring - Tyler Reddick
2023 fall - Ryan Blaney
2023 spring - Kyle Busch
2022 fall - Chase Elliott
2022 spring - Ross Chastain
2021 fall - Bubba Wallace
2021 spring - Brad Keselowski
2020 fall - Denny Hamlin
Talladega is a long and wide tri-oval with 33-degree banking in the turns that enable cars to run full throttle the entire lap. Drafting bumper to bumper with other cars is the fastest way around the track and pack racing throughout the race's 500-mile distance is what everyone will be dealing with. Since moving through the field requires drafting help, teammates will typically work together in this race, pushing and pulling one another through traffic and also pitting at the same time to ensure a critical mass of cars are together in order to get back up to speed as quickly as possible. As stage and race finishes approach, it becomes every driver for himself, though. In those high-pressure final miles drivers jockey for position and making the wrong move at the wrong time can mean losing position at best or causing calamity at worst.
Ford-powered cars have been some of the fastest at superspeedways this season, but that strength doesn't always translate into victory. William Byron won the Ford dominated Daytona 500 in February, but Fords of Austin Cindric and Ryan Blaney have also gotten the job done on superspeedways this year. In short, anyone and any manufacturer could win this week at Talladega. It doesn't necessarily matter where a driver starts either. Cindric's win here in April was the first victory to come from a starting spot better than 10th at Talladega since 2020.
What will matter Sunday is not making mistakes. Missteps are amplified with the close racing and high speeds of Talladega, and some can be catastrophic. Mistakes on pit road can mean losing the draft. Making the wrong move in the pack can mean losing several positions, and choosing the correct line off the last turn can be the difference between winning or losing. With the stakes at the highest they've been all season for the playoff drivers, the pressure to survive and thrive this week at Talladega is second to none.
RotoWire NASCAR Cup Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the YellaWood 500 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Ryan Blaney - $10,500
Joey Logano - $10,200
William Byron - $10,000
Chase Elliott - $9,800
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Kyle Larson - $9,500
Austin Cindric - $9,300
Denny Hamlin - $9,100
Christopher Bell - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Tyler Reddick - $8,800
Brad Keselowski - $8,600
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $8,500
Kyle Busch - $8,300
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Chase Briscoe - $7,900
Bubba Wallace - $7,700
Josh Berry - $7,100
Carson Hocevar - $6,900
NASCAR Cup Series DFS Picks for the YellaWood 500
Ryan Blaney - $10,500
Christopher Bell - $9,000
Brad Keselowski - $8,600
Chase Briscoe - $7,900
Josh Berry - $7,100
Carson Hocevar - $6,900
Ryan Blaney (DK $10,500, FD $13,500) enters this week's YellaWood 500 on the ropes in the playoffs and having crashed out of the last two Talladega races. However, this is a track he has three victories at. He led a total of 290 laps from his 22 series starts at Talladega and is often planted at the front of superspeedway races. The Team Penske Fords have been commanding at superspeedway races this season, racking up many miles in the lead across the three teammates, and that makes them some of the favorites to win this week. With his back against the wall after an early crash last week at Las Vegas, Blaney may be a good one to choose this week as he seeks to put that low point firmly in the rearview mirror.
Christopher Bell (DK $9,000, FD $9,000) is in a much better playoff position than Blaney, and he has also been quick among the Toyota contingent at superspeedways. He is the hottest driver in the playoffs with six finishes of seventh or better since Darlington with three consecutive third-place finishes heading into this weekend. Talladega has also been a good venue for him. Bell qualified on pole for both races at the track in 2022 and has three top-10 finishes from 11 tries including a sixth-place finish in this race last season. He crashed out early at the track this spring, but fantasy players can reasonably expect him to be among the top 10 this week if he steers clear of trouble on he return visit.
Another noted superspeedway racer to consider this week is Brad Keselowski (DK $8,600, FD $11,500). He may not be the Talladega driver from early in his career, but he has still been making his presence felt at the front of the field on superspeedways. Keselowski teams well with other Fords in the pack and regularly qualifies in the top 10 at these tracks. He is a six-time Talladega winner and he finished second in two of his last three starts at the track. He may not be part of the playoff picture, but he has the potential to play spoiler Sunday.
Talladega hasn't been the best hunting ground for Chase Briscoe (DK $7,900, FD $7,500), but it hasn't been bad and fantasy players have reason to be optimistic about his chances this week. After settling into his new ride this season at JGR, Briscoe is in excellent form in the playoffs and in contention to gran a spot in the final. He has been improving at most circuits, and the numbers show improvement at Talladega, too. His best finish at the track was fourth in a Ford in 2023. In his eight prior visits to the circuit prior to making the jump to JGR, he led a total of five laps, but he quadrupled that total in the spring race this season after starting 17th. The combination of Briscoe current playoff form and marked improvement at Talladega could make him a valuable option for fantasy rosters this week.
Another driver showing Talladega improvement is Josh Berry (DK $7,100, FD $5,200). In three starts, his best finish was 16th in the spring race last season. However, this year he led 12 laps in the spring race and qualified in the top 10. He also finished ninth at Daytona just a few weeks ago. The trend on superspeedways is upward for Berry and with the Team Penske partnership his Wood Brothers Racing No. 21 brings to the table, he could be a sneaky good play this week.
Carson Hocevar (DK $6,900, FD $7,000) takes the last spot after some gutsy superspeedway races this season. Specifically, he finished sixth at Talladega in April, which was his best series finish at the track. He also finished fourth in the first stage of that race. Hocevar has shown the speed and aggression to race at the front on these tracks and could be a worthy lower-priced option for fantasy rosters this week.
NASCAR Cup Series Betting Picks for the YellaWood 500
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:00 AM ET Saturday
Race Winner - Ryan Blaney +900
Top-Five Finish - Daniel Suarez +275
Top-10 Finish - Josh Berry +100
Matchup - Kyle Larson -135, Christopher Bell +100
With Team Penske's speed at superspeedways this season, choosing one of the team's three drivers as winners is a confident option. Ryan Blaney could top that list. He is the favorite heading to Talladega for a reason. He won at Daytona in August and led 23 laps at that track in the Daytona 500, too. His April Talladega finish of 37th was due to a crash that eliminated him from the race before even 50 laps were complete, which means he didn't have the opportunity to show his pace at the track in that race. Still, his teammates carried the team flag in his absence with Austin Cindric taking that win. Wagerers should expect Blaney to be at the front again this week, and his eight-place spot in the playoffs after an early exit at Las Vegas gives him plenty of incentive to push his way to Sunday's race win.
A longshot option fans may want to consider for a top-five this week is Daniel Suarez. We already know this will be his last superspeedway race with Trackhouse Racing as he seeks a new ride for next season. This is also a track where he has the opportunity to leave that team with a top result. Suarez has been among the front runners at superspeedways regularly, and there is no reason to think that would be different this week. He finished second at Daytona in August, led two laps and finished ninth at Talladega in April, and finished 13th in the Daytona 500 in February. Suarez knows how to get to the finish of these races, which often earn him top results and a top-five finish should be within his reach this week.
Josh Berry could also be a good play for a top-10 finish. The Wood Brothers Racing driver only has three series starts at Talladega without any top-10 finishes, but he led 15 total laps in those races and started the spring race in eighth position. He had top-10 speed in April, scoring stage points in the second segment and leading 12 laps, but only finished 26th after a an incident on pit road. With a mistake-free race this week, Berry should be a top-10 contender or better, which makes these odds worth taking.
A matchup to take a close look at for this race is Kyle Larson versus Christopher Bell. Larson has been improving on superspeedways this season, scoring some of his best finishes at the tracks. However, his odds have not matched his results at Daytona and Talladega throughout his career. He is often priced near the favorites at the tracks but has never won at either circuit. Bell, on the other hand, has been able to frequently get the most out of his Toyota. While he also does not have a win at either track, he has been less susceptible to crashes with more top-10 Talladega finishes through his first 12 starts at the track than Larson. In short, Larson offers poorer odds in this matchup by virtue of a few more recent good results versus Bell, who has delivered those finishes more consistently over time. Bell is the better pick in this wager.
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