This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
A shift in the NASCAR schedule brings us to Texas Motor Speedway earlier than has recently been the case. It's been a part of the playoffs for the last two seasons and was the site of the All-Star race in 2022 as well. The recent history at the track may be less useful than other races as a result, as the top drivers would almost certainly drive differently in both of the above scenarios than a more traditional regular season Cup race.
Luckily, there are some comparable tracks we can look at. Las Vegas is the top comparable option where the series has already raced this season. Other top tracks to look to include Kansas and Charlotte.
EchoPark Automotive 400 PrizePicks Selections
Kyle Larson – over 37.5 NASCAR points (fourth place or better without a stage win)
Each week, I'm willing to try to make one recommendation to take the over on the elite-level projections. Larson gets the nod this weekend. To the extent we want to rely on his track record at Texas, he has an outstanding driver rating of 122 in the last three races with two top-ten finishes and one top-five finish. In last season's race, he dominated the field but finished 31st due to a crash on a late restart. In the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas this year, he led the field in fast laps, led 181 laps and never ran lower than eighth in the field. We shouldn't be surprised at all if Larson dominates Sunday.
Christopher Bell – under 34.5 NASCAR points (seventh place or worse with no stage wins)
Bell has been off the pace in two of our most recent relevant samples, including Vegas this year and last year's race in Texas. He had a pair of tire issues at the Pennzoil 400, so we shouldn't take his 33rd-place finish at face value. However, he had only two fast laps and had an overall driver rating of just 63.7. Other data points also support taking the under. He had just a 78.2 driver rating last year at Texas despite a fourth-place finish. His data points at Kansas are quite good, but there's plenty of evidence pointing to the under.
Kyle Busch – under 27.5 NASCAR points (14th place or worse with no stage wins)
One way or another, things just haven't gone right for Busch this season. He ran well at Las Vegas but had a self-inflicted penalty for missing his pit box to finish. In five races since, and across multiple different track types, he's finished inside the top 20 only twice and top ten just once. Busch definitely has the pace to finish better than 14th, which he showed for most of the race in Vegas, but I'll take the under until he proves otherwise.
Chris Buescher – over 29.5 NASCAR points (11th place or better with no stage wins)
Brad Keselowski - over 29.5 NASCAR points (11th place or better with no stage wins)
I'd only take the over one of the test RFK drivers simply due to probabilities, but there's a strong case for both to run very well this weekend. Ignore Buecher's result from the race in Vegas this season, as he was sent out of the pits with a loose wheel that caused a DNF after only 27 laps. However, he qualified ninth for the race and led a couple of laps before bowing out. He also has several top-10 finishes between Kansas and Charlotte on his resume.
Keselowski's track record at Texas is outstanding, which we've laid out some reasons to discount. His results are simply too good combined with his relatively modest projection, though, as he's finished inside the top 10 in each of the last three races at Texas and has a tidy 99.3 driver rating. Many around the industry have called RFK a disappointment to this point in the season, but I'd expect that to change this weekend.
Joey Logano – under 31.5 NASCAR points (11th place or worse with no stage wins)
This is a shockingly low projection for Logano, yet I still want the under. He has a strong track record at Texas but he hasn't really looked like a true contender to win a race yet this season. He had some pace in Vegas as is clear because he won the pole, but all he did was move down the field (quickly) thereafter. Something will likely click for him this season, but as we've said for a few other drivers to this point, I'll wait to see it until I take an over on his projection.
