NASCAR Draft Kit: 2025 Sleepers & Busts

Of all the articles that make up the NASCAR draft kit, this is probably the most important of all. Surprise drivers in both the positive and negative sense can make or break fantasy racing seasons. We all know what Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin can do, so there's little risk associated with those drivers, but it is the drivers that come out of nowhere to have huge seasons can take you to fantasy racing glory. Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman and Brad Keselowski likely helped many to win their leagues last season. While drivers like Kyle Busch, Josh Berry and Austin Dillon most likely ended your fantasy racing championship hopes by mid-season. Identifying those drivers who will break-out and have career seasons, and those who are headed in the other direction for whatever reason is the key in fantasy racing success. Let's take a look at some of the drivers in 2025 that you should make every effort to get, and those who you should avoid at all costs.

Sleepers for the 2025 Season

1. Chase Briscoe             

Car: No. 19

Owner: Joe Gibbs Racing

Manufacturer: Toyota

After four seasons of racing with Stewart Haas Racing the team closed at the conclusion of the 2024 season. That left Briscoe without a ride, at least temporarily. News would come that he had signed a deal with Joe Gibbs Racing to replace the retiring Martin Truex Jr. in the No. 19 Toyota. This would be a windfall for the 30-year-old driver. Briscoe has shown the ability to win and challenge for Top 10's in middle-of-the-road equipment. The upgrade to JGR should really pull out his full potential. Briscoe will be teamed with crew chief James Small. He's a veteran of over 180 Cup Series starts and he led Truex to eight wins during his tenure with the No. 19 Toyota team. Truex struggled last season, but did manage to make the playoff field. Briscoe will need to quickly adapt to his new race team in order to show off his full potential in 2025. We expect him to climb the driver standings as a result and post a career-best in Top-10 finishes in the upcoming campaign.

2. AJ Allmendinger            

Car: No. 16

Owner: Kaulig Racing

Manufacturer: Chevrolet

After a one-season hiatus and only part-time Cup Series competition in 2023, Allmendinger returns to full-time competition at NASCAR's top level in 2025. Kaulig Racing will put him back inside the No. 16 Chevrolet and look to challenge for wins and make the playoffs in the upcoming season. At 43-years-old and with close to 450 Cup Series starts under his belt, Allmendinger is no youngster. He's a seasoned veteran who has experience winning at the top two levels of NASCAR. Trent Owens will serve as his crew chief and the two will look to make some waves in Allmendinger's return to full-time competition. As always with this veteran driver, he's a major threat to win on road circuits and he's a pretty reliable performer on the large ovals as well. Allmendinger should double his number of Top 10's due to the additional starts and press the 10-Top-10 finish plateau and he should challenge for a win or two in the six road racing events in the 2025 calendar. 

3. Ty Gibbs           

Car: No. 54

Owner: Joe Gibbs Racing

Manufacturer: Toyota

Gibbs has shown nice progression in his first 87 starts at the Cup Series level. He's yet to scratch the win column and that's a bit surprising. However, the young driver did flirt with victory lane on more than one occasion in 2024 so that first win is inching closer to reality. He'll get a change of crew chiefs in the upcoming season as Tyler Allen replaces Chris Gayle atop the team's war wagon. Allen led the JGR No. 20 Toyota to an utter dominant campaign in the Xfinity Series last season as they piled up eight victories and 22 Top-10 finishes between six rotating drivers. Gibbs will enjoy his knowledge and expertise as he sets out on his third season of full-time competition at NASCAR's top level. The young driver showed a real affinity for intermediate ovals and some road circuits last season, so those are some tracks to note. Gibbs finished the season on a bit of a downward arc, but he should shake that off heading into the new season and with his new crew chief at his side. 

4. Kyle Busch           

Car: No. 8

Owner: Richard Childress Racing

Manufacturer: Chevrolet

This is not as much a sleeper pick as it is a rebound pick. The 2024 campaign was a lost season for Busch and the No. 8 Chevrolet team. Nothing but struggles from start to finish as the veteran driver posted his worst performing season of his NASCAR career. We believe in the old adage "you can't keep a good man down" applies here. Sure, Busch is 39-years-old and isn't getting any younger. Still, we believe he still has a lot of good racing left in him. He and crew chief Randall Burdett will sort this out over the off-season. The two won three races just one season earlier. We expect Busch and the No. 8 Chevrolet team to claw some of their lost performance back in 2025 and rediscover victory lane and increase the Top 10 output. Don't overpay for Busch in fantasy racing leagues. He's not the 5+ win and 20+ Top-10 driver anymore and he doesn't race for a team capable of that. Still, Busch brings a lot of upside to the table and his ceiling is much higher than what he did in 2024.  

5. Ross Chastain           

Car: No. 1

Owner: Trackhouse Racing

Manufacturer: Chevrolet

While we've seen some regression over the three-season trend line in the table above, Chastain's breakout 2022 campaign set the bar pretty high. The veteran driver would be winless most of last season before heating up late and grabbing his lone victory (Kansas) during the playoffs. We believe the 2024 season is the floor for this team and the late-season heater is more representative and optimism heading into the upcoming season. Chastain grabbed one pole, one win and five Top-10 finishes over those final 10 events. If projected out over an entire season he could garner two wins and near 18 Top-10 finishes in 2025. That's likely the high-water mark but also a mark of potential. We believe Chastain and the No. 1 Chevrolet team will rebound in the upcoming season it's just a matter of how far. Short tracks, intermediate ovals and road circuits were his best tracks last year. That won't change this season as he once again displays incredible versatility and the level of performance that makes him a high second-tier driver.

6. Carson Hocevar           

Car: No. 77

Owner: Spire Motorsports

Manufacturer: Chevrolet

Hocevar won the Rookie of the Year in 2024 in pretty comfortable fashion. He would grab six Top-10 finishes and end up a respectable 21st in the final point standings in his first campaign in NASCAR's top division. Spire Motorsports is growing and improving and they should give him the tools to make more gains in the upcoming season. Luke Lambert returns at crew chief and the two will look to build on the gains they established last year. Hocevar showed the ability to win races and challenge for championships in the Craftsman Truck Series and he was able to completely leapfrog the Xfinity Series in his course of driver development and have success in the Cup Series right away. That speaks to Hocevar's talent. He showed the ability to post good finishes on all styles of tracks, including road courses last season. He challenged for the win and finished a career-best third-place at Watkins Glen last fall. 

Busts for the 2025 Season

1. Austin Dillon             

Car: No. 3

Owner: Richard Childress Racing

Manufacturer: Chevrolet

Over the past two seasons Dillon has descended from a driver contending to make the playoffs and challenge for the occasional win into a driver who is struggling to remain relevant at a major team. He did scratch the win column with a surprise victory at Richmond but eligibility for the playoffs would be overruled by NASCAR due to avoidable contact during that race. Over the past four seasons we've seen Dillon's average finish balloon from the mid-teens and into the low 20's. Is there any coming back from this regression? We don't believe there will be much of any rebound in performance for Dillon and the No. 3 Chevrolet team. Richard Boswell takes over at crew chief and will look to get Dillon back on track, but he faces a steep uphill climb. He didn't show many signs of life in the final 10 races of last season so no indicators of an immediate breakout ahead. 

2. Joey Logano             

Car: No. 22

Owner: Penske Racing

Manufacturer: Ford

Despite winning two of the last three Cup Series championships, there's been a clear and unmistakable trajectory to Logano's statistical trends. For a lot of years, he posted 20+ Top 10's and three or more victories. However, starting in about 2019 we started to notice his average finish steadily grow from 10.8 to it's current 17.1. The 13 Top-10 finishes Logano posted last season were a 12-season low mark and the 17.1 average finish was also a 12-season low. Were it not for the 10-race playoff and the late-season heaters by the No. 22 Ford team, Logano would not be a three-time champion. We've seen steady and progressive performance erosion from this driver since the 2020 season. As for a 2025 outlook, we expect similar performance numbers for Logano. Maybe a reduction in victories to just 2 and a similar Top-10 total. Average finish will still struggle somewhere down in the middle teens. Consistency from week-to-week will continue to be an issue with Logano as he continues to get older.

3. Riley Herbst             

Car: No. 35

Owner: 23XI Racing

Manufacturer: Toyota

The Las Vegas native has spent the last five seasons competing full-time in the Xfinity Series where Herbst has accumulated three victories and 86 Top-10 finishes in those 175 starts. He achieved his best points finish in that division of NASCAR last year when he came home seventh-place in the final driver standings. It was a bit surprising that Herbst was tabbed when 23XI Racing announced they were expanding to three teams in 2025. There were some heavier hitters in that division of NASCAR that the team passed up in favor of Herbst. None-the-less, he will enter the 2025 season as a Rookie of the Year candidate and in a thin field of rookie drivers. He should walk away pretty easily with that title considering how capable his team should be.  However, we caution against putting too high expectations on Herbst. He'll likely come up somewhat short of what last season's ROTY winner, Carson Hocevar, accomplished as the learning curve will be steep.

4. Cole Custer            

Car: No. 41

Owner: Haas Factory Team

Manufacturer: Ford

With the closure of Stewart Haas Racing at the conclusion of 2024, the new team of Haas Factory Team was born. SHR sold off all their Cup Series charters with the exception of one so the new team could field Custer in the No. 41 Ford. Custer has spent the last two seasons posting stellar numbers in the Xfinity Series and even winning a championship in that division. He returns to the Cup Series to reboot his NASCAR career and take another run at NASCAR's top division. However, there are a lot of concerns and question marks stirring. Custer's previous stint in the Cup Series was anything but a success and his best campaign was his rookie season and 16th-place finish in the points that season. Some drivers just can't make the adjustment from the Xfinity to Cup Series and that seemed to be the case with Custer. Additionally, this is a reorganization of a team that was already struggling to perform. Many valid questions about how competitive this team will be abound. Proceed with caution in terms of fantasy expectations. 

5. John Hunter Nemechek            

Car: No. 42

Owner: Legacy Motor Club

Manufacturer: Toyota

Nemechek got a chance to reboot his Cup Series career after it stalled for three seasons. The young driver got an opportunity with Legacy Motor Club, but it was a long tough season in 2024. He would scramble to just four Top-10 finishes and a distant 34th-place finish in the final driver standings. The 25.4 average finish for the year told the story. Legacy Motor Club struggled all the way around with lack of speed and cars so the drivers in this stable were on the backfoot most of last season. Lack of speed and poor qualifying (average start 27.3) were the major factors contributing to the struggles. Travis Mack joins the team and takes over as crew chief for the No. 42 Toyota. However, his task of improving this team will be a tall order. There was no identifiable pattern to Nemechek's limited success last season, no trends, no favorite tracks. It seems they just got lucky on occasion and hit the right setup to put a Top-10 or Top-15 car under Nemechek. That inconsistency should once again make this driver and team hard to forecast in 2025.

6. Ryan Preece           

Car: No. 60

Owner: Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing

Manufacturer: Ford

With the closure of Stewart Haas Racing at the conclusion of 2024, Preece's two-season association with the team came to an end. The journeyman driver attained his best points finish (23rd) and best Top-10 totals (5) for a season with SHR. The 34-year-old veteran will now look to move on and elevate his Cup Series career with a move to Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing for 2025. The team is expanding to a third car for the upcoming season and they've tabbed Preece to drive. With near 190 Cup Series starts to his credit, Preece brings the experience that RFKR is looking for in order to establish a new team. However, expectations need to be measured and reasonable for 2025 performance. Preece has never been a world beater at NASCAR's top level and certainly this is the best team situation he's had, but we don't expect any breakouts. He seemed to enjoy much of his success on short tracks last season, outside of those there were a lot of struggles.