This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Hard Rock Bet 300
Location: Homestead, Florida
Track: Homestead-Miami Speedway
Format: Oval
Length: 1.5 miles
Laps: 200
Hard Rock Bet 300 Preview
We've started to settle into a more traditional portion of the NASCAR schedule, but there haven't been many surprises in the Xfinity series despite the season kicking off with two superspeedways and a road course. This weekend, the teams will head to Homestead, a classic intermediate track. However, it will come far earlier in the calendar, which could be a different variable that may separate teams.
Key Stats at Homestead
- Number of Races: 31
- Winners from Pole: 5
- Winners from top five: 16
- Winners from top 10: 23
Previous Winners at Homestead
2024 – Austin Hill
2023 – Sam Mayer
2022- Noah Gragson
2021-Myatt Snider
2020- Chase Briscoe
2020- Harrison Burton
2019- Tyler Reddick
2018 – Tyler Reddick
2017- Cole Custer
2016- Daniel Suarez
Homestead often delivers very compelling racing because of the multiple grooves available for drivers to find their way around the track. Riding the boards at the top of the track is common, but not the only way to win. Similarly, we've seen some unpredictable trends in terms of the importance of starting position. The numbers above reflect that to a certain degree, but we've seen wild swings in recent years. In four of the last five races, the winners have spanned from ninth to 16th in starting position. However, from 2016 to 2020, four of the six winners were either on pole or started second. A final variable is a change in when the race is taking place. Homestead is traditionally a playoff race and was also the championship race foremost of the 2000s. The temperature will certainly be lower, which will affect tire wear and potentially car setup. The one thing that does seem certain is that the cream tends to rise to the top at the track.
NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Values for the Hard Rock Bet 300
Based on a Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Kyle Larson - $12,500
Austin Hill - $9,800
Jesse Love - $9,500
Connor Zilisch - $9,300
Sam Mayer - $9,000
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Ryan Sieg - $8,200
Sammy Smith - $8,100
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Taylor Gray - $7,900
Christian Eckes - $7,800
Nick Sanchez - $7,600
Harrison Burton - $7,300
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Daniel Dye - $6,800
Matt DiBenedetto - $6,300
NASCAR Xfinity Series Picks for the Hard Rock Bet 300
Austin Hill- $9,800
Connor Zilisch - $9,300
Sammy Smith - $8,100
Taylor Gray - $7,900
Christian Eckes - $7,800
Daniel Dye - $6,800
For those who read the Truck Series preview, there's a very similar choice to make in building out a roster on DK because of Kyle Larson's outlier salary. The choice is to build through Larson – not a bad strategy based on his win Friday night and his obvious superiority to the rest of the field – and set up a stars and scrubs roster and build through the middle tiers.
The optimizer suggests the latter is the better option, as Hill is projected just as well as Larson. The rest of that lineup would be similar to what we've built in the early portions of the schedule, as the rookies remain reasonably priced. Eckes and Gray have been the most consistent, so they appear in our sample lineup.
One driver we probably haven't given enough attention to early on is Sammy Smith, who has an average finish of 10.4 through four races. That's not outstanding, but it is the best mark of his career. He's been steady and has also experienced some success at Homestead throughout his career by starting 10th and fifth on the grid in his two starts.
A number of punt options do stand out on our optimizer, including DiBenedetto and Josh Williams. Daniel Dye is also worth considering thanks to his decent form in recent races (17th, 19th and 12th-place finishes). Some combination of those drivers will likely be necessary for any lineup including Larson.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Best Bets for the Hard Rock Bet 300
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 2:00 PM ET Saturday
Outright Winner – Austin Hill (+800), Connor Zilisch (+1500)
Larson is the runaway favorite, but his odds (generally around -135) are tough to swallow given the big field and the emerging talent in the Xfinity series. That leads us back to Austin Hill, who has finished with points in all six stages he's raced at the track while never finishing worse than ninth. Add in his 101 laps led (82 in 2024), and he's a good option.
Zillisch's season-long stats aren't all that impressive, but he's really hit his stride since superspeedways have been left in the rearview mirror. He's started inside the top four in each of the last three races and should convert that into a win in the near future.
