This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Bet MGM 300
Location: Concord, N.C.
Course: Charlotte Motor Speedway
Format: 1.5-mile quad-oval
Laps: 200
Bet MGM 300 Race Preview
The Xfinity Series returns after a two-week hiatus and will take its place as one of the featured races in one of the best weekends for motorsports of the year. That makes it a good time to briefly catch up on what we've seen through 12 races. Due to multi-time winners and drivers ineligible for the playoffs with wins (Kyle Larson and Aric Almirola), only six playoff spots are currently locked in. Sheldon Creed holds the final playoff spot, but with a 12-point cushion over Daniel Dye with both Taylor Gray and Nic Sanchez with points. That leaves plenty to drive for as we round into the second half of the regular season.
Key Stats at Charlotte Motor Speedway
- Number of races: 79
- Winners from pole: 13
- Winners from top-5 starters: 44
- Winners from top-10 starters: 59
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 6
Previous 10 Charlotte Winners
2024 – Chase Elliott
2023 - Justin Allgaier
2022- Josh Berry
2021 – Ty Gibbs
2020- Kyle Busch
2019- Tyler Reddick
2018- Brad Keselowski
2017 – Ryan Blaney
2016 fall- Joey Logano
2016 spring- Denny Hamlin
As is the case in the Cup Series, this is one of the longer and more prestigious races on the calendar for the Xfinity Series. The recent winners list makes that clear, as the majority of the recent winners are seasoned and even Hall of Fame level drivers on Sunday. That said, this isn't the weekend to we're likely to see a dark horse emerge for the race win.
As for manufacturer, Chevy has been on a recent run, having been the winner each of the last three years. However, each of the three manufacturers has had good stretches recently, so there isn't likely to be a big advantage from that perspective.
Qualifying is important, but not determinative. In the last 10 years, only two winners have come from pole. Meanwhile, six have come from inside the top five and only two outside of the top 10.
RotoWire NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Bet MGM 300 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
William Byron - $11,500
Justin Allgaier - $11,000
Chase Briscoe - $10,500
Tier 2 Values
Sam Mayer - $10,000
Sheldon Creed- $9,300
Brandon Jones - $9,000
Sammy Smith- $8,500
Carson Kvapil - $8,100
Tier 3 Values
Taylor Gray - $8,000
Harrison Burton - $7,500
Daniel Dye - $7,400
Tier 4 Values
Jeb Burton - $6,900
Anthony Alfredo - $6,600
Kyle Sieg - $6,300
Brennan Poole- $5,900
NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Picks for the MGM 300
William Byron - $11,500
Sam Mayer - $10,000
Taylor Gray - $8,000
Harrison Burton - $7,500
Anthony Alfredo - $6,600
Kyle Sieg - $6,300
When Cup Series drivers are in the Xfinity pool, it often comes down to a choice between building through them with a stars and scrubs approach, or fading them for a more balanced lineup. This week is different for a few reasons. William Byron is appropriately the highest-priced driver in the field, but his price is not prohibitive. There are also several Tier 4 drivers that are in decent positions to deliver solid scores.
Byron has been fairly dominant at Charlotte in the Cup Series. He's qualified inside the top five in each of his last five races there and has finished inside the top four on three occasions in that span. He's a pretty obvious choice to build through. Allgaier would also be a solid choice, the fairly limited price difference between he and Byron has me leaning toward the latter.
Most of the options in Tier 2 are strong choices, so it's mostly about making things fit salary wise. Mayer is worth prioritizing based on his strength at intermediate tracks. He finished fifth at Las Vegas in the spring and fifth at Texas in early May, both of which are comparable tracks to Charlotte. In his three races at Charlotte, he has third and fourth-place finishes.
The story is similar for Gray. He was excellent at Texas, finishing second after qualifying 12th. He moved backwards after qualifying second at Las Vegas, but he has speed on intermediate tracks and finished 12th in his only race at the track in the Xfinity Series.
Harrison Burton is another strong driver on intermediate tracks and has also been on a heck of a run by logging three straight finishes inside the top eight. He's one of the top values of the weekend.
From there, it's time to go bargain hunting. All of the Tier 4 options are relatively strong, with Sieg and Jeb Burton being my favorite pairing.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Best Bets for the Bet MGM 300
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10:00 AM ET Saturday
Race Winner – William Byron (+350), Sam Mayer (+1100)
Top Five finish – Sam Mayer (+130)
Even before qualifying, there isn't much value in the available lines. My favorite drivers to target follow the same logic as the DFS section. Mayer has been in strong form and a consistent finisher at Charlotte during his Xfinity career, but isn't priced anywhere near the range of Justin Allgaier. That makes him a driver to target.
There may be some more lines that become available following qualifying, but this isn't the best track to go value hunting on at sportsbooks because the chances of a darkhorse win are diminished relative to some of the other tracks we see throughout the schedule.
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