This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
GOVX 200
Location: Avondale, Arizona
Course: Phoenix Raceway
Format: Oval
Length: 1 mile
Laps: 200
NASCAR Xfinity Series GOVX 200 Preview
We've turned the corner from some of the wild card tracks on the schedule to some of the more traditional ovals. That begins this weekend at Phoenix Raceway. The first few races have gone more or less as expected with Richard Childress Racing showing dominance at Daytona and Atlanta and phenom Connor Zilisch taking home the win at COTA. That has three playoff spots already locked in, putting a premium on winning races early on in the new season.
Key Stats at Phoenix Raceway
- Number of Races: 46
- Winners from Pole: 11
- Winners from Top 5: 38
- Winners from Top 10: 41
Previous Winners at Phoenix Raceway
2024- Riley Herbst
2024- Chandler Smith
2023- Cole Custer
2023- Sammy Smith
2022- Ty Gibbs
2022- Noah Gragson
2021- Daniel Hemric
2021- Austin Cindric
2020- Austin Cindric
2019- Justin Allgaier
Track position is king in Phoenix, as the stats make clear. If we use the 10-race sample from above, no winner came from starting worse than 11th on the grid and six gave come from inside the top three. That offers more predictability than we've seen to begin the season. Betting on chaos to come through is less likely to pay off, so we'll need to rely more purely on projected mispricing. Keep a close eye on qualifying results at 12:30pm ET on Saturday.
NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Values for the GOVX 200
Based on a Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Justin Allgaier - $10,700
Alex Bowman - $10,300
Jesse Love - $10,000
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Sheldon Creed- $9,500
Connor Zilisch - $9,300
Austin Hill - $9,000
Sammy Smith - $8,800
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
William Sawalich - $8,000
Nick Sanchez - $7,800
Christian Eckes - $7,600
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Ryan Sieg- $7,400
Daniel Dye- $7,100
Jeb Burton- $6,900
NASCAR Xfinity Picks for the GOVX 200
Justin Allgaier - $10,700
Sheldon Creed- $9,500
Nick Sanchez - $7,800
Christian Eckes - $7,600
Ryan Sieg - $7,400
Jeb Burton - $6,900
As the season progresses, it's likely that the optimal builds will move more toward stars and scrubs builds. For now, several of the fast rookies are underpriced, which gives the opportunity to build through drivers in the middle of the price pool with one or two elite drivers and a punt.
Starting from the top, Jesse Love is a solid selection to build around. In his two races at Phoenix last season, he qualified sixth and seventh while finishing sixth and second, respectively. He may not provide a massive score, but he's going to drive a good race and has shown a lot of speed this season. Allgaier would be the other clear option in Tier 1. He's qualified well at the track and also shown the ability to cut through the field after he started in 37th only to finish second in the fall race of 2024.
Creed is another high-priced driver to build lineups through thanks his qualifying results at Phoenix, never starting outside the top 10 and inside the top five of three of his last four trips to the track. We have to at least mention Zilisch after his showing last weekend at COTA, but he's likely to be very popular and is my least favorite driver of Tier 2. Selecting multiple drivers from this tier is another way to go, thanks to some projected value options.
Tier 3 consists of impressive and fast rookies. I'd let qualifying and roster construction dictate which drivers ultimately hit my lineup. Without that context, Sanchez would be my pick. He has a strong history at the course in the Truck Series finishing fourth and 10th while qualifying seventh and third.
To round things out, we can turn to two veterans who have had moderate degrees of success at the track and project to be values in our Optimizer in Ryan Sieg and Jeb Burton.
Best Bets for the GOVX 200
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 7:00 PM ET Friday
Outright Winner
The favorites: Justin Allgaier (+350), Jesse Love (+800)
Longshot: Christian Eckes (+4000)
Odds are available at several different books, so be sure to shop around. My favorite value on the board is Love, for most of the same reasons we discussed in the DFS section. He has shown strong speed this season and has shown the ability to qualify well. Straight up, Allgaier is more likely to win the race, but Love is a value given that he's relatively buried down the field.
Eckes is my longshot choice for those willing to take on a lot of risk. He's shown pace in the Truck Series in the past. We should be getting to his style of racing in the next several weeks, as he's primarily had success on short and intermediate tracks. His odds will slowly start to creep down, so this is a good shot at value.
